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Governor Races 2020

Updated on December 20, 2019

Steve Bullock (Montana): The Only Term-Limited Governor

Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America [CC BY-SA 2.0 (]
Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America [CC BY-SA 2.0 (]

Overview of Eleven Races for Governor in 2020 - Updated December 20, 2019

There are 11 states where there will be an election for Governor in 2020. The incumbent is Republican in seven contests; Democratic in four. The following chart presents the projections for each race. As the reader will note, the incumbent is favored to win in every state except Montana (MT), where the race leans Republican.

There are currently four inputs to determine the projections: Politico rating, Cook rating, Inside Elections' rating and Sabato's Crystal Ball rating. Each input is equally weighted, and a projection is made for each race. Additional inputs, including polling data, will be added when available. Currently, there is no polling data published for Governor's races for 2020.

In eight states, each input agrees as to whether the Democrat or Republican will win. There is disagreement in only three states:

  • Montana: Politico favors the Republican whereas the other three ratings call the race a toss-up.
  • North Carolina (NC): Politico calls the race a toss-up whereas the other ratings favors the Democrat.
  • Vermont (VT): Politico calls the race a toss-up whereas the other three ratings favor the Republican.

The four most competitive races are Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire (NH) and Vermont. In two of these states, the incumbent is a Democrat (MT and NC) and in two states the incumbent is Republican (NH and VT). The reader can scroll down and see the projections for seat changes. There is a 45% chance that the Republicans pick up one or two seats, a 37% chance that the number of seats remains the same, and only a 18% chance that the Democrats pick up one or more seats. Based on this analysis of Governor's seats, the Republicans appear to be in the "drivers seat."

If you are interested in reading about the race to select the Democratic candidate for President, please read this article.

Projections for 2020 Governor Races: Updated December 14, 2019

R pick-up
North Carolina
D hold
New Hampshire
R hold
R hold
R hold
West Virginia
R hold
R hold
D hold
D hold
North Dakota
R hold
R hold

D = Democrat; R = Republican

Number of Governor Seats Likely to Change - Updated December 14, 2019

Seat Change
D & R
R +1
R + 2

D = Democratic R= Republican


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