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Overrated Fantasy Football Players 2012
ADP: Stands for Average Draft Pick according to ESPN's fantasy draft results.
Most Over Valued Players
These are players who are drafted in the top 5 rounds who on average been drafted higher than they are worth. Some players price tags are too high like purchasing a Walmart t-shirt for one hundred dollars. While others values have not been adjusted and put on sale or discount because of past performances.
Over Priced Quarterbacks
Cam Newton: Coming off a monster rookie season expectations are at an all time high. But duplicating those kind of number is a lot to ask for a second year player. Last year Newton ran the ball 126 times during the season for 706 yards and 14 touchdowns. He had the fewest attempts per touchdown among rushers with double digit scores and was one of only two rushers to score double digits touchdowns on less than 200 carries. The new addition Mike Tolbert in the running game should take pressure off Newton from rushing in goal-line situations. Given an off-season to learn the offense, expect Newton to stay in the pocket more often than not, resulting in lower rushing totals. I expect Newton's rushing numbers to be down in terms of rushing attempts and touchdowns ultimately hurting his fantasy value. ADP: 16.4
Alternative: Michael Vick ADP 37.8. Also gives fantasy players the edge of a running Quarterback, and don't forget he was highly coveted going into 2011 season.
Peyton Manning: It is 2012 people! Time to start giving the younger Manning some credit. With that being said I strongly believe Eli Manning is the better Manning to have on your roster this season. Remember, Peyton is coming back from a serious neck surgery (deemed career ending by several doctors) and is playing outdoors this season at Mile High Stadium. ADP: 38.5
Alternative:Eli Manning ADP: 27.4 If he can control his interceptions he could be fantasy gold this season. The talent and coaching is there to improve on his nearly 5,000 yard season in 2011.
Matt Ryan ADP: 61.6 Finished 8th last season among fantasy quarterback and looks to improve with the developing Julio Jones and ever so talented Roddy White at his rein.
Over Priced Running Backs
- Maurice Jones Drew - MJD's holdout has already cost him the season opener against the Vikings. There is no telling how long this hold-out will continue and if the new head coach Murlarky would welcome Maurice Jones Drew back into his starting role right away with the success of Jennings at running back. Holdouts never seem to end well for star running backs for example does Chris Johnson 2011 ring a bell? ADP:10.2
Alternatives: Darren McFadden ADP 21.2 & Stephen Jackson ADP 31.9 are both premiere backs that will yield a heavy workload.
- DeMarco Murray - Leg injuries that plague running backs never seem to vanish. Coming off a broken ankle last season, I do not believe the hype. ADP 21.8
Alternatives: Adrian Peterson ADP 22.0 & Micheal Turner ADP 35.0. Peterson is better candidate for a bounce back from injury and Turner is simply a safer choice than Murray.
- Matt Forte - ADP 15.3 Yes he was just given a multi-million dollar contract showing the Bears have faith in him. But given his durability concerns and Michael Bush deemed as the goal-line back there are serious questions about his productivity.
Alternatives: Shonn Greene ADP 67.8 Much safer choice at 68th overall. Hs far fewer career touches than Forte. Even with Tebow in the backfield I feel Greene has a chance to have a breakout season. Marshawn Lynch ADP 16.6 had 8 games with 20 carries or more in 2011. He is the Seahawks workhorse! Barring any suspension by the league he should be set to be top 10 back.