The European Union is Gasping for Breath and May Collapse
The European Union appeared on the scene 50 years back. It will not be wrong to say that it was built on the ruins of World War II and the European powers thought that they would henceforth unite and put their differences on the back burner. WW II was a watershed in European history, as for the second time in 2 decades, it was the playground of dictators who set entire Europe afire. Hitler and Mussolini were part of this scenario.
But during the last 5 decades, nothing has happened that can show that the EU experiment is a success. A lot of this has to do with economics and the poorer EU states of East Europe. These states have to be bailed out by stronger economies like Germany. The German state is now the powerhouse, that runs the EU. This was not acceptable to the UK and so they left. This is the first break but cracks are appearing all over. Germany achieved in modern Europe something Hitler could not achieve in his lifetime. The German state virtually runs the EU and is the powerhouse, but again it is sitting on a keg filled with explosives which may blow up at any time.
Apart from economic inequality, the induction of a million refugees professing the Islamic faith has upset the delicate balance of religion and the state.For long the Pope and others had denied Turkey a membership of the EU simply because they did not want to upset the EU as a bastion of Christianity. Turkey had applied to the EU in 1987. But with a million and a half Muslims refugees, the bastion of Christianity is breached.
Refugees and Birthrate.
One aspect that is often overlooked is the role of refugees in Europe. The refugees are from the war-torn lands of the Middle East and North Africa and 99% of them profess the Islamic faith.The Germans perhaps committed a mistake in taking in more than a million Muslim refugees. This has been adversely commented upon by Donald Trump.These refugees in the years to come are going to multiply and will become a significant percentage of the population. The birth rate of the EU nations is well below the required rate to sustain a population and in the decades to come these Muslims will call the shots. Their birth rate is many times higher. Even if a small minority of them take to activities against the state, the Germans will have thousands of Jihad believers in their own country. The pot will then start boiling.
The EU needed labor and the quickest source was the refugees. Much Earlier, Germany had been importing " guest workers" from Turkey. Europe always needed labor. Hence the decision to give asylum to the refugees. But the ISIS is a fact of life and it has an indoctrinated cadre. There is every chance that many of this cadre have infiltrated into the EU. The result is the carnage at Nice, Paris, Berlin etc. Add to this the low birth rate of the European women. The required birth rate is 2.1 to sustain a population, but the EU birth rate is much lower. The writing is on the wall.
The economic disparity between the Eastern bloc and the western bloc is a source of friction.The East European countries are also being subsidized by Germany and to a lesser extent by France. How long will this continue? One can only see an economic collapse coming at some stage. Greece is the first and many Balkan nations are in the same boat. Italy and Spain's economy is also rusted. The only strong economy is that of Germany which now literally runs the EU.
Another significant aspect is the rise of the right-wing parties in Western Europe. They already have a significant presence, but a few years down, their appeal will go up, as terrorist attacks increase. Europe needed labor, so they compromised but there is a world of difference in culture and ethos and integration is just not possible.
A significant part of the population is with the extreme right and men like Geert Wilder and Marine Le Pen cannot be written off. They may not win now, but a decade from now it well could be a different story.
The future of the EU is not all that rosy. In the years to come the right wing parties may steal the lead, the EU will just collapse. Donald Trump was right when he mentioned that the European Union is obsolete. Nothing has happened to think that it will succeed. A decade from now the cracks which are showing will widen. It is looking like a sick old man.A bigger problem is the economic one. The EU has not brought in prosperity for everybody and there is an economic imbalance. This is likely to go up and coupled with the refugee crisis may well spell the doom of the EU. Italy and 5 other countries like Belgium, Cyprus, Lithuania, Slovenia, and Finland may be next on the cards after the UK.