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Why BJP is not bragging of victory in four assembly elections

Updated on September 21, 2014

Its been almost three months since the loksabha election results were announced in which Narendra Modi had swept the Bharathiya Janatha Party to power but the Modi magic seems to be existing still in many parts of the country.A continuing Modi mantra and a day by day weakening Congress could assure an easy victory for BJP in three states while a strategical campaigning helmed by Amit shah could make a victory in Jammu Kashmir achievable .

Haryana : Congress's never lasting blunders

If there is any part of the country where Congress is pulling its opponents from a grave and jumping itself into the grave its no other place than Haryana. The situation in Haryana seems to be favourable for BJP in such a way that BJP which won merely 4 seats in 2009 in alliance with HJC is confident enough to go without the 3 year alliance of HJC which it had in loksabha.A party which had just 9% vote share in 2009 assembly election and 17% in 2009 loksabha elections has raised its vote share to 34.6% in 2014 loksabha winning 7 of the 10 seats in the state.Best part for BJP is that the good news is not only flowing from Congress instead the INLD too seems to be loosing some of its core base to BJP and on the other hand if BJP considers a prepoll alliance with INLD the combo may win with 3/4th majority.

It seems that after a string of wrong decision by the so called youth icon of congress the party supremo hasnt learnt from its drubbing defeat eventhough majority of them on the way down in the party has been screaming foul on the leadership and its decisions. Retaining Bhupinder Singh Hooda & shrugging of his critics too is a blunder due to which Birender Singh,one of the tallest leader in Haryana Congress has joined BJP .An already weakened Congress may not be able to survive the loss of a mass leader who could simply swing in 10 to 15 seats in his region. Along with several congress leaders 12 of INLD's former MLA's & 2 of its sitting MLA's too have switched sides to BJP. Eventhough BJP is at the receiving end citing its predictable victory the only aspect that could matter the party is the crowding of a lot of high rank leaders and overconfidence .

Maharashtra : BJP-Sena led Mahayuthi alliance was always the winner

If anyone has an impression that its just anti-incumbency against state & central government that had led bjp for a poll sweep in Maharashtra then you stand to be corrected. Its the grand mahayuthi alliance comprising of parties like RPI (A), Raju Shetti's Swabhimaani Paksha, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) and Shivasangram in addition to the Modi factor which had helped the NDA in Maharashtra to get the extra mileage and for no doubt was a clear winner from the day they announced the alliance.Eventhough BJP raised its vote share from 18% to 27.5% & Shiv Sena raised its vote share from 4% to 20.8% the rest of the parties in the alliance has given its fair amount of votes in each constituency to achieve a whooping 50% vote share resulting in 42 seats in the loksabha election.

The NCP Congress state government being an equally dissapointing government there is nothing much the opposition needs to campaign to get the message to the electorate of how bad the governance was.Still the Congress alliance will look out how the NDA alliance is going to do the seat sharing in such a grand alliance which mostly may not end up as all is well .Another matter to see will be the Chief ministerial candidate from the NDA for which Sena and BJP could do some hard bargaining and as far as BJP is concerned projected CM candidate is something which the party banks on till date.Earlier this year BJP has suffered a massive jolt in the loss of one of its greatest mass leader in Maharashtra Mr.Gopinath Munde.As of now if the BJP could manage to keep its alliance intact the Mahayukti alliance could be heading for a massive victory and on the other hand if the smaller parties fall out of the alliance still the party will have the numbers to form a government .

Jharkhand : Confident but cautious

In the case of Jharkhand BJP could be confident of a victory on the basis of its Loksabha performance but Jharkhand has always been giving unpredictable results.BJP had won 12 of the 14 seats in Loksabha from the state with 40.1% vote share but in 2009 too the BJP had won 8 of the 14 seats and yet couldnt reap advantage of it in the following assembly elections as the party could manage only 18 seats. However the good news for BJP is that it had raised its vote share from 27.53% in 2009 to 40.1% in the present loksabha while the congress declined from 15.02% to 13.3% & JMM reducing to 9.3% from 11.7%.

In another recent development a major faction of JVMP leaders joined BJP & party is seeing a possibility of bringing in Babulal Marandi back to its fold.This development came a day after JDP merged with BJP. Eventhough BJP is well placed to emerge victorious in the assembly elections as said before in Jharkhand any party could be confident but shall remain to be cautious.

Jammu-Kashmir : No doubt to be a tough battle

Jammu Kashmir assembly elections could be one of the most awaited election eventhough the election dates hasnt been declared yet due to flood situation in the state , but the BJP seems to be doing a campaign of lifetime and Mr.Amit Shah is in no mood to loose this time when the morale of the party cadre is at the peak after the General elections. BJP seems to be banking in a lot of strategies such as identifying constituencies of low voter turnouts especially in Kashmir as well as bringing back Kashmiri Pandits settled at different parts of the country & encouraging a voter registration campaign so as to ensure that any voter which could even have the slightest chance to vote for the party reaches the poll booth .

If the Loksabha gave a shocker to J&K government by winning 3 seats in Jammu & hitting an all time vote share of 40% assembly elections could also be another shocker for the NC especially after the people are'nt happy with the handling of the flood situation by the state & a word of a goodwill is being spread about the PM about how he had taken charge of the situation that too from very unexpected corners . Now the question could be whether to which way will the electorate flow , PDP or BJP .

The BJP still needs to counter a big problem . Projection of a CM candidate which should be favoured by both Jammu & Kashmir region . As of now the state should be concentrating more on controlling the flood situation & even health concerns which may arise as a result of this. Expectedly or unexpectedly the BJP seems to be gaining momentum in the state and every coming day there are some good words for the party in Kashmir including the withdrawal of Chinese troops in Ladakh eventhough fresh intrusions were reported later.

Jammu-Kashmir seems to be the toughest battle for BJP but the party seems to be doing the right campaigning only at this part of the country .

By Polls could never be indication

BJP had performed badly in the recent by polls but that doesnt neccesarily mean the party is going to take a beating in the comming assembly elections

  1. BJP is not a party winning depending just on leaders in its constituency {eventhough they are of much importance} , party always project a strong leader of goodwill to get the extra bit of votes. By polls always gives an advantage to the constituency led MLA's.
  2. All the 4 states which will undergo elections next month has strong anti-incumbency against the ruling Congress alliances

Keeping all the above points in mind it doesnt mean the party need not worry about the by-poll debacle . If the party needs to form its government in UP party should still go a long way eventhough the non contesting of BSP was also a reason contributing to the defeat of BJP . In Rajasthan too the party has to keep an eye on its governance . Loss in Gujarat in 3 seats seems to be a bit hyped as the party had retained 7 seats & the people are in no mood to reject the party in the state . The only concern should be that new CM Anandiben Patel should show she is as much as in charge of the state as the former CM & now PM Modi . The victory in Bengal is surely an inspiration for the party in Bengal but again keep in mind the seat was won by one of the most well known leader of Bengal BJP and so the party need to find stronger leader inorder to have a run for the next opposition in Bengal Assembly .


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    • sanjay-sonawani profile image

      Sanjay Sonawani 

      4 years ago from Pune, India.

      Very nice analysis. Thanks for sharing.


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