No April Fooling: Baseball's First Month Determines Who Makes the Playoffs
Manager Stephen Vogt Can Expect April Flowers To Bring Champagne Showers in October
Few would have predicted that the Guardians would own the best record in the American League, given the fact that manager Terry Francona is no longer there and the club has few veterans. Even though the season is only month deep, at the top is where Cleveland finds itself.
Of course fans in other cities are going to still give the Guardians huge odds that the team will not be there in September, citing the cliché about baseball being a marathon instead of a sprint. Most likely those critics will point back to just last April, when the team with the best record was the Pittsburgh Pirates.
In fact, Pittsburgh won more games last April than any team this year, finishing the month at 20-9. Cleveland fans might want to close their eyes before reading the next fact, since Pittsburgh ended up 76-86 and second to last in the division.
However, Pittsburgh's decline was actually an anomaly, for all of the other first place teams in April were on top at the end of the regular season as well. Atlanta won the East, and Los Angeles ran away with the West.
Even the three teams, Arizona, Philadelphia and Miami, to earn the N. L. Wild Card spots all finished April over .500. The importance of April is clearly evident in the Senior Circuit and, as Cleveland fans will enjoy recalling, it is even more striking in the American League.
At the end of April of 2023 the Twins were atop the Central while the Rays led the East, and both went on to win their divisions. The other two division did end up with a different first place club after the first month and September, that April champion did go on reach the postseason.
Actually it went well beyond that, the Texas Rangers winning the pennant and then the World Series. Even though they were beaten out by the Astros for the division crown, few were surprised because Houston itself had enjoyed a winning April.
Every team in the A. L. that had finished April more than one game over .500, Toronto and Baltimore in addition to the ones discussed above, made the postseason last year. Plus, all teams more than a game over .500 but the Mets and aforementioned Pirates, qualified for the postseason in the N. L.
Looking back at just one year is hardly definitive proof of the importance of April, but it is difficult to compare the prior seasons. The last time baseball had a complete April following a full spring schedule was 2019, the three seasons between having been abbreviated either by the work stoppage or the pandemic.
Even 2019 is not a great comparison, the leagues still having a one-game playoff to determine the Wild Card team. Nevertheless, April success still almost guaranteed a postseason appearance, as a look at the standings reveals.
Five of the six first place clubs at the end of April 2019 ended up in the postseason, the lone exception being the Philadelphia victimized by the historic second half to the eventual World Series champion Washington Nationals.
Barring a similar miraculous comeback, which have been very rare in baseball's rich history, you can pretty much name the teams who will be playing in October. All you have to do is look at the standings on May first.
