I know, I know, I know....
After 10 years of watching sales revenues and traffic numbers, I've found a correlation between June 30th traffic and ultimately Christmas sales. This applies to product selling websites only. (I make most of my money in the travel sector and that's a different sales cycle.)
Some of you might know that I come from a marketing and mathematical modeling background and I've designed some models that help me evaluate how I'm doing.
What I've learned is that if my June 30th Google Traffic for a website exceeds the Google Traffic on my busiest Christmas shopping day of the preceding year, then I will have a good Christmas season. And how much of a good season depends how large the increase is.
For example a 1% increase in Google Traffic indicates perhaps a 3% increase in Christmas sales, but a 2% increase in Google Traffic indicates maybe an 8% increase in Christmas sales. (Those aren't the exact numbers, that I experience.)
The years when I haven't seen this happen, have been dismal. I'm watching my hubs to see if they behave the same way as my own websites. I don't have enough experience here to know what kind of relationship exists.
And with all models, something else could be at work as well.
I think that this relationship maps my website improvements, product selection, and backlinking strategies better than anything else and lets me know if I've chosen the right niches and how well I'm reading the consumer. It also lets me know how well I'm doing against niche competitors.
This indicator does not track necessarily with Leading Economic Indicators, GDP growth or anything going on in the macro economy. I've had some bad years personally, when the economy was going gangbusters.
Since last Christmas was my first real attempt at a Hubpages Christmas I can't really match up any statistics yet.
However since most of my articles are based on luxury items I did see a much higher increase over christmas, up to four fold traffic increase, and over a dozen times increase in sales.
I am hoping this holds true for my current traffic/earnings because it will give me a very merry Christmas.
Sorry Nelle, but this has gone right over my head - I'm more of a kind of write and then hope type! Too many numbers confuse me!
Wow, I thought I was the only person who spent so much time on their hub stats.
But seriously, doing statistical analysis on hubs is the best way of making big money here (and anywhere else!).
Most of my hubs are in different niches, so I can't really comment on B2C shopping hubs.
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