Let’s face it, it’s the Electoral College that counts. A deep dive.

Jump to Last Post 1-5 of 5 discussions (14 posts)
  1. tsmog profile image85
    tsmogposted 4 months ago

    From Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (28-30 December 2023) by Redfield & Wilton Strategies (Jan 8, 2024) shows Trump winning in all six swing states surveyed. Those six states are:

    Arizona – Trump = 41%; Biden = 35% (Margin of error = 3.45%)
    Florida – Trump = 45%; Biden = 34% (ME = 2.89%)
    Georgia – Trump = 42%; Biden = 34% (ME = 3.17%)
    Michigan – Trump = 39%; Biden = 37% (ME = 3.40%)
    North Carolina – Trump = 37%; Biden = 33% (ME = 2.81%)
    Pennsylvania – Trump = 40%; Biden = 39% (ME = 3.00%)

    Of course, views on which state is a swing state will differ.

    If curious who in the hell Redfield & Wilton Strategies is their about page is at this link. As an aside Newsweek is associated with them.

    Newsweek collaborates with Redfield & Wilton Strategies for the US 2024 Elections
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com … trategies/

    A deep dive is at the article with graphics focusing on key issues. The top three are in order of priority; Economy by a large margin, abortion, and then healthcare.

    Note: When viewing the graphic for the key issues be aware it rotates between states. Look closely! The same thing occurs with the graphic for Biden’s job performance. It rotates between issues while shows them for each state. The data is available with a link at the bottom of the article. It leads to the actual data in an Excel worksheet. Interesting if you like data.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com … mber-2023/


    Do you agree it is the Electoral College that counts?

    Do you agree those are the key swing states? Some or all? If not which should be looked at?

    Do the results surprise you?

    If you examined and assessed the key issues which do you think are in flux with the most weight for the voter’s decision? In other words, the economy could be a concern of the whole populace whereas abortion is a left issue.


    1. Credence2 profile image79
      Credence2posted 4 months agoin reply to this

      It is reality that staunchly blue states and red states balance each other out, with swing states ultimately dermining the outcome.

      I have a bad feeling about the Electoral College, but accept it as a given. Democrats will have to work harder to see that Republicans don't add their tally to their numbers.

      1. tsmog profile image85
        tsmogposted 4 months agoin reply to this

        Yes, I paid attention to the discussions between yourself and GA on the electoral college to garner your sentiments. I waver on the topic at this time. From appearances the popular vote determines how the electors will vote. However, discovering the phrase, "Faithless elector" I see there is a need to further my knowledge. That may stop me from wavering.

        1. GA Anderson profile image88
          GA Andersonposted 4 months agoin reply to this

          It looks like one "Faithless Electors" worry was (is now being) tested. It also looks like it passed the test.

          For a bit of humor, almost half of recorded 'fake electors', to date, became so because their electee died before the EC convened to vote.

          The issue is also becoming less of a worry as more states legislate their electors' pledges.

          On a partisan note, historically it looks like more Democrat electors have gone faithless more than Republican ones.


          1. tsmog profile image85
            tsmogposted 4 months agoin reply to this

            giggle + giggle smile Of course you know I had to satisfy my curiosity with the partisan statement, "historically it looks like more Democrat electors have gone faithless more than Republican ones" seeing, yes, that is true. The only caveat I toss in the ring is since 1900 it is even at five each.

            I don't see it as threat, really. But, I do take heed with 'fake' electors with Trump debacle  As an aside, I support the electoral college at this time, though pay attention to discussions and info on eliminating it. In other words, an open mind.

            Opps! I forgot to post the link for info on faithless electors I discovered if curious.

            Faithless Electors by FairVote.org
            http://archive3.fairvote.org/reforms/na … -electors/

        2. Credence2 profile image79
          Credence2posted 4 months agoin reply to this

          I don't see anything short of a Constituional Convention to get rid of the Electoral College. I grudgingly must respect the compromise made at the beginning to justify its existence today. I am willing to give smaller states and regions a say as long the popular vote, almost always the determinant of the winner, is not sacrificed to the Electoral College which as of late has been far too often for my comfort.

          I told GA years ago that "faithless electors" are not to be tolerated as contrary and not anyway representative to the popular vote.

