What is Brexit?
History of Brexit
As a Pre election pledge by David Cameron to ensure a conservative party general election victory against UKIP. A public referendum vote was held Thursday 23 June, 2016.
What will Brexit be like?
Pink and fluffy with pretty pictures everywhere. But we may miss these 'pretty pictures' if our heads are stuck in the sand.
What could Brexit be like?
Brexit should be what the majority of the UK voted for.
The lack of defining statements to the wording of the leaving statement (See Ballot paper below) castes substantial doubt as to what extent the 51.9% of the UK's population desires to leave the EU ( European Union.)
What was the UK Population trying to vote for?
Understanding how EU and UK relationships influenced public perceptions will indicate to us what voters were trying to vote for.
What is the EU?
European Union (EU) is a union of 28 member countries.
The UK accesses a “Single market” of standardised laws applying in all EU member states. Ensuring free movement of people, goods & services and capital applying to member states.
The EU enacts justice and home affairs legislation. Maintains common trade, agriculture, fisheries, and regional development policies.
The EU and UK ; both seek to promote greater social, political and economic harmony among European Nations. Economic inter dependency of Nations helps prevents armed conflicts.
If UK and EU policies align; why is the UK leaving the EU?
Only 51.9% actually voted to leave the EU.
But hey, whats 1.9% between friends?
What are UK and EU differences?
The UK choose not to be a member of;
1) Euro currency.
2) Schengen zone.
What EU policies effects UK voters Socially.
Lets try;
'Free movement of people, goods & services and capital within all members.
Trade benefits many, free movement of people has caused benefits and social impacts and changes.
Why?
Not all member states are the same, lacking national resources to deal with large influxes of refugees.
The UK has a high population density which is highest in the South and midlands of the UK. Social tensions about Immigration featured in the Referendum discussions.
But.. Why?
Migration can be a social impact on our lives, both subtle and exaggerated
Benefits and social impacts of migration are often uneven.
UK Employment and immigration ; Social injustice and economic consequences
UK residents in lower skilled jobs do feel threatened by being 'undercut' by the availability of larger migrant pool. Some migrants present more diverse lower skill sets with less Socioeconomic expectations, this makes them exploitable. Commerce competes by using the cheapest exploitable resources. While costs may fall, wage stagnation also prevents upward income mobility.
A decade ago I asked a builder who sold me a homeless mag in London why he could't find work, he stated he was concerned for his own safety on the work sites because his migrant colleagues did not understand English enough for him to work safely on a building site.
This confirmed to me that migrant exploitation for minimum wage requirements was occurring without regard to proper social integration. ( eg English Language understanding.)
Another Social aspect is that immigration drives up house prices, great news for some property owners.
But as more and more houses were subdivided into cheap lets without regard to increasing the supporting social and utility infrastructures. This increased social tension for all previous residents regardless of culture.
Migration aspect Conclusion
A failure of consecutive UK governments and Social structures to understand and manage migration impacts for previous residents. This national failure alone could account for the exaggerated negative perception of migration and the rise of UKIP.
WAIT A MINUTE: Isn't UK immigration only partially down to EU membership?
Skilled labour
Worse still, strip mining essential skilled workers from poorer nations outside the EU to run the UK's essential services may become essential. Skilled EU workers are now less inclined to work in a non EU member.
Don't Believe everything you read.
You be Judge of this ! Check out the migration facts below. Then ask yourself how is leaving the EU going to solve the UK's Migrant Socioeconomic issues?
UK Immigration / Emigration Table
Global Regions
| Immigration
| Emigration
| ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Units = thousands
| Year Ending Dec 2017
| 95% CI
| Change since YE Dec 2016
| YE Dec 2017
| 95% CI
| Change since YE Dec 2016
| ||||
Total
| 630
| 39
| +41
| 349
| 26
| +9
| ||||
British
| 80
| 16
| +6
| 126
| 13
| -8
| ||||
EU
| 240
| 27
| -9
| 139
| 20
| +23
| ||||
(of which) EU15
| 118
| 18
| -14
| 71
| 15
| +12
| ||||
(of which) EU8
| 52
| 12
| +4
| 46
| 11
| +3
| ||||
(of which) EU2
| 60
| 14
| -7
| 19
| 7
| +6
| ||||
Non-EU
| 311
| 23
| +46*
| 84
| 10
| -6
| ||||
(of which) Asia
| 198
| 17
| +35*
| 47
| 7
| -4
| ||||
(of which) Rest of World
| 96
| 14
| +11
| 30
| 7
| -6
|
What else could have swayed 1.9% of UK voters to leave the UK?
Err... a little money, Perhaps?
Net EU contributions
In 2015 the UK paid the EU an estimated £13 billion of our hard earned cash. But certain regions and sectors of the UK Economy received a lot of this money back as rebates. Albeit to the EU's rules.
How much does the UK actually pay to the EU?
Year
| 2004
| 2005
| 2006
| 2007
| 2008
| 2009
| 2010
| 2011
| 2012
| 2013
| 2014
|
Millions £
| -2243
| -2984
| -3566
| -4123
| -2666
| -3759
| -7225
| -7543
| -8536
| -11271
| -9872
|
The EU contributions of the UK and Trading figures
Incorrect claims about EU contributions by the UK used in the referendum?
- Brexit: Vote Leave wipes NHS £350m claim and rest of its website after EU referendum | The Independe
The official Leave campaign has wiped almost its entire website from the internet. The site – which previously included the suggestion that the EU budget would be sent back to the NHS and included promises about trade deals – now just has a message t
Were the minds of the Leave voters affected by EU Payments?
Without being 'fully' aware of the EU rebates Key sectors receive in the UK?
What else influenced leave voters?
Political: The UK would be free from political domination from the Evil death star at the heart of the European Union headed by Darth Juncker
In the UK data suggest that from 1997 to 2009 6.8% of primary legislation (Statutes) and
14.1% of secondary legislation (Statutory Instruments) had a role in implementing EU
obligations, although the degree of involvement varied from passing reference to explicit
implementation. Estimates of the proportion of national laws based on EU laws in other
EU Member States vary widely, ranging from around 6% to 84%.
— How much legislation comes from Europe? House of commons Research Paper 10/62 13 October 2010Does 6.8% of primary legislation ( Principle Written Laws) look like an EU takeover of London?
Perhaps Darth had other concerns than conquering the UK. Trade laws are mutually agreed by consensus. Eg; EU legislation protects the health and welfare of children from dangerous products. Useful current UK/EU Legislation provides many safeguards.
Brexit Conclusion.
Based on facts, 51.9% of the UK could not have voted for a clean break with the EU.
More likely they were seeking relief from Socioeconomic burdens. Migration brings change and essential progress to modern Global economy. To much migration incorrectly managed; encourages exploration, criminality and a lower standard of living with wage stagnation for residents regardless of culture.
More autonomy for the EU member to pursue Social justice within the EU framework could have prevented local or regional frustration of UK voters facing a national 'do or die' choice. Other consequences are dealing with the rise of more extreme nationalist Politicians in EU member states.
Unfortunately the EU does not have a track record in understanding and granting autonomy to EU citizens but favours federalism and more integration. The UK seeks more regional adaptability to Global changes.
If the crash of 2008 is a warning about careless integration. Then the Brexit outcome may be chandler gilding on the Titanic before the EU ploughs into more Globalisation Icebergs.