“It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI’s Achuthan Says New Recession

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   Stacie Lposted 13 years ago

   “It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI’s Achuthan Says New Recession Unavoidable
   Weakness in leading economic indicators has become so pervasive the Economic Cycle Research Institute now predicts a new recession is unavoidable.
   "The vicious cycle is starting where lower sales, lower production, lower employment and lower income [leads] back to lower sales," co-founder Lakshman Achuthan declares in the accompanying video.
   http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ti … 29160.html
   watch the video on the link.It's depressing to think that we haven't had the worse.To tell us that another recession is coming seems to be unrealistic because i haven't seem a recovery yet!

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   Cagsilposted 13 years ago

   There was no recovery. It was an illusion brought on by Wall Street and money injections into the wrong sectors of private industry. Meaning, that government spent money that did nothing except make the wealthiest re-coup some of their losses, while trillions were lost in the in retirements, IRA, 401Ks and other things like real-estate values.
   
   What I find the most irritating is that the cost of food and energy and living is going up higher? Landlords are still raising rents as if there's nothing wrong with the economy. Pricing on food continues to rise and sooner or later gas prices are going to push for higher ends.
   
   It's utterly ridiculous. The people(citizens) are so gullible. And, I blame every politician, not just one side or another. They are all at fault. They refuse to do what is in the best interests of society and now everyone is going to pay for their blatant stupidity.

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      Mighty Momposted 13 years agoin reply to this

      What do you mean "going to pay" Cags?
      We've already been paying for years.
      This recession is not something just on the horizon.
      We're up to our necks and have been (us common folk, that is) since
      2008.
      

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         Cagsilposted 13 years agoin reply to this

         Meant by the increases in all pricing structures across the economy.
         This is common knowledge, but goes back further than you realize and not just back to 2008.
         What recession? From the looks of things already, there's no recession. We're in a full blown depression.....increased poverty, increased prices, increased homeless, increased taxes(which are spent badly and/or poorly managed) and decreased education funding.
         Longer than that, as I said.

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   Emile Rposted 13 years ago

   One of the problems with the economy is the whole thing was built on a model similar to a pyramid scheme. Think about it.
   
   The government actively worked to push us into the lifestye of a two income family. To drive the economy. More money coming in means more purchases.
   
   When that model reached its peak, it injected credit cards into the mix. More money. To drive the economy. Yes, we were in debt as a nation, but at first; it wasn't a big deal. You had a credit card or two from department stores. Only the rich had something like American express.
   
   When that model reached its zenith, they added credit cards for all. Then, not only were we able to spend above our means to buy appliances and clothes; all of a sudden we could eat out, go on vacation; whatever we wanted outside of our means was ours for the taking.
   
   Throw the real estate boom on top of that. By design. Your home value kept climbing and climbing. Why? Because that was the next way to drive the economy. Easy credit and low equity requirements had everyone using their homes like a bank. Run the cards up, refinance and take that money to pay off debt so you could get in debt again.
   
   The cycle had to end somewhere. We are all teetering closer to the edge of bankruptcy than we feel comfortable admitting. There is not yet another idea to create the illusion of wealth in order to drive the economy.
   
   It wasn't sustainable forever.

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      Cagsilposted 13 years agoin reply to this

      Really? And, how did you reach this conclusion?
      
      That statement is so far out in left field on some other planet.
      
      It wasn't built on a pyramid scheme. It was however built on a barter/trade. You buy something from someone, either goods/products or services and you give them something of equal or greater value in trade.

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         Emile Rposted 13 years agoin reply to this

         Read the rest of my post. Do some research on the history of the economy and the evolution of the model of the american family and I'll meet you over in left field so we can talk.

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            Cagsilposted 13 years agoin reply to this

            The rest of your post is irrelevant to the original statement I responded to, because your original statement was false to begin with.

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               Emile Rposted 13 years agoin reply to this

               Interesting. Out of curiosity, what is it the government tells you to do; to help the problem? If I remember correctly, when Bush had the government send everyone six hundred dollars he asked us to spend it. To drive the economy.
               
               The economy is fueled by consumer purchases. The more we buy, the more the store needs to restock. The more the store orders, the more that needs to be manufactured. The more that needs to be manufactured, the more the jobs.  And on and on and on.
               
               You have to look at the shift that was caused by the government post WWII. Look at the nuclear family, compared to the previous model. Then follow the  shift, year by year. It's as plain as the nose on your face.
               
               You are probably like me. Too young to have lived through most of it, but ask your parents exactly what things were like. The model of the home mortgage. Credit availability. What was in the average middle class home.
               
               We've reached one more hurdle for the model to surpass. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. But I can tell you, if we jump it; the end result will be more personal debt for the next generation. Because that is exactly what has happened for every other generation before them.
               
               And there is a reason. As outlined in my original post.

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                  Cagsilposted 13 years agoin reply to this

                  That doesn't make the Economy a pyramid scheme.
                  
                  The Economy is a bunch of businesses that are not built based on pyramid schemes. They offer a product/good or services, based on supply and demand. People trade money for either products/goods or services.
                  
                  The reason government gave people money was to boost the Economy because not enough people were spending money. They were saving, which also means that they were not putting the money in the bank, otherwise banks would have been able to extend businesses additional credit to operate, during the down time.
                  
                  This is what I meant by your original statement was false. The Economy is solely based on exchange/trade which is driven by supply and demand for such products/goods and/or services.

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                     Emile Rposted 13 years agoin reply to this

                     Cagsil. You are right about what you are talking about, but that is not the problem. The problem is debt. From top to bottom. The American worker has been bankrupted by a policy set in place shortly after the end of WWII by our government to enrich the corporations. It was a step by step process implemented gradually on purpose. To drive the economy.
                     
