Why is everyone fighting over the complex variable of global warming, with post-

1. 65

   Uvaposted 14 years ago

   Why is everyone fighting over the complex variable of global warming, with post-oil-age impending ?

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2. 62

   Evan G Rogersposted 14 years ago

   the... post-oil-age..?
   
   I don't know which world you're living on, but oil companies are making more than ever. I agree that there WILL be a 'post oil age' but we do NOT know what will replace oil. It could just as easily be coal, or nuclear, or solar - all things that risk increasing the earth's temp, or producing very dangerous pollution (yes, solar raises the temperature of the earth. the panels are black, and that's a surefire way to raise temps. Check out Superfreakonomics).
   
   Many people who say that "oil will run out by the year 2050", or whatever the date is, really have no understanding of economics in any way shape or form. The first thing that anyone learning economics will encounter is the epic and relentless discussion of Supply and Demand. If you take the known amount of oil reserves and divide it by today's consumption, you get a retarded answer because this equation does not take into account lowering supply. The real fact is that oil will be around for millennia, and we'll just have to pay a lot of money for its use. This rise in price will force people to shift their source of energy to other things. But this is still a ways off
   
   Many people discuss how 'oh god the world is doomed to global warming what with china on the rise and whatnot!'... these people also fail to apply economics to the debate. If anything, China's rise to oil-consuming super power can do nothing but raise prices of oil, and thus make the incentives to stop using oil much higher. If anything, China's huge demand for oil will create a shift away from oil.
   
   (now some might argue about a oil-cartel or other such nonsense - listen, cartels and monopolies aren't able to be created unless you get government involved. It's just a fact.)
   
   Anyway, just some food for thought!

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3. 65

   Uvaposted 14 years ago

   I think you are drinking the cool-aide Mr. Rogers.
   
   I'm glad someone finally answered this question, your response proved exactly why I'm writing out my angst about the IMPENDING global change. Please google sour oil, peak oil and look at oil production and use in the global economy, especially compare how oil production changes global trade. I'm not making up the chemical dumping off of Africa because oil is becoming harder to process. I'm not imagining countries renewed interest in shale oil. Nobody wanted the stuff 10 years ago.
   
   I also think you have some confusion with how solar panels work, and the different types of solar energy collected, like solar water heaters esp. in other countries other then the US, and the new US panels are not only not black but they are shiny and they are not solid (air is one of the best insulators), and panels absorb the sun's energy more than they reflect it back. Dull black concrete, and roofing absorbs and radiates heat energy very true, in contrast solar panels are more like windows as relates to absorbing and radiating heat, i.e. they reflect more light than radiate heat.
   
   If I'm reading you correctly, I think we actually agree about the China bit. Also, on a ironic note, they are required to have solar water heaters in China. BUT the combination of production and more people in China and India driving cars, using packaged goods. etc... will have a giant impact on the last few years of oil production. And there might even be some line where it might get cheaper for us to make stuff than it is to import it.
   
   I don't know what you are talking about at all as it relates to oil cartels ? There are big corporations who have more power than many world governments, just look at the top 50 profit margins. Then compare those numbers to the size of any country's budget.
   
   I think I need to write a hub about this question. I just wanted to hear if anyone else was asking it. My motivation and reason why we need to evolve past oil, isn't just the law of diminishing returns. At our current rate of consumption 25 and even 50 years is nothing to joke about when you are talking about such a big global change. My motivation is about health issues, how pollution and plastic adversely effect all life on the planet. Not just the CO2 but the garbage, and poisoning us slowly, increasing cancer rates, birth defects, mutations etc. as it parallels crude oil related pollution of our lives.

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