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Ben's 2019 Oscar Preditctions

Updated on February 24, 2019

2018 has come and gone and here in the early part of 2019 we get to celebrate the finest in film, acting and writing of the year. That is as long as your film, acting or writing does not involve horror, comedy or a truthful adaptation of the rise of the bottomless pit of hits known as Queen.

Below is a list of what/who I believe will take home the hardware this Sunday and some that I believe should win but probably won't. Some categories I will have a lot to say about and some I will have nothing to say about. I look forward to arguing with all of you.

Writing(Original Screenplay)

The Nominees Are...

The Favourite by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

First Reformed by Paul Schrader

Green Book by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly

Roma by Alfonso Cuarón

Vice by Adam McKay

Being that this is my favorite category, I take it pretty seriously. This is a fantastic year for original screenplays as any of these movies have a chance at winning, even First Reformed which I have not gotten to see but have heard great things about. The Favourite is a brilliant blend of dark comedy and strong tension. Green Book is a beautiful double character study that shows us that our differences should not separate us but make us better humans. Roma is a perfect example that sometimes getting the viewer to read between the lines can me more impactful than flashy dialogue and Vice makes light of one of the most secretive and vital points in modern American history, and McKay has already earned an Oscar in the Adapted Screenplay category.While Green Book is a really beautifully written movie, the Oscar goes to...

The Favourite

Writing(Adapted Screenplay)

The Nominees Are...

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by Joel and Ethan Coen

BlacKkKlansman by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee

Can You Ever Forgive Me? by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

If Beale Street Could Talk written for the screen by Barry Jenkins

A Star is Born by Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

To me this is an open and shut case and it is not for lack of quality of competition. There are some fantastic screenplays here but only one was adapted by the same writer....s. The Oscar goes to...

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Visual Effects

The Nominees Are...


Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick

Christopher Robin – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould

First Man – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J. D. Schwalm

Ready Player One – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk

Solo: A Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy

Another category with a lot of really strong candidates. With the exception of Christopher Robin (because no one wants to watch a 27 year old man cry for no reason at all in a theater full of children) I have seen each of these films and would not be surprised if any of these won, but we are here to make predictions and so the Oscar goes to...

Ready Player One

Film Editing

The Nominees Are...

BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown

Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman

The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito

Vice – Hank Corwin

Editing is one of the most difficult things to recall about a movie months after you have seen it. It is also one of the most important parts of what makes a movie really great and having seen all of the nominees I would say one sticks out to me more than the others. The Oscar goes to...

The Favourite

Costume Design

The Nominees Are...

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres

Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter

The Favourite – Sandy Powell

Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell

Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne

This is one of those categories that I will not have a whole ton to say about. Te Oscar goes to...

The Favourite


Production Design

The Nominees Are...

Black Panther – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Jay Hart

The Favourite – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton

First Man – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

Mary Poppins Returns – Production Design: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim

Roma – Production Design: Eugenio Caballero; Set Decoration: Bárbara Enríquez

This is one of the most difficult to predict categories this year. Only omitting Mary Poppins Returns because I have not seen it, I really think any of these production designers could win. It is a testament to not only how great production design has gotten but how varied it can be. As for a prediction I think this is a fantastic opportunity to give a fan favorite some love. The Oscar goes to...

Black Panther

Animated Feature Film

The Nominees Are...

Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle

Isle of Dogs – Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson

Mirai – Mamoru Hosoda and Yūichirō Saitō

Ralph Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller

Of the 5 movies nominated for Best Animated Feature I have seen 3 and you could make an argument that each of them could be nominated for Best Picture. Isle of Dogs was my early in the year best movie of the year and while it has nout dulled, it's release date did not do it any awards season favors. Incredibles won a grip of awards and it's sequel lived up to it's predecessor. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse was possibly the most fun and refreshing film of 2018 and has a great chance to win. The Oscar goes to...

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Cinematography

The Nominees Are...

Cold War – Łukasz Żal

The Favourite – Robbie Ryan

Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel

Roma – Alfonso Cuarón

A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique

A good rule of thumb if you want to snag an Oscar is putting your movie in black and white. The Oscar goes to...

Roma

Supporting Actor

The Nominees Are...

Mahershala AliGreen Book as Don Shirley

Adam DriverBlacKkKlansman as Philip "Flip" Zimmerman

Sam ElliottA Star Is Born as Bobby Maine

Richard E. GrantCan You Ever Forgive Me? as Jack Hock

Sam RockwellVice as George W. Bush

With the exception of Mr. Grant's performance I have seen all of the nominees in this category and while all of them were great, there is one hiding here that should be in the Best Actor category. The Oscar Goes to...

Mahershala Ali

Supporting Actress

The Nominees Are...

Amy AdamsVice as Lynne Cheney

Marina de TaviraRoma as Sofía

Regina KingIf Beale Street Could Talk as Sharon Rivers

Emma StoneThe Favourite as Abigail Masham, Baroness Masham

Rachel WeiszThe Favourite as Sarah Churchill, Duchess of Marlborough

Maybe the strongest category out of the bunch. Any, and I really mean any of these actresses could win. with the competition being so close I will use my judgement and say the Oscar goes to...

Rachel Weisz

Best Actor

The Nominees Are...

Christian BaleVice as Dick Cheney

Bradley CooperA Star Is Born as Jackson "Jack" Maine

Willem DafoeAt Eternity's Gate as Vincent van Gogh

Rami MalekBohemian Rhapsody as Freddie Mercury

Viggo MortensenGreen Book as Frank "Tony Lip" Vallelonga

Malik and Bale seem like pretty heavy favorites in this category but I am always a fan of an actor doing something completely out of their normal range and absolutely killing it. Mortensen did that better than anyone this year or really in recent memory. He would be my pick but the odds on favorite will probably win this one. Te Oscar goes to...

Christian Bale

Best Actress

The Nominees Are...

Yalitza AparicioRoma as Cleodegaria "Cleo" Gutiérrez

Glenn CloseThe Wife as Joan Castleman

Olivia ColmanThe Favourite as Anne, Queen of Great Britain

Lady GagaA Star Is Born as Ally Maine

Melissa McCarthyCan You Ever Forgive Me? as Lee Israel

For Yalitza Aparicio to win would be a great accomplishment as the first Latin American woman to win best actress. While I believe she gave the finest performance in the category, there is another actress who has a career of work which will most likely be recognized. The Oscar goes to...

Glenn Close

Best Director

The Nominees Are...

Spike LeeBlacKkKlansman

Paweł PawlikowskiCold War

Yorgos LanthimosThe Favourite

Alfonso CuarónRoma

Adam McKayVice

Cuarón, who has already won in this category a few years ago for Gravity feels like a pretty solid favorite. Lanthimos is one of the most exceptional filmmakers out there and it is nice to see him get this sort of recognition, even if he does not win. The Oscar goes to...

Alfonso Cuarón

Best Picture

The Nominees Are...

Black Panther – Kevin Feige

BlacKkKlansman – Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee

Bohemian Rhapsody – Graham King

The Favourite – Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos

Green Book – Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga

Roma – Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón

A Star Is Born – Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor

Vice – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin J. Messick

And now for the moment you have all been waiting for. I am going to be honest, this year really does not have any stand out nominees in the Best Picture category. All are great movies but none jump off the page and declare themselves the early winner. The Favourite, Green Book and Roma to me are above the rest of the competition and really any of those three will leave me satasfied. The Oscar goes to...

Roma

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