Trump's War with Iran
Long ago, another Republican president, George Bush, listened to his intelligence communities that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD), such as deadly Sarin gas and nuclear weapons. Bush also wanted to complete the job of his dad, another Bush, refused to do. That is, invade Iraq and take down Saddam, the countries president regime. Years later, the truth came out. All of the PR bluster and public rhetoric to the world to build a military coalition was a lie. There were no WMD in Iraq, especially nuclear WMD. Yet, the world bought the lie, created a coalition and invaded and took down Iraq's leader and entered in a quagmire that still exists today.
It seems like deja vu today. In April, 2019, the US Foreign Relations Committee got an intel report stating Iran posed no threat to American interests in the region. A month later, May 3rd, the same committee got a report indicating Iran posed a serious threat to US and allied interests, yet, it was devoid of any details as to what specific threats existed and where.
Based up on that, President Trump, or his advisers, got his support to send a new carrier task force and B-52's to the UAE region near Iran. The US Foreign Relations Committee, still has not been provided the details about the threat even though they have requested a closed hearing on the matter.
Iran's rhetoric has matched Trump's. Trump has always hated Iran, in general, got out of the nuclear agreement Obama entered into (which was questionable), seeks to somehow have a regime change hopefully from within due to the sanctions imposed. The sudden build up without substantial reason will be just a bluff of American power. Is it to distract the US public away from the daily Trump investigations? Show his supporters he is keeping a promise? Is the Iran threat real at this time? None of the usual committees briefed about a military build-up know what is going on in the Persian Gulf area.
Adding more fuel to fire were the recent oil tanker attacks in that region that mysteriously occurred. According reports, some suspect it was a special Iranian hit squad that was sending a message that Iran can damage the infrastructure quite easily, whether it is tankers in port or transit, or the oil pipeline from the port. On this, Iran easily do this to disrupt oil supply to the West. They don't need nukes for this, they have rockets well within range and enough to overload the Patriot missiles sent there, where some would get through. They have many fast attack boats armed with anti-ship missiles that can approach a ship and fire and escape since they are small. Even if the missiles failed to sink the ship, the impact would raise the political stakes. Iran has a few subs that can plant deadly Chinese rocket mines in the sea lanes open to the world. While the Iranian threat has always been there, why has Trump suddenly sent a large amount of American military assets there?
Few really know why. Now, Trump, under the advice of CIA and Secretary of State, has developed a plan to send 120,000 soldiers to the region if Iran does something. This would not be an invasion of Iran, so, where would they go and for what reason? To defend Arab port facilities of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain? Seems like a lot of waste of money.
If you recall, Trump was always about reducing the American troop levels and overall military presence in the Middle East. He thought the war in Iraq was predicated on a lie (and it was), thought it was time to bring the troops home from Afghanistan. Like many times before, he has made a U-turn when it comes to Iran.
One cannot help but think Trump is going along reluctantly with the advice being given him by those more hawkish than he is, namely, Bolton and others. If America enters into another conflict based upon a lie, it will be a Iraq all over again. A war with Iran is not winnable no matter how you look at it.