Trump and the Coming Election
The race for the White House has begun. The general election is due towards the end of the year and the outcome will have an impact around the world. Several Democrats are vying for their party's nomination and have been campaigning over the last year. At the moment it is not clear who will be the nominee of the Democratic party to challenge Trump. To people outside the United States, it appears that the two main contenders are Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Unfortunately to my way of thinking, both these candidates are lackluster and in case they are opposing Trump, the chances that he will win are bright.
Is Trump a great president? It should be understood that a great president comes once in 50 years and there hasn't been a great president after Franklin Roosevelt. There have been competent presidents like general Ike General 'Íke'Eisenhower but most of the presidents have been mediocre and have allowed the United States to slide down in global esteem.
The Democratic national convention where the party will name its nominee for president and vice president will be held from 13th July to 16th July. The Republican convention happens later between 24th August and 27th August. Technically President Trump is not the official Republican candidate until it is announced in the convention.
There does not appear to be any second thought that President Trump will win the nomination of the Republican party. Once both the parties have announced their candidates, the nonpartisan Commission on presidential debates will run three presidential debates beginning from 29th September with two more in October. The vice presidential debate will take place on seventh October in Utah.
A point worth noting is that the popular vote, the sheer number of votes received by each candidate will have nothing to do with determining the winner of the November election. That is the reason that President Trump, despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton still sailed into the White House.
One good thing about the American election is that the system gives greater weight to smaller states. This means a presidential candidate must get a spread of votes across the nation to claim victory.
There is a lot of opposition to Trump and his policies in America but at the same time one must also point out that the President has a hardcore support base as well. This support base is likely to come to his rescue in the coming election. Add to this the lackluster challengers from the Democratic party, it looks like giving the advantage to Trump.
Trump has already made history by facing a trial for impeachment. Given the numbers, it was always on the cards that the prosecution will fall through. One factor going in favor of Trump is the economy. Though a large body of US and international leaders have been critical of Trump, several key economic and political fundamentals are currently acting like tailwinds to help him in his re-election bid.. The economy is robust and in very good shape for the last 120 months.
Another factor going in favor of Trump is that normally a sitting president retains the Presidentship. Therefore Trump has a bright chance to win the election towards the end of 2020. The Senate trial for impeachment appears to be a minor hiccup. This trial has united Trump's supporters and they would like to ensure that their man wins the coming election.
When we look back to history one can see that Trump is not a great president. What is apparent at the same time is that he is the best man available at the moment. The likely nominee of the Democratic party does not have the charisma to take on Trump. The race appears to be between two mediocre people and the winner is the one with the lesser negative points.