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GOP Delegate Math Problem is the Solution
Historically, Super Tuesday is celebrated as the event which solidifies the political party candidate. When this is not the case, it typically spells trouble toward party unity in the general election. The Republican Party is unified in its rhetoric in making President Obama a one term President. When it comes down to putting those words into practice, none of the candidates are willing to walk that walk.
In fact, their actions speak volumes supporting quite the opposite. Ron Paul aside, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich need over 60% of the remaining delegates available to achieve the required number to be nominated on the first ballot at the convention in Tampa. They both claim they will not step aside, as they represent the non moderate anti- Romney constituency.
Mitt Romney needs about 47% of the remaining delegates to lock up the party’s nomination. On the surface, in a four candidate race, the odds are overwhelming dubious at best, yet attainable. One only needs to project the upcoming state contests to conclude the likelihood of Mr. Romney receiving one of every two delegates becomes an increasingly improbable scenario.
March 10 Delegates/Event
Kansas 40 Caucus Caucus Information from Kansas GOP
U.S. Virgin Islands 9 Caucus Caucus Information from VI GOP
Guam 9 Caucus Caucus Information from KUAM News
No.Mariana Islands 9 Caucus Caucus Information from Saipan Tribune
March 13, 2012
Alabama 50 Primary Primary Information from Alabama SOS
Hawaii 20 Caucus Caucus Information from Hawaii GOP
Mississippi 40 Primary Primary Information from Mississippi SOS
Amer.Samoa 9 Caucus Caucus Information from The Green Papers
March 17, 2012
Missouri 52 Caucus Caucus Information from Missouri GOP
-The February 7th "beauty contest" primary will not count for delegates toward the 2012 GOP convention. The Missouri Republican Party will hold a caucus on March 17th which will determine the delegates sent to the 2012 GOP convention – See report from CNN
March 18, 2012
Puerto Rico 23 Primary
March 20, 2012
Illinois 69 Primary
March 24, 2012
Louisiana 46 Primary
Factors to consider going forward…
The South was not kind to Mitt Romney last go around in the 2008 Primary: Here is the breakdown of the upcoming Southern States which will play a major role in determining the fate of the GOP.
Alabama (47), Mississippi (37), Louisiana (25), Arkansas (33), and Texas (155) or 297 delegates.
Winner-take-all state contests yet to occur:
California(169), Delaware(17), District of Columbia(16), Maryland(34), New Jersey(50), Puerto Rico(20), Utah(37),and Wisconsin(39) or 382 delegates.
Although Romney has won the ‘Winner takes all’ states of Arizona and Florida, The RNC may contest the results based on Rule 15 and 16; due to a proportional penalty to be imposed nullifying a portion of those delegates thereby awarding them to his contenders.
Despite the recent claims of Mr. Romney, a Brokered Convention may very well be exactly ‘what’s in the cards.’
The Republican Party may very well place their bet toward beating the incumbent President on the latecomer ‘Knight in Shining Armor’ in November.
The GOP Delegate Math problem may very well be the solution.