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Brexit: Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble on the Yellow Brick Road to Independence
The Brexiteers who manipulated England and, narrowly, Wales into a Leave vote may have won a battle but lost the war. The victory has destroyed a number of careers, in all parties, most of which deserved to be destroyed, along with the parties. Now it could threaten the British State as well as the Union.
A court decision could mean that the mythical Article 50, a provision designed with no intention of using it, and probably, like Westminster, unfit for purpose. could only be triggered after an unpredictable vote in Parliament. Assuming the court says Parliament must vote on it and Westminster does not rush through legislation to say the PM can trigger it without parliament some amusing pos- sibilities arise. Saying voting against it goes against the expressed will of the people begs questions about which people, the tyranny of the majority and whether the will of the people trumps ( or Trumps?) the sovereignty of Parlia- ment and why the settled will of Scotland is ignored. Voting for it increases the likelihood of Scottish independence, without necessarily bringing it any further forward and raises the possibility that even the English will realise they were conned (the clue is in the name of the ruling party).
A parliamentary Brexit vote raises constitutional and deeper questions and is as welcome to the government as the proverbial cranial aperture, but not having a Parliamentary vote also raises questions about the dictatorial powers of an unelected PM. Stop laughing.
If it came to a vote ”Labour” and the Tories, who, ironically pose as the anti- change party while threatening chaos, are about equally divided on the matter. It might be political suicide for either leader to impose a whip in either direc- tion so the SNP could hold the balance, and vote to keep the UK in the EU. This would lead to apoplexy in some quarters of the Tory and Labour parties
though it is unlikely any would die or even be hospitalised as a result. It could lead to moves to restrict the number of Scottish MPs further, and, less likely unfortunately, to demands that Scotland should be expelled from the United Kingdom.
But what if the vote was to leave despite uniform opposition from Scotland? There might be another surge in support for independence, and this could be ir- reversible. The Unelected Prime Minister has said she will not trigger article 50 till there is a uniform UK approach which means negotiating with the Scottish Government. This could delay Brexit indefinitely, unless a Tory Party Leader- ship contest, unlikely so soon after the last one, returns a PM who triggers it immediately, which will definitely increase support for Scottish Independence, and probably for Welsh Independence, though It is unlikely Cornwall will have a surge despite losing the EU funds on which so many there depend. Loyalty to their Duke and fear of losing their jobs will prevail.
The other forgotten player is the EU who could, in the event of a vote against Brexit, simply say that they do not accept this since it is clear the British people, except for Scotland, Norther Ireland and Gibraltar, voted to leave. At least one European leader has said the Brexit vote is irrevocable. This would lead to Remain campaigners echoing Brexiteers statements about the EU interfering in the affairs of Britain (The British press interfering in the extra marital and business affairs of its politicians is another matter). Brexiteers would be torn between applauding the EU for its commitment to democracy and telling them to mind their own business.
If the court decision is against a parliamentary vote Theresa the Unelected cannot duck responsibility for Article 50 and any effort to use Scotland as a way to stall for time would make Independence that bit more certain either in Scotland or as a result of Brexiteers demanding Scotland be ignored (SNAFU) or expelled. Perhaps in the end Westminster, or even England will decide losing Scotland is a price to pay and will complete ”taking back our country”. Labour will continue to fight anyone except the Tories preferring a Tory government to the possibility of power to a (gasp) Socialist leader. Scotland will continue to drift away from the rest of the UK and hopefully prove such a pain in the nether regions that Westminster expels us
What the recent Westminster orgy of genetically programmed and unfocussed incompetence has shown, apart from demonstrating the validity of the observa- tions in Tom Robinson’s song Yuppy Scum about how wealth and work corrode people so that they become what they hate, is that the British state as well as the Union is close to breaking. The tension between Little Englanders and Europhiles is splitting all the main parties down the middle: despite the Ref- erendum vote while SNP and independence supporters are split between those who hate the EU so much they would rather leave the EU and try to get Inde- pendence later and those who feel Independence must come first. Parliamentary vote or not these tensions will not go away.
Westminster, like all governments, likes to divide the opposition and so rule. This strategy will become harder with the present Brexit mess and it is likely that there will be more Anti-SNP propaganda in Scotland and more Anti- Corbyn propaganda in South Britain. The poor, elderly, disabled, unemployed and above all Immigrants will be demonised as London loses the Big Banks that have sustained it for decades followed by the exodus of Russian Oligarchs and rich citizens of right and left wing dictatorships as property prices there tumble. This will be blamed on all the Poor elderly etc.... Some generals cannot resist refighting old wars.