Will England Finally Deliver Independence?

Politics is moving almost too fast to keep up but it is becoming clear that Scotland will eventually be an independent country. The only question is when.

Any independence supporter who says independence is not in the bag and that a second referendum may not result in a YES vote gets shouted down by the YES supporters wishing to deny reality.

But no army ever won a battle, let alone a campaign by saying that the enemy had no chance and were defeated even before battle commenced or armies started moving.

Unfortunately we in the YES movement must look at the obstacles in our way and try to find ways round them. Or suffer another 2014 and Culloden style defeat.

Neither unionists nor independence supporters want another independence referendum right now: if either side were sure they would win they would push for a referendum tomorrow.

The independence movement had a shock in 2014 when, having tried to fight an optimistic campaign promoting the benefits of independence, they lost to a campaign based on lies and all the nasty things that would happen in the event of a YES vote. Almost all those nasty things have happened after the NO vote.

The Unionist parties had a shock when they nearly lost, having expected a resounding victory.

Online book makers, who, regardless of their personal feeling about independence, want to get their predictions right, are predicting a NO vote in another referendum (8/11 to stay) and evens for a YES vote.

Opinion polls still show a majority against independence, even allowing for a three point margin of error.

So no independence referendum any time soon. Both sides are playing chicken, hoping the other side will go first and destroy itself.

But there are other ways to gain independence.

Ever since the EU referendum there was a chance that Brexit would lead unexpectedly to Independence.

Today there seems to be a growing feeling among brexiteers that if they had to choose between Brexit and the United Kingdom they would chose Brexit, as well as an increase in the number of Facebook keyboard warriors calling for Scotland to be ejected from the United Kingdom.

Unfortunately there seems to be no way to goad these couch potato gammons into actively campaigning for England to dissolve the Union.

UKIP hold the seemingly inconsistent position of being anti independence and pro Brexit. If they could be persuaded of electoral advantage from campaigning for the breakup of the UK and used this they might scare the Tories into remembering that the word “Unionist” in “Conservative And Unionist Party” refers to the union with Northern Ireland and changing their name in order to be able to ditch Northern Ireland. All it would need is for the DUP to defeat the government on a major issue, though such a defeat would require Labour to change the habits of a lifetime and vote against the Tories.

One way to gain independence without a referendum would be the formation of an English Independence Party prepared to stand in all constituencies and for this party to appear to threaten the Tory grip on power. This is unlikely as most of the blowhards who want Scotland ejected from the UK are “all mouth and trousers”.

The Independence movement must show it is bigger than the SNP – who will be necessary to bring about independence, and do all it can to fuel the desire for English Independence, stressing the need for an English Independence Party.

Brexit and Independence are inextricably linked at present. Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU but seems deadlocked over independence.

If Brexit is cancelled or turns out to be in name only it seems likely support for independence will not change. However the political logic that would lead to such a conclusion would probably require a formal Tory-Labour coalition of pro Europe MPs. This could lead to a single unionist candidate in each constituency against a pro independence candidate in the next Scottish election.

If, as seems increasingly likely, there is a no-deal Brexit, and there is then a second Independence referendum, which would only happen if there was a big and sustained increase in support for independence, many, but not all, YES-LEAVE voters will still vote YES. YES-REMAIN voters will vote yes in the hope of Scotland rejoining the EU. Some NO-REMAIN voters will swing to independence for the same reason but the NO-LEAVE voters will remain NO voters being quite happy with the way things have turned out.

This analysis suggests a no-deal Brexit may not deliver the needed swing in support for independence.

It is galling to say it but it looks like the only way in which Scotland can, at this time, get independence is to provoke the English to pressurise their MPs into thrusting it on Scotland.

England has traditionally been contemptuous of the Scots, starting with James I who seems to have been reluctant to visit Scotland after 1603. Dr Johnson said that the finest sight a Scotsman ever saw was the road to London. He also said that Oats were a food in England given to horses and in Scotland given to the people. John Wilkes, a nominal radical dedicated to freedom, made remarks about the Scots that were so offensive he was burned in effigy in Edinburgh, the officers of the law standing by either because they were afraid of the mob or because they agreed with the burning.

England has, since 1707, been scared of Scottish influence in the United Kingdom.

The Independence movement can surely weaponise this contempt and fear, telling those who might form an English Independence Party that the money “given to subsidise Scotland” is holding England back that Scotland is the sole obstacle to Brexit and that by ejecting Scotland they will stop the Scottish tail wagging the English bulldog

This, along with a negative “Project Fear” highlighting the dangers of remaining in the United Kingdom, may help reduce the time to Independence.

It seems very unlikely Scotland will be independent before 2023. It seems most likely that the United Kingdom will unravel in the reverse order of its formation: first Northern Ireland (1801), second Scotland (1707) and third Wales (1536). Cornwall may never seek independence.

But at the moment the idea of a referendum is useful only to scare Unionists into making mistakes and prematurely ejaculating their lies.

All we can do is keep goading the gammons till they push to get us thrown out.