How to pick a Grand National winner

The Grand National is only weeks away and everyone around you has suddenly become experts on horse racing.  Each conversation turns to the Grand National and the runners and jockeys.   You try to join it but worry that you may be making a fool of yourself   so, what do you say?  How can you pick a winner of the Grand National? Could you really shut up your best mate that has picked the winners of the last 3 Nationals?  Here are some facts, figures and statistics that could help you pick a winner and make you sound more knowledgeable the next time the conversation turns to the Grand National horse race.

The Grand National is a world famous horse race which is held at Aintree in the United Kingdom, and is ran over a distance of just over 4 miles. It is a handicap chase containing around thirty fences. Some of these fences are notorious for their severity, particularly Beechers Brook and The Chair. In recent years the horse racing authorities have worked in conjunction with animal welfare organizations to minimize the danger of these jumps, while still preserving them as formidable obstacles. The Aintree Grand National was first run in 1839 and featured a solid brick wall as one of the obstacles, but thank goodness this was abandoned after five years.

Looking back at the Grand National's statistics, some very interesting fact come to light. For example, only two greys have ever won this race, and the last mare to win was Nickle Coin in 1951. So already you can see that betting on a mare or a grey horse is not the way to go. Most Grand Nationals have around 40 horses running in them and this is enough to confuse most casual pundits. However a very useful thing to consider is that most of the time the winner comes from the first eight in the betting. So instead of 40 horses, just consider the first eight, this greatly increases your chances of picking the winner. From these horses that are in the top eight of the betting, you can again increase your chances of winning , by looking for the ones that have ran a race in the last month. In the past 20 years, all winners have ran a race within the previous 48 days, most of them actually running within the past month.

Another interesting fact about the winners of the Grand National over the years, is the age of the winning horse. By far in the lead, winners have been aged over 8, peaking at 9 and 10. The weight the horses carry is significant when picking a winner. Only two horse have ever carried over 11 stone, the very famous Red Rum, and Hedge-hunter. So, look very carefully at the weight the horses are carrying and if it is handicapped by having to race with more than 11 stone, don't bet on it.

Moving on now to the more coincidental statistics of the Grand National, and that is the names of past winners. Choosing a name that you like is the most popular way that the least experience gambler uses to hopefully pick the winning horse. So here are some interesting facts to help you make your choice. Since 1960 eight horses out of forty have had a name that begins with the letter 'R'. That's one fifth! I know what you are thinking, ' Yeah of course Red Rum won it three times.' Well I have only counted him once. Here are the others;

• Red Alligator, winner in 1968
• Red Rum, winner in 1973 1974 1977
• Rag trade winner in 1976
• Rubstic, winner in 1979
• Rhyme n Reason winner in 1978
• Royal Athlete winner in 1995
• Rough Quest winner in 1996
• Red marauder winner in 2001

Well that's all well and good but what if there are no horses begining with R . Then you may want to look at the second and third most popular, 'M' and 'L';

• Merryman II
• Maori Venture
• Mr Frisk
• Minnehoma
• Monty's pass
• Mon Mome
• Lord Gyllene
• Little Polveir
• Last Suspect
• Lucius
• L'Escargot

 So here are the statistics that will improve your chances of picking the winning racehorse in this year's Grand National.

1. The winner will be in the top 8 horses in the betting
2. The best horses will have ran a race in the last month,
3. 8 or 9 year olds horses win the most
4. Only two horses have ever carried more than 11 stone
5. The winner won't be grey
6. Don't back on a mare
7. The Horses name will begin with An 'R' 'L' or 'M'

Here's a couple of late statistics

1. The Jocky will have a birthday in May
2. The horse will be trained in Ireland