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The Next Middle East War is Coming

Updated on June 4, 2020

The flash point for the next Mideast war is the U.S. sponsored peace plan between the Jews and Palestinians. The latter, has already denounced the plan that Trump states will solve the world's greatest problem. It gives the Palestinians very little, while it gives Israel the West Bank to annex they took from Jordan in 1967.

Israel is now going ahead, despite dire warnings from Turkey, Jordan, and other Arab nations not to do so. For doing so, will ignite a conflict in the near future. The king of Jordan is threatening to cut relations and to be ready for war, even though, Jordan's military would be unable to do so alone. But they are not alone.

Turkey, a NATO country (I think in name only, at this point), has one of the strongest military forces in the region and its leader has ideas of expansionism, much like Russia has, that is, to make Turkey a major player in the region. Right now, a conflict is being waged in Libya between the Turkish backed proxies and the Russian backed proxies. Turkey has sent in numerous Turkish military forces while Russia has sent in its military hardware and "special forces".

After NATO toppled the Qaddafi regime in 2011, the country tried to become a democracy but failed. It then turned into two armed camps, one supported by the UN (and Turkey, Qatar, Italy), the other, by Russia, Egypt, UAE, Jordan, Sudan. The UN approved group is the GNA, the latter, the LNA. The GNA is pro-democracy while the LNA is more leftist orientated. While the LNA controls much of the eastern part of Libya, the GNA, has a growing ability to seize more of that area. In the meantime, Russia, has sent in Su-22 and Mig 29's and up to 1500 Wagner special forces to solidify the LNA, which has been giving up territory along the coastline and in Tripoli. Turkey, has deployed some troops there as well and has used drone strikes to great effectiveness in this small scale war numbering in the thousands on each side.

I suspect, Russia, at some point, will pull out and allow Turkey to take over much of the Libyan coastline where the cities are. This will embolden Turkish desires to create a new military front with Algeria and Egypt. Turkish leaders have already stated that if Israel annexes the West Bank, a red line has been crossed and Turkey will act militarily. The UAE has basically told Israel that in doing so will cause turmoil in the Mideast.

Turkey bluntly told Israel that "Turkey will not allow the annexation of the West Bank" and they are the only ones who speak for the Palestinians in Gaza. But what exactly will Turkey do as Israel starts the annexation process? Will Turkey act to intervene covertly with supplying weapons to those in Gaza and Jordan? Will it act overtly to demonstrate its position? Will Turkey and the UAE with other Arab countries create a coalition to thwart the annexation with a war?

This is the next war coming to that region and could begin at anytime.


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