Ben's 2019 Oscar Preditctions
2018 has come and gone and here in the early part of 2019 we get to celebrate the finest in film, acting and writing of the year. That is as long as your film, acting or writing does not involve horror, comedy or a truthful adaptation of the rise of the bottomless pit of hits known as Queen.
Below is a list of what/who I believe will take home the hardware this Sunday and some that I believe should win but probably won't. Some categories I will have a lot to say about and some I will have nothing to say about. I look forward to arguing with all of you.
Writing(Original Screenplay)
The Nominees Are...
The Favourite by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed by Paul Schrader
Green Book by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma by Alfonso Cuarón
Vice by Adam McKay
Being that this is my favorite category, I take it pretty seriously. This is a fantastic year for original screenplays as any of these movies have a chance at winning, even First Reformed which I have not gotten to see but have heard great things about. The Favourite is a brilliant blend of dark comedy and strong tension. Green Book is a beautiful double character study that shows us that our differences should not separate us but make us better humans. Roma is a perfect example that sometimes getting the viewer to read between the lines can me more impactful than flashy dialogue and Vice makes light of one of the most secretive and vital points in modern American history, and McKay has already earned an Oscar in the Adapted Screenplay category.While Green Book is a really beautifully written movie, the Oscar goes to...
The Favourite
Writing(Adapted Screenplay)
The Nominees Are...
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by Joel and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me? by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk written for the screen by Barry Jenkins
A Star is Born by Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters
To me this is an open and shut case and it is not for lack of quality of competition. There are some fantastic screenplays here but only one was adapted by the same writer....s. The Oscar goes to...
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Visual Effects
The Nominees Are...
Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
Christopher Robin – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
First Man – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J. D. Schwalm
Ready Player One – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk
Solo: A Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy
Another category with a lot of really strong candidates. With the exception of Christopher Robin (because no one wants to watch a 27 year old man cry for no reason at all in a theater full of children) I have seen each of these films and would not be surprised if any of these won, but we are here to make predictions and so the Oscar goes to...
Ready Player One
Film Editing
The Nominees Are...
BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman
The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito
Vice – Hank Corwin
Editing is one of the most difficult things to recall about a movie months after you have seen it. It is also one of the most important parts of what makes a movie really great and having seen all of the nominees I would say one sticks out to me more than the others. The Oscar goes to...
The Favourite
Costume Design
The Nominees Are...
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres
Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite – Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne
This is one of those categories that I will not have a whole ton to say about. Te Oscar goes to...
The Favourite
Production Design
The Nominees Are...
Black Panther – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Jay Hart
The Favourite – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
First Man – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
Mary Poppins Returns – Production Design: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
Roma – Production Design: Eugenio Caballero; Set Decoration: Bárbara Enríquez
This is one of the most difficult to predict categories this year. Only omitting Mary Poppins Returns because I have not seen it, I really think any of these production designers could win. It is a testament to not only how great production design has gotten but how varied it can be. As for a prediction I think this is a fantastic opportunity to give a fan favorite some love. The Oscar goes to...
Black Panther
Animated Feature Film
The Nominees Are...
Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle
Isle of Dogs – Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson
Mirai – Mamoru Hosoda and Yūichirō Saitō
Ralph Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller
Of the 5 movies nominated for Best Animated Feature I have seen 3 and you could make an argument that each of them could be nominated for Best Picture. Isle of Dogs was my early in the year best movie of the year and while it has nout dulled, it's release date did not do it any awards season favors. Incredibles won a grip of awards and it's sequel lived up to it's predecessor. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse was possibly the most fun and refreshing film of 2018 and has a great chance to win. The Oscar goes to...
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Cinematography
The Nominees Are...
Cold War – Łukasz Żal
The Favourite – Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel
Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique
A good rule of thumb if you want to snag an Oscar is putting your movie in black and white. The Oscar goes to...
Roma
Supporting Actor
The Nominees Are...
Mahershala Ali – Green Book as Don Shirley
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman as Philip "Flip" Zimmerman
Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born as Bobby Maine
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Jack Hock
Sam Rockwell – Vice as George W. Bush
With the exception of Mr. Grant's performance I have seen all of the nominees in this category and while all of them were great, there is one hiding here that should be in the Best Actor category. The Oscar Goes to...
Mahershala Ali
Supporting Actress
The Nominees Are...
Amy Adams – Vice as Lynne Cheney
Marina de Tavira – Roma as Sofía
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk as Sharon Rivers
Emma Stone – The Favourite as Abigail Masham, Baroness Masham
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite as Sarah Churchill, Duchess of Marlborough
Maybe the strongest category out of the bunch. Any, and I really mean any of these actresses could win. with the competition being so close I will use my judgement and say the Oscar goes to...
Rachel Weisz
Best Actor
The Nominees Are...
Christian Bale – Vice as Dick Cheney
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born as Jackson "Jack" Maine
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity's Gate as Vincent van Gogh
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody as Freddie Mercury
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book as Frank "Tony Lip" Vallelonga
Malik and Bale seem like pretty heavy favorites in this category but I am always a fan of an actor doing something completely out of their normal range and absolutely killing it. Mortensen did that better than anyone this year or really in recent memory. He would be my pick but the odds on favorite will probably win this one. Te Oscar goes to...
Christian Bale
Best Actress
The Nominees Are...
Yalitza Aparicio – Roma as Cleodegaria "Cleo" Gutiérrez
Glenn Close – The Wife as Joan Castleman
Olivia Colman – The Favourite as Anne, Queen of Great Britain
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born as Ally Maine
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Lee Israel
For Yalitza Aparicio to win would be a great accomplishment as the first Latin American woman to win best actress. While I believe she gave the finest performance in the category, there is another actress who has a career of work which will most likely be recognized. The Oscar goes to...
Glenn Close
Best Director
The Nominees Are...
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Paweł Pawlikowski – Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Adam McKay – Vice
Cuarón, who has already won in this category a few years ago for Gravity feels like a pretty solid favorite. Lanthimos is one of the most exceptional filmmakers out there and it is nice to see him get this sort of recognition, even if he does not win. The Oscar goes to...
Alfonso Cuarón
Best Picture
The Nominees Are...
Black Panther – Kevin Feige
BlacKkKlansman – Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee
Bohemian Rhapsody – Graham King
The Favourite – Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos
Green Book – Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga
Roma – Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born – Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor
Vice – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin J. Messick
And now for the moment you have all been waiting for. I am going to be honest, this year really does not have any stand out nominees in the Best Picture category. All are great movies but none jump off the page and declare themselves the early winner. The Favourite, Green Book and Roma to me are above the rest of the competition and really any of those three will leave me satasfied. The Oscar goes to...
Roma
