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November 2019 Debate

Updated on December 15, 2019

Who Needs a Strong Performance?

By US Department of Labor - L-16-04-06-A-208, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=51160608
By US Department of Labor - L-16-04-06-A-208, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=51160608

November 2019 Debate - Updated November 23, 2019

Now that we know Castro will not make the stage, as he did not receive any qualifying polls, that leaves us with ten candidates for the November 20 debate, down two from the October debate, as we will be without both Castro and O'Rourke.

Gabbard qualified by virtue of the Quinnipiac Iowa poll (11-5). It may well be the last time we some of these candidates at a debate as the criteria for the December debate raise the minimum threshold another point. Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris (due to national NBC/WSJ 10-30 poll) and Klobuchar (due to Quinnipiac Iowa 11-5 poll) appear to have qualified for the December debate. This means that Yang, Booker, Gabbard and Steyer, from those qualified for November are not yet eligible for December. Gabbard apparently has received one qualifying poll from an early state at 6% (Quinnipiac NH 11-10 poll). A December debate page will be added after the November 20 debate.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has announced the candidate placement on stage. This is a direct reflection of how the DNC has the candidates seeded. In the middle are Biden (1) and to his left Warren (2). To the right of Biden we will see Sanders (3). To the left of Warren is Buttigieg (4) and to the right of Sanders is Harris (5). Klobuchar (6) is positioned to the left of Butttigieg and Yang (7) is placed to the right of Harris. Gabbard (8) will be seen left of Klobuchar. Booker and Steyer are positioned in the last two positions far left and far right. It is interesting that the apparent top six in terms of DNC seeds are all qualified for the December debate. If nothing changes between now and then, and the DNC does not change how they are placing candidates on stage, we could expect therefore to see left to right Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Sanders and Harris. This author's data analysis combines polling and non-polling data. My projections are close to the DNC seeds. The most obvious exception is where Yang should be placed.

The reader may wish to take a look at the national analysis, the early primary-caucuses, Super-Tuesday, June debate, July debate, September debate, October debate and the December debate.

November Debate Analysis - Updated December 15, 2019

Candidate
Pre-Debate Rank
Post-Debate Rank
Pre-Debate Polling Momentum
Post-Debate Polling Momentum
Biden
1
1
+2.0%
+1.0%
Warren
2
3
-4.0%
+2.0%
Sanders
3
2
+2.0%
+3.0%
Buttigieg
4
4
+2.0%
0.0%
Yang
5
5
-1.0%
-1.0%
Harris
6
WD
+1.0%
WD
Klobuchar
7
6
0.0%
+1.0%
Gabbard (NQ)
8
7
-1.0%
0.0%
Booker (NQ)
9
8
0.0%
0.0%
Steyer
10
9
0.0%
-1.0%
NQ = Did not qualify for December debate. WD - withdrew from race for nomination. Data updated on December 15, 2019.

November Post-Debate Analysis - Updated December 15, 2019

Biden remains on top but Warren has been replaced at #2 by Sanders. On December 3, Harris withdrew from the race. She had ranked 6th at the time and the other candidates move up one position.

Gabbard and Booker did not qualify for the December debate. Steyer qualified by reaching the donor requirement. Yang achieved the 4th and final qualifying poll. Gabbard was short by one qualifying poll. Booker met the donor threshold but had zero qualifying polls. Deadline to meet entrance criteria for the December 19 debate was December 12. It should be noted that no other candidate including Castro had either a qualifying poll or had met the donor requirement.

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