Mock Drafts are Stupid.
The NFL Draft is upon us.
Yup. The "Super Bowl of the Off-season" is finally upon us.
The single most important night of the NFL year is upon us.
The draft gave Peyton Manning to the Indianapolis Colts, Tom Brady to the New England Patriots, and Jamarcus Russell to the Oakland Raiders.
One of those things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong.
But that's the fun of the draft, it's anarchy.
224 picks which will change the landscape of the NFL for decades to come.
Will your team nail your first round pick like the Colts did with Peyton?
Will your team discover the ultimate diamond in the rough who will take your franchise from worst to first like the Patriots did with Brady?
Or will your team mimic my Oakland Raiders and completely screw the pooch with a pick like Russell?
It's so fun! I love the draft.
And you know what, it's only natural that people will speculate on what will happen.
Hell, I have an idea of how I think top first round will go this year, but I'm not going to waste my time making a mock.
Because they are wrong 100% of the time.
Imagine March Madness, except you didn't know the names of all of the teams or even how many games there are. Yeah. It's impossible.
You never know who's going to trade with who or what teams really want.
Sometimes it's really obvious.
Everybody knew the Colts were going to take Andrew Luck with the first overall pick, but that's because we spent four years hearing about how amazing he was.
The reality is that before NFL Network made the draft a gigantic event on prime-time television, it was already a circus.
Who knew that the New Orleans Saints were going to trade their entire draft for runningback Ricky Williams?
Who knew that the Vikings would trade into the first round three times last year?
Nobody. Not even the teams themselves knew.
So what sense does it make for us to lose our minds reading the opinions of people like Mel "I'll retire if Jimmy Clausen isn't a successful QB" Kiper and Mike "Tom Brady doesn't have the arm, the size, or the intangibles to be a starting QB" Mayock?
If we know for a fact that they won't be correct, why do we read them?
Because we want to get an idea of which players might get picked by which teams?
If you're that involved of a fan, then how come you don't just do the math by yourself?
The Texans pick first. They need several things, but mainly, a defensive lineman to compliment J.J. Watt, and a quarterback to replace Matt Schaub. Since this isn't a particularly strong QB class, you've gotta think they'll go defense first. So, if I had to bet, they'll probably take Khalil Mack or Jadaveon Clowney.
But see, that's just my thinking.
Maybe somebody wants to trade up.
Maybe they like Johnny Manziel.
Maybe they want to reunite DeAndre Hopkins with his collegiate teammate, Sammy Watkins.
And if they take any of those players, it drastically changes all of the other draft boards.
It's pointless to spend so much time working on something that will inevitably be incorrect anyway. It's like predicting the weather a year from now... or in Maryland during the spring.
And as I alluded to earlier, it isn't like the creators of said mocks are brilliant.
Mel Kiper and Mike Mayock are the most respected "draft analysts" in the business, but some of their analysis has been downright hilarious.
And to prove just how miserably inaccurate these two are when it comes to evaluating talent, I went to the magical realm of google and searched the following words.
Mike Mayock, Jamarcus Russell.
Mel Kiper, Jamarcus Russell.
And boy, oh, boy, did I find some great stuff.
Mayock said, "This year, I can't get over how good and talented JaMarcus Russell is. It just blew me away."
Kiper said, "Three years from now you could certainly be looking at a guy who is certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league . . . Nobody has an arm like JaMarcus Russell. Obviously, he'll need a little time. But you're talking about a 2-3-year period. Once he's under center, look out, because the skill level he has is certainly John Elway-like.
LOL. JOHN ELWAY-LIKE. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
Just for those of you who don't remember, Jamarcus Russell is not only the biggest bust in NFL history, but perhaps the very worst quarterback to ever put on a helmet.
I wouldn't even go that far. I think Raider fans would rather see Matt Flynn line up under center again than even hear the words "Jamarcus Russell".
What is it about LSU quarterbacks?
Enjoy the Draft.
I know that someone's favorite team will drop the ball and take a Jamarcus Russell or a Vernon Gholston, but I hope that team isn't your team (Unless you're a Broncos or Chargers fan).
Have a good night, be safe, and Go Raiders.
© 2014 Ryan Smith