                     Now we, as the people, bought into it. We are partly to blame, but that isn't the point anymore. The point is that it has to stop. We can't continue the upward spiral into debt. We are running out of ways to up our personal resources in order to drive the economy.
                     
                     This thing is tanking. We have to look it squarely in the eye, for what it is, and find a way to fix it. I'm sorry to say, but rampant capitalism has beggared this country. I love the idea of the system; but multinational corporations have bled us dry through manipulating our government into manipulating us so they can help to drive us deeper and deeper into debt. For the purpose of making robber baron profits.
                     
                     The system is broke. It will never be fixed without some serious changes that, I'm afraid, we'll have to force at some point. If the government doesn't decide to work in the best interest of the people to force it, this country is headed for some rocky times that the republic may not survive.

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         earnestshubposted 13 years agoin reply to this

         The way I see it, if a country's citizens have the right to vote, it is the people who are to blame. Someone voted for them.

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            Hollie Thomasposted 13 years agoin reply to this

            I agree in principle, but, despite our best and sometimes educated judgement, we have no idea how they'll behave once they're elected.

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               earnestshubposted 13 years agoin reply to this

               I dunno Hollie, When someone is nominated who is an obvious basket case, they seem to get elected by other basket cases!

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                  Hollie Thomasposted 13 years agoin reply to this

                  Yeah, ok, when they're obvious basket cases. I was actually thinking about Tony Blair, I'm afraid I voted for him in 97. Just saw the party color rather than the man. Never again.

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                     earnestshubposted 13 years agoin reply to this

                     I was thinking of the USA, sorry Hollie, maybe not very awake yet.
                     
                     Blair is a great example to give, I thought he was credible initially and he was charming.
                     I misjudged him, he turned into an American puppet like John Howard did in Australia.
                     
                     Howard didn't fool me though.... an obvious right wing dipstick, he had already locked refugees and their children behind razor wire.... not a good look and outside International law.

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                        Hollie Thomasposted 13 years agoin reply to this

                        You see, you were sharper than I. At the time, I didn't see past the spin. And now, I'm so sceptical of both left and right. At the end of the day they're polititians, they didn't get where they are because of their integrity.

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                           earnestshubposted 13 years agoin reply to this

                           I fear you are right. I ran for the Senate in 1984 in Australia, and ran in to two blocks of lobbyists who had basically tied up the whole voting outcome.
                           I didn't agree with either of them! My competition felt it was OK to lie to both of them, explaining afterwards that the ends justified the means.
                           
                           I lost of course.

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                              Hollie Thomasposted 13 years agoin reply to this

                              Of course, but you still have your integrity and you're no-ones puppet. That counts for a lot. You're probably, as a citizen, able to achieve far more than you would ever have done in office. Think of it that way. Useless puppets, ineffectual.

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                                 earnestshubposted 13 years agoin reply to this

                                 Thanks, I have been an observer for many years now, but like to keep in touch with it still. I do write letters and try to contribute to radio debates etc.
                                 
                                 We have only a few really good politicians, but they do exist contrary to common belief.
                                 
                                 The good ones have much more knowledge and talent than I will ever have.
                                 It is one hell of a job being a Minister, I know a few that have worked 7 days a week for years to get outcomes that work.
                                 
                                 In Australia at least, one needs a very thick skin, as we are brutal as voters, and treat our politicians as the compulsive liars we know many of them are.

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                                    Hollie Thomasposted 13 years agoin reply to this

                                    Yes, but the good ones rarely make it to the forefront of politics. But. I live in hope.

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                                       earnestshubposted 13 years agoin reply to this

                                       True that, and we do indeed live in hope.

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   Stacie Lposted 13 years ago

   the middle class and working poor(little people) were given the privilege of buying over priced real state and getting loans on property that for many,is upside down,further exasperating the problem.
   now the only thing that we middle class thought was going to be our nest egg(house)value is dropping  faster than a meteor.

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   recommend1posted 13 years ago

   Most western economies are totally in debt, how do you think the individuals in those economies can possibly avoid being in the same position.  All the people are being jerked around by those who manipulate the money system.  This is about power and keeping wealth - and the 5% who have it are playing the systems for all they can milk, and they are able to play both in and out of hteir own countries.  We are in the position now of electing people to run our countries whose money, and so loyalties, are in another country altogether.

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   knolyourselfposted 13 years ago

   My theory is when the Euro is a thing of the past if that happens, the dollar economy will be revived.

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      RookerySpoonerposted 13 years agoin reply to this

      The Euro was a big mistake for those nations signing up.  However, the UK, which decided against joining the Euro still has to pay extra billions to Brussels because of the mess it has gotten itself into.  I always used to be for the EU, but think Britain would be wise to come out of it, before it drags the rest of the world down.  Not that our MPs will have the courage to do this though.  Trying to operate as if Europe were one big economy makes little sense, because there is a huge difference between each member state.  The seperate states need to go their own ways, with their own governments running their own economies.  The federal government was a good idea, but has not worked out, and the EU can never be a United States of Europe.

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   Jon Peterzposted 13 years ago

   This guy and his ECRI WLI index have a very good track record.  I watched the interview too.  Yep, scary....it could get worse, hard to beleive things could get worse.    I will sell some holdings Monday and ask questions later.
   
     Another indicator to watch is the ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Services index.  When they dip below 50, this means things are slowing down.  If those indexes dip below 43, then it's recession time.
   
   
   BTW, The ISM Manuf. data comes out 10am Monday.  That could be a huge mover for the markets.  I sure hope the WLI is wrong this time.  But......I doubt it.

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