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X Factor 2009 (Season 6) Betting Odds Update with 10 Remaining
Danyl Johnson Now Favorite to Win
About 2 weeks ago, I went against the prevailing odds and stated that Danyl Johnson was the actual favorite to win the 2009 season of X Factor. At that time, the prevailing betting odds were on Lucie Jones. As I explained in that analysis, any seasoned watcher knows that Lucie does not have the talent level to win X Factor short of straight popularity voting.
So not surprisingly, Danyl Johnson has taken the lead in odds to win. However, an interesting thing to note is that, while Stacey Solomon and Jamie Archer have pretty much held their positions, Joe McElderry has leapfrogged into second position in odds to win. Meanwhile, Lucie Jones, whom smart bettors would have never bet on, slipped to fourth.
The emergence of Joe McElderry as one of the favorites seems to be based on Simon's overpraise of his performances. I don't understand Simon's praise of Joe simply because he hits all the notes. This is rarely a deciding factor in real life or on these reality tv competitions. Everything Joe does sounds the same. His vibrato is too strong, so he doesn't even sound like the typical pop singer. That is more reminiscent of some Broadway-type singers, so it is odd to hear Simon Cowell claim that he has the stuff of a pop star.
That's not to say Joe is not good. But his vibrato is an acquired taste, and he is the type of singer that will hardly ever win a contest with diverse singing types. To compare Joe with some American Idol contestants, we can look to Elliott Yamin and, to some extent, Clay Aiken. However, Clay has a more refined style, and even he didn't win. Elliott, who finished third in the fifth season of Idol, is most similar to Joe. They completely lack versatility, and supposed technical proficiency garners less votes than versatility. Joe has apparently learned a set way of singing and goes right back to it on every performance. He won't win unless he changes it up. Just bank on that. Too many people will get fed up with his overused act.
So who will likely win now? Well, my personal favorite is still Jamie. He is more versatile and proved it this last time (during "diva" week) by singing, of all things, a Christina Aguilera song ("Hurt"). His range was great, his high notes soared beautifully, and he even showed some Aguilera-like riffing technique. And this is from a credible rock guy, not some female diva. But do I think he will win? I have my doubts about that because rockers just don't usually win these shows. No matter how hard Jamie tries and actually proves his versatility, the voting public will still consider him a rocker, and alot of people just don't vote for rockers.
Stacey also has some chance of winning. However, what we are seeing in the competition is exactly what I addressed before in my article on Stacey Solomon odds. She is getting old fast and has even shown her ignorance of music this past week. Stacey didn't even know the song "At Last." How about actually watching a few YouTube videos, Stacey? Beyonce and Christina have sung "At Last," and multiple contestants have sung it in singing contests. So it's no excuse that it's an old song. And even this song was yet another slow song. Finally, the judges are starting to lean towards being a bit more honest about her. Simon went ahead and told the truth that the song didn't fit her.
As such, I still think that Danyl Johnson is the actual favorite to win. I was not as thrilled as a lot of people with Danyl's "And I'm Telling You I'm Not Going" last week. That performance was not as good as quite a few other contestants I have heard. But he followed it up with a fantastic Whitney Houston performance this past week. In addition, he has already tailored his style and is avoiding the oversinging that was putting him in potential hot water during the audition phase of the competition.
In America, the fact that he was outed (by himself) as bisexual might hurt him, but I would think the UK people would be far less likely to hold such a thing against a contestant. I am American, and even I know that Europe in general is more advanced on a social level in areas such as this. So I think Danyl is still the man to beat.