  2. Kathleen Cochran profile image76
    Kathleen Cochranposted 4 months ago

    If your state legislature has not signed on to the National Popular Vote, contact your legislators while they are in session (most are between January and April). Only a few more states are needed for NPV to make the electoral college impotent.

    Two of the last five presidents have not been elected by the majority of voters. NPV will ensure that never happens again.

    1. Credence2 profile image79
      Credence2posted 4 months agoin reply to this

      Thanks, here in Florida that is an uphill climb.

    2. tsmog profile image85
      tsmogposted 4 months agoin reply to this

      Thanks, Kathleen, for turning me onto National Popular Vote, I will explore it in the near future.

      Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote from their website.

    3. Readmikenow profile image94
      Readmikenowposted 4 months agoin reply to this

      I went to the website of NPV and these people are confused.

      To do away with the Electoral College would require an amendment to the Constitution.

      An amendment may be proposed either by the Congress with a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate or by a constitutional convention called for by two-thirds of the State legislatures.

      A proposed amendment becomes part of the Constitution as soon as it is ratified by three-fourths of the States (38 of 50 States).

      I don't think 38 states will sign off on eliminating the Electoral College.

      1. Willowarbor profile image59
        Willowarborposted 3 months agoin reply to this

        Well we are back to that pesky Constitution and states rights..

        The compact would modify the way participating states implement Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the Constitution, which requires each state legislature to define a method to appoint its electors to vote in the Electoral College. The Constitution does not mandate any particular legislative scheme for selecting electors, and instead vests state legislatures with the exclusive power to choose how to allocate their states' electors (although systems that violate the 14th Amendment, which mandates equal protection of the law and prohibits racial discrimination, are prohibited. 

        States participating in the compact would simply choose to award their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote.

  3. tsmog profile image85
    tsmogposted 4 months ago


    From a recent article by The Hill is an assessment of the study/survey conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies posted with the OP. They assessed with a comparison to a previous study/survey conducted by them. The study/survey posted with the OP was the third edition. The Hill stated;

    "The poll found that the margins between Trump and Biden grew closer in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but that the former president still maintains an edge in all six states surveyed. Neither candidate received more than 50 percent of support in any state, signaling that the swing states remain divided on who they will likely support in the general election."

    More can be found at the link next:

    Trump’s leads over Biden in key swing states narrow: Survey by The Hill (Jan 8, 2024)
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 … ow-survey/

    Additionally, a recent Gallup poll finds for the general populace Trump and Biden are neck and neck in % of Favorable. Trump = 42% whereas Biden = 41%. The poll is a deep dive with interesting results. For instance for the Candidates they have Kennedy with the highest favorable percent. The link next leads to the poll. Worth a peek as I see it.

    Biden and Trump Evenly Matched in U.S. Favorable Ratings by the Gallup Organization (Jan 9, 2024)
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/548138/ame … tings.aspx

  4. tsmog profile image85
    tsmogposted 4 months ago

    Battle Ground States! You choose, do your own assessment, and follow along in the future. Have some fun or get serious. A choice!

    Forbes says the Battle Ground States are:
    (Some may disagree while may give more weight to one over another)

    North Carolina

    At the link next is a tool provided by The Hill; Decision Desk HQ. It constantly updates with new polls to get the pulse on your choice what to assess through drop down menus. (At this time there are 7,821 polls and last updated Jan 12) You can also do your own predictions for the electoral college and see the electoral college result.

    There is a bonus too. You can do it by state.

    Decision Desk HQ

  5. tsmog profile image85
    tsmogposted 3 months ago

    At The Hill's Election Desk/Decisions Desk HQ shows 15 national polls for Trump vs. Biden from Jan 1 - Jan 18. The score is:

    Trump - 9

    Biden - 2

    Tie - 4

    The latest poll was Jan 18 by Redfield & Wilton indicating Trump by 1% point.

    Overall for all polls (528) Trump has 1% lead.

    Biden vs. Trump by The Hill's Decision Desk HQ. One can look at polls by state if desired with the drop down menu.

    https://elections2024.thehill.com/natio … mp_general


This website uses cookies

As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, hubpages.com uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: https://corp.maven.io/privacy-policy

Show Details
HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the googleapis.com or gstatic.com domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)
ClickscoThis is a data management platform studying reader behavior (Privacy Policy)