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Earthquake Weather Report for December 2014
Time to Fasten Our Seismic Seatbelts?
Actually in this report I will be presenting a review of the past month and a half and look forward into the next month and a half..
For this article, I have modified the graph I use to demonstrate earthquakes activity each month in three tiers (along with the raw monthly sunspot activity). It used to show the breakdowns with the lowest beginning at 5.8 or 5.9 magnitude. I now start at 6.4, and each of the three groups are then compared to an average of 3 per month. The average for 6.4 to 6.7 earthquakes is 3 and 1 each for 6.8 to 7.0 and 7.1 or larger earthquakes (but these last two tiers are each multiplied by 3 so that the average line applies to each of the three). In changing to this type of display, it can easily be seen whether earthquake activity was below, above, or just average in each of the tiers for any given month. For example, in October 2013, seismic activity was above normal in all three magnitude groups. However, in April 2014, although the largest quakes were well above average, the lower tiers demonstrate just average activity. For October 2014, significant earthquakes (6.8 magnitude or greater) were average, while the tier of 6.4 to 6.7 below that was one third of the statistical average (all averages based on the past 10 years).
But, according to the duration and amplitude of the Astro-aspect Value signal, starting on November 22, and ending on December 11, seismic activity is likely to pick up speed, seeing a doubling of earthquakes (or more). What is expected are at least 3 earthquakes occurring with a minimum magnitude of 6.8 during those 20 days rather than the 1 or 2 earthquakes that would normally be expected during this time frame.
As I said earlier, October 2014 was an average month for significant earthquakes. Of the two such earthquakes that occurred then, the first occurred as the second of the three prominent peaks for the month just crossed into a seismic window or slightly above the average Astro-aspect Value line. At the same time as these values were applying or building in strength, sunspot activity was falling. Converseley, the second such event occurred just before exiting the third prominent peak window or when these values were crossing into below average territory. Sunspot activity at that point was on the rise. Interestingly though, at the time of each of these earthquakes, the Astro-aspect values for both events were similar. Curiously, the sunspot values at the time of each of these earthquakes were similar as well.
In my last hub it was stated that the last four significant earthquakes had fallen inside my seismic windows defined by Astro-aspect Values. That became five in a row with the 7.1 magnitude earthquake which occurred about 150 kms northeast of the Fiji Islands on November 1st.
Unrelated to my seismic windows, since the magnitudes are under 6.8 or below what I consider to be significant events, a 6.6 magnitude event occurred in the Papua New Guinea area. This was home to many earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or larger in April during 2013 and 2014. The first of this activity in 2013 spurred me to write a hub warning of this being a likely sign of a much bigger event in the near future. It will be interesting to see if activity picks up again in this geographic location and if it may spark an earthquake in the size range of approximately 8.0 in magnitude down the road. My earlier article can be found at this link: http://retrojoe.hubpages.com/hub/Trouble-Brewing-In-the-Southern-Ring-of-Fire
Also unrelated but curious is a swarm of earthquakes that has occurred in the northern central portion of Oklahoma during recent weeks which culminated in a 4.8 magnitude earthquake on November 12th. Another recent swarm of earthquakes has been occurring in the northwestern corner of Nevada (near the borders of California and Oregon which recently produced an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 on November the 13th (GMT). Although these earthquakes are not considered significant enough to be a part of my study, it is interesting to note that they both are very close to a peak of Astro-aspect Values that hovers around the average line for those values. Something bigger than these last two earthquakes, say in the size range of the recent 6.1 magnitude earthquake near Napa, California three months earlier, may be coming to these areas of the United States in the not too distant future.
It is now time to list the worldwide seismic windows as defined by Astro-aspect Values for significant earthquakes of magnitude 6.8 or larger for the last half of November and all of December, 2014 (the total hours for the windows equals 432 or 18 days which makes up 58% of the month):
2014-11-18, 0600 UTC to 2014-11-19, 1200 UTC (1.25 days): southeast of Florida.
2014-11-21, 1800 UTC to end of month (9.25 days): China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, N.Calif./S. Oregon, southeast of Florida, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, south Pacific, north of New Zealand, and/or Chile or Peru.
2014-12-01, 0000 UTC to 2014-12-12, 0000 UTC (11 days): southeast of Florida, Japan, China/Taiwan, Aleutians, N.CA or S.OR, N. or E. of Australia.
2014-12-17, 1400 UTC to 2014-12-20, 0000 UTC (2.42 days): southeast of Florida, N. or E. of Australia.
2014-12-21, 2000 UTC to 2014-12-23, 1000 UTC (1.58 days): southeast of Florida.
2014-12-24, 1800 UTC to 2014-12-25, 0600 UTC (0.5 days): southeast of Florida or N. to N.E. Of Australia.
2014-12-25, 1800 UTC to 2014-12-26, 1800 UTC (1 day): ditto
2014-12-28, 1800 UTC to 2014-12-29, 0600 UTC (0.5 days): ditto
2014-12-30, 0600 UTC to 2014-12-31, 0600 UTC (1 day): ditto
© 2014 Joseph Ritrovato