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Grade of A- in Predicting September Quakes!

Updated on November 12, 2012
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

Significant earthquakes (as determined by the USGS) for September 2012. The blue highlighted quake fell within the the first predicted window and the orange spot defines the 2nd (the only two above 6.5 magnitude) to fall inside the last window.
Significant earthquakes (as determined by the USGS) for September 2012. The blue highlighted quake fell within the the first predicted window and the orange spot defines the 2nd (the only two above 6.5 magnitude) to fall inside the last window. | Source

A Real Breakthrough (Now I've Gone and Done it)


As I suggested in a recent hub, I hadn't yet scored a breakthrough in reporting earthquakes, but I was expecting better accuracy in the near future. In August, there was a deadly quake in Iran that barely qualified as a significant event based on Magnitude alone and also barely made it inside the tail end of one of my predicted windows. But there were six such quakes of at least 6.5 Magnitude in that month so the results weren't really that significant (about 1.2Xs greater than expected). I was hoping for the trend in late August to continue into September, bringing a bit more significant quakes than the average (or more than four per month), but it resulted in just two such quakes.

The good news though is that both of those 7+ magnitude quakes occurred within two of four windows that I defined for that month in my last hub. The result of this rare success is that it equates to either a phenomenal amount of luck on my part or a strong implication of significance (more than 2.8Xs greater than expected due to chance alone). The results would have been a bit less significant if I hadn't added 110 more earthquakes to my astrological database (was 285, now at 295) and tweaked my prediction algorithms. From these changes I refined my predicted windows (making them of narrower focus and thus increasing the significance should a quake fall inside its boundaries). The proof as to whether or not this was a fluke will have to wait for more experiential data to flow under the proverbial bridge.



Shown above is a graph depicting the spikes of astrological aspects that define the centers of potential earthquake(s) of significance for the month of September of 2012. Below is a similar chart depicting the most likely times for earthquakes in October of 2012. The first window for October already had a quake in Colombia fall within it on the last day of September. In an update posted as a comment at the end of my last hub just 3 days before the quake, that country was second on my list of four possible countries within which I felt such a quake would be likely to occur. Unfortunately I didn't have my newer, more refined results before the quake of September 5th. If I had I would have suggested Oaxaca, Mexico as a possible location (about 900 miles northwest of Costa Rica, where that quake occurred).


Also, in the last comment/update to my hub that just preceded this one, I gave the window as centered on 1pm, GMT on October 1st, give or take 26 hours. Although the window opened 26 hours before this time, I now feel it will close four hours later, 30 hours after that time, or at 7pm, GMT on October 2nd. One possibility is that the quake that just occurred in Colombia could be a pre-shock to a larger quake (which may just happen before this first window in October ends). Peru, Chile, and Iran are other possible locations if a second quake occurs within this same window (I'm not saying that there will be another quake but I think the chances are still more than usual for another one occurring).

In order to facilitate publishing this hub as soon as possible, I will hold off going into detail about the other two small windows that follow the first one in October 2012 (I'll be using the comment section to give an update in the near future).


Recent center of 7+Magnitude seismic events (San Salvador on 8/27, Costa Rica 9/5, and Columbia 9/30)..  Are there still some more big ones to occur there in the near future?
Recent center of 7+Magnitude seismic events (San Salvador on 8/27, Costa Rica 9/5, and Columbia 9/30).. Are there still some more big ones to occur there in the near future?

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    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Prediction Update for October 2012: Two astrological windows, spanning about a day of time for each, are situated near the middle and end of the month. I have more confidence in the one at months end than I do for the one in the middle of the month due to the type of the planetary aspects involved. The less potent window centers on 10/16/12 at 1352 GMT (starting 10 hours before that and ending 16 hours after). My estimate of where a possible quake may happen during that time is Turkey, Iran, and Argentina. In the USA, the most likely locations for a possible earthquake during this period would be southern California, Alaska, Virginia, or Colorado. The window with the greater chance of an occurrence is centered on 10/29/12 at 1622 GMT (starting 11 hours before and ending 13 hours after). My estimate of where a possible quake may happen during that period is Italy (Avellino, Potenza, Campania, Calabria, or Toscana), Leeward Islands, or Pakistan. In the USA, the greatest chance of occurrence would be in the southern portion of California such as Santa Barbara or Mission San Juan.

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    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Prediction Update II for October 2012: Since my last update I've done much work to try and improve my ability to define likely windows that significant earthquakes are more likely to occur within based on astrological influences. The window in the middle of October 2012 now looks to be much wider than I'd earlier thought. The peak is still about the same time, now estimating that it should happen at around 15h30m GMT, but the window begins more than 2.5 days before (at about 23h30m GMT on the 13th) and ends about 14 hours after the peak (at about 5h15m GMT on the 17th). The median for this range of time is a day before the peak (15h30m GMT on the 15th, give or take 40 hours). The most likely locations for such a quake at the time of the peak would be in Turkey, Iran, Italy, Greece, or Argentina. In the United States, the most likely locations would (not surprisingly) be in Alaska or California. The picture for my other window at the end of the month has changed quite a bit since my last update, so I'll probably be posting another update around the 18th of October.

  • retrojoe profile image
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    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Prediction Update III for October 2012: Although the peak estimate for the next window is still the same (15h30m GMT on 10/16/12), I have now established that it begins quite a few hours earlier and ends later than I had presented in the last update. The median is now at 12h30m GMT on 10/15/12, give or take 48 hours (the window opens at 12h30m GMT or 7h30m CST on 10/13). As I related earlier, this is a window that I do not feel too confident about. In other words I give it about a 25% chance of their being a significant quake during its time span when the usual chances are about half of that (if the monthly average of four 6.5 magnitude or greater earthquakes occurs). The next few windows will be another story however. My upcoming prognostications for the end of October and the month of November are expected to be of greater importance (look for my next hub around 10/21/12). Another topic to be covered in my next hub will be how the lowest magnitude for a significantly strong earthquake is not set in stone but varies up or down a bit depending on location (the 6.5 magnitude floor for such events that I have earlier set as the defining point is only an average). The 6.7 magnitude quake that occurred at just past midnight (GMT) on 10/12 (or about 1.5 days before my upcoming window) was located in Indonesia. If it had occurred in Italy or Iran it would be a definite quake to label as significant. However, since Indonesia produces a greater number and more powerful earth movements than Italy or Iran does, I am considering raising the bar to 7.2 as the minimum magnitude for significant quakes in that seismic zone (more later).

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