How And Why Hillary Will Defeat Trump In 2016.
An Election To Remember
The begginning .
Donald Trump accomplished what most political commentators, pundits and people in general though impossible, myself included.He won the primaries in a strong primary field that included many of the stars in the Republican Party, many of whom most people thought would be favorite to win the general election regardless of whom the Democratic candidate would be. Trump Defeated Jeb Bush who jumped into the race with an astonishing amount of money at his disposal of about one hundred million dollars. He thought that would allow him to drown his adversaries before they even know what hit them in a Colin Powell Shock and Awe strategy. Scott Walker having defeated the labor unions in his state and fended off attempts by the Democrats to remove him by using recall, which he won handily and in so doing became one of the darlings of the right was eliminated early on. Marco Rubio was seen as the Obama equivalent of the Republican party. Many thought even though he was a one term senator since he was elected on the shoulders of the tea party movement and had such a compelling life story would be able to get the support of a broad spectrum of the GOP. Such as the establishment, tea party, conservatives, moderates (not many left in the party). But he, like John Kasich the very successful Governor of Ohio a swing state critical to winning the election was vanquished by Trump. As well as Chris Christie who could have been a serious contender in 2012 if he had run but chose not to do so.
How Did He Do It?
It is very popular these days to say that the political environment is ripe for outsider candidates.Citing the fact of the low overall approval of the congress, politicians and the government in general, many people say the whole country wants to throw out the career politicians and elect ordinary men and women into office.That is true to a certain extent, but its importance and results are exaggerated by the people that have an agenda that goes beyond the Republican and Democratic parties, or even the Liberal and Conservative movements.These people, in my opinion, fall into two different categories. The talking heads, whose only interest is to fill their bank accounts and become extremely wealthy at the expense of the simple minded. Such as Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Dick Morris, Matt Drudge and their clones on one side, and the principled, honest, extreme right wing ideologues such as Mark Levin and others.What these people have in common are two things, the fact that the Republican party is just a vehicle of convenience to achieve their goals and if its demise advances their cause they are fine with it. And the roughly 20 or thirty million people who follow them.What these people have done over the past decade or so is to destroy Ronald Reagan's Big Tent Party. Moving the GOP so far to the right that all moderates and minority groups had to leave the party or were expelled and replaced it with a party base constituted and controlled by the same twenty or thirty million of their followers.These are the people that gave Donald Trump the nomination.
Trump crushed his primary opponents.
Here are some facts that the Republican establishment knows because they have been trying to take down the Clintons for decades now, and Trump's ego and narcissism don't allow him to see.The Clintons are not Low energy Jeb, Little Marco, or Lying Ted.They are the toughest players in the game .They will throw the great Clinton machine as well as the Obama Machine and the Democratic machine against him.They are united as can be since the Clintons want the White House, and Obama needs them to preserve and enhance his legacy. And the Media will be one thousand percent against him and will scrutinize his every word unlike during the primaries.Why? Because what is generically referred to as "The Media" is made up of men and women who have a soul and a conscience and see in this sorry excuse of a human being a real danger to humanity.
Your vote counts
As a result.
As a result of the circumstances in which Donald Trump won the nomination, what should have been an advantageous situation for the Republican party when entering the general election stage of the race or at least an even opportunity became Advantage Democrats.The Republican establishment knew that. That is the actual reason they fought Trump's nomination to the bitter end. They know he can't win a general election. It's a simple math problem There are not enough voters for such a candidate to win the election, and unlike those who don't care if the party gets destroyed, they do want to win the election and the presidency because they believe another Democratic administration will be devastating for the country.How do they know Donald Trump can't win the presidency? Because there is a pool of voters from which each party will extract votes Trump will get no more than about 5 to 10 percent of the black vote. At the most 20 percent of the Hispanic vote, the women vote has him behind by double digits, the only group where he is ahead is older white men.Even he has made the determination that his only path to victory is for all those who have never voted or haven't voted in decades along with the ever pandered to religious voters who stayed home in the last couple of election cycles come out to vote in extraordinary numbers and support him. Hence all the dog whistles he is employing to entice white supremacists and nativists.The other reason Republicans face an uphill battle is an advantage in electoral college votes that Democrats have before even any vote is cast.
So, should Hillary start shopping for new curtains for the White House?
The answer is no. Because the unforeseen could happen,an unexpected tragic event could give the election to The Donald,every single uneducated white voter could go out and vote and therefore counter the advantage Hillary has with minorities.But she does have the upper hand in an election that could have been a lot more competitive if the Republican Party would have nominated someone who even if not growing the party at least not alienate great portions of the electorate while motivating the other party. In other words someone who is not a bigot, a racist, a xenophobe and a misogynist .