The First Democratic Socialist U.S. President in 2020?
Socialism May Be Arriving
There are few studies that have shown that in the 2020 election, should events align up, President Trump could be dumped. While polling the Democratic candidates is mostly a folly with the election one year away, some conservatives have sounded alarm bells.
Socialism is not bad. It is not like communism or fascism. Yes, the state does erode some freedoms for the good of all. Many countries are happy with it. The appeal for the people is that services are available to all and paid through higher taxes. For instance, in countries where there is universal healthcare, payroll taxes are hovering at 40-50% of wages for those services. Taxes on the rich are also WAY higher because they can afford to pay them. It appeals to those poor and middle incomers.
Today, the income disparity between the rich and everyone else is the highest it has been. Trump gave the rich a permanent tax cut, while everyone else just got a temporary income surge. Themes of universal medical care, pay-off of college loans, Green energy, all have great appeal for many of the X-Generation and Millennial voting age groups (people born after 1965). They appeal to the newest voting group, post-Millennials (born after 1997). They may appeal to many of the Baby Boomers now nearing or in retirement.
In past elections, the older generations more or less dictated how voting turned out because they actually voted. However, in the 2020 election, Pew research shows that if the Millennials vote 70%, not 62%, as in 2016, they have the largest voting block. If you add in the X-Generation and post-Millennial's into the mix, these voters will determine the next president.
Of the Democratic hopefuls, Biden, Sanders, and Warren, are polling the best. Biden is really old school (and he is old) and middle of the road, pragmatic. His appeal remains highest, but has not climbed much. Warren, on the other hand, could be the first woman to be president. She has been touting many socialist agendas and the appeal to younger voters is strong. They identify more with her because she is much younger and many of them have student debt. Sanders, like Biden, is from old school but is a real socialist. His popularity in 2016 was quite shocking as young people supported him. In 2020, this is not the case because of Biden and Warren. Warren's popularity is growing more and more.
Should Warren win in 2020, the host of socialist-like policies would come also. As crazy as it may sound, if enough of the younger generation voters are registered and actually vote in large percentages for her, it could happen. Of course, this presumes that all of these younger generation voters will vote for a Democrat, which is not accurate.
The Trump Factor
The only thing that is constant between now and 2020 is POTUS. You either hate him or love him. There is the middle voters that swing left or right, but their numbers are smaller. With Trump being largely unpopular with Democratic voters and many independents for policy and personal reasons, one can see how the election could turn out if turn out against him is high.