Trump vs Erdogan
Does Turkey need the USA?
The real cause of the trump Erdogan disagreement
Before getting down to who wins the duel, let's see how the duel came to be there and what everyone will need to get to be considered a winner.
Erdogan may be the underdog in this fight but he has bargaining power. Despite his popularity in Turkey and many strong middle eastern and European nations, Turkish membership in NATO is key to the fight for middle eastern peace and consequent European security.
A conflict between NATO allies is not a common occurrence and if it happens, there has to be a serious underlying root cause, in this case, Russia. Brunson's detention has been here for nearly two years now but it was not the cause of double tariffs on Turkish metal imports. A close look at the Trump administration reveals that they had this in place waiting for the slightest stir.
The extradition of Fetullah Gullen and the release of Andrew Brunson are minor issues here. The peak of the disagreement VP Mike Pence's who is an evangelical sent a tweet after attending an Evangelical meeting attended by Brunson's daughter. It is obvious that Trump's real concern is not the Pastor, it is actually keeping the American pride while preventing a Russian foothold in the middle east.
Remember Turkey went ahead to invest in Russian military defense systems against the congressional vote which really angered the Trump administration. Latest speeches by the Erdogan leadership also seem to suggest a possible shift in NATO alliance.
Trump's Position
Diplomatic policies in the Trump administration seem to be performing way better than economic policies. Trump's economic policies are the cause of his administration's recent fallout with NATO states. Despite the US's strong military and economic power, NATO states are necessary for survival and Trump has no leverage over Erdogan on this front.
The only bargaining power that will help Donald Trump to win this duel is focussing on straining the Turkish-Russian alliance which will only happen if he disarms the PKK which Erdogan considers a terrorist organization. The sanctions cannot put enough pressure on Turkey to make Erdogan back down, they still have a strong market with EU states which are very easily shaken by the threat of the slightest loosening of Turkish borders.
Erdogan's position
Reccep Tayyip Erdogan is still a darling among his people. Europe considers him the best enforcer of Turkish border security which is key to their security. Their position in NATO is considered the West's best chance at gaining a foothold in the middle east, a position currently on great demand considering the Russian entry, on this fronts, he considers himself untouchable by Donald Trump.
However, the economic impact of strained relations with America is just too costly for Turkey, a simple tweet declaring the Tariff increase by President Donald Trump was enough to send the Lira nose-diving by up to 20%. Metal exports and handmade guns are one of Turkey's biggest earners and the USA happens to be the largest importer, a fallout on these fronts would be economically fatal.
What to expect
The two countries cannot afford the extremes of a continued disagreement, they need each other. Trump has proved himself as a great diplomat and because of this, he is likely to back own silently by reducing the Tariff but retaining the hold on Fettullah Gullen as a show of strength and human rights concerns.
Erdogan, on the other hand, will retain a strong position but he will definitely have to give up Brunson for the sake of peace. However, the extradition of Fethullah Gullen is not going to happen. The final verdict may be called a win-win or lose-lose, no one can afford the extremes here.
