Let’s face it, it’s the Electoral College that counts. A deep dive.

1. 85

   tsmogposted 12 months ago

   From Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (28-30 December 2023) by Redfield & Wilton Strategies (Jan 8, 2024) shows Trump winning in all six swing states surveyed. Those six states are:
   
   Arizona – Trump = 41%; Biden = 35% (Margin of error = 3.45%)
   Florida – Trump = 45%; Biden = 34% (ME = 2.89%)
   Georgia – Trump = 42%; Biden = 34% (ME = 3.17%)
   Michigan – Trump = 39%; Biden = 37% (ME = 3.40%)
   North Carolina – Trump = 37%; Biden = 33% (ME = 2.81%)
   Pennsylvania – Trump = 40%; Biden = 39% (ME = 3.00%)
   
   Of course, views on which state is a swing state will differ.
   
   If curious who in the hell Redfield & Wilton Strategies is their about page is at this link. As an aside Newsweek is associated with them.
   https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/about-us/
   
   Newsweek collaborates with Redfield & Wilton Strategies for the US 2024 Elections
   https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com … trategies/
   
   A deep dive is at the article with graphics focusing on key issues. The top three are in order of priority; Economy by a large margin, abortion, and then healthcare.
   
   Note: When viewing the graphic for the key issues be aware it rotates between states. Look closely! The same thing occurs with the graphic for Biden’s job performance. It rotates between issues while shows them for each state. The data is available with a link at the bottom of the article. It leads to the actual data in an Excel worksheet. Interesting if you like data.
   
   https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com … mber-2023/
   
   Questions:
   
   Do you agree it is the Electoral College that counts?
   
   Do you agree those are the key swing states? Some or all? If not which should be looked at?
   
   Do the results surprise you?
   
   If you examined and assessed the key issues which do you think are in flux with the most weight for the voter’s decision? In other words, the economy could be a concern of the whole populace whereas abortion is a left issue.
   
   Thoughts?

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      Credence2posted 12 months agoin reply to this

      It is reality that staunchly blue states and red states balance each other out, with swing states ultimately dermining the outcome.
      
      I have a bad feeling about the Electoral College, but accept it as a given. Democrats will have to work harder to see that Republicans don't add their tally to their numbers.

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         tsmogposted 12 months agoin reply to this

         Yes, I paid attention to the discussions between yourself and GA on the electoral college to garner your sentiments. I waver on the topic at this time. From appearances the popular vote determines how the electors will vote. However, discovering the phrase, "Faithless elector" I see there is a need to further my knowledge. That may stop me from wavering.

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            GA Andersonposted 12 months agoin reply to this

            It looks like one "Faithless Electors" worry was (is now being) tested. It also looks like it passed the test.
            
            For a bit of humor, almost half of recorded 'fake electors', to date, became so because their electee died before the EC convened to vote.
            
            The issue is also becoming less of a worry as more states legislate their electors' pledges.
            
            On a partisan note, historically it looks like more Democrat electors have gone faithless more than Republican ones.
            
            GA

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               tsmogposted 12 months agoin reply to this

               giggle + giggle Of course you know I had to satisfy my curiosity with the partisan statement, "historically it looks like more Democrat electors have gone faithless more than Republican ones" seeing, yes, that is true. The only caveat I toss in the ring is since 1900 it is even at five each.
               
               I don't see it as threat, really. But, I do take heed with 'fake' electors with Trump debacle  As an aside, I support the electoral college at this time, though pay attention to discussions and info on eliminating it. In other words, an open mind.
               
               Opps! I forgot to post the link for info on faithless electors I discovered if curious.
               
               Faithless Electors by FairVote.org
               http://archive3.fairvote.org/reforms/na … -electors/

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            Credence2posted 12 months agoin reply to this

            I don't see anything short of a Constituional Convention to get rid of the Electoral College. I grudgingly must respect the compromise made at the beginning to justify its existence today. I am willing to give smaller states and regions a say as long the popular vote, almost always the determinant of the winner, is not sacrificed to the Electoral College which as of late has been far too often for my comfort.
            
            I told GA years ago that "faithless electors" are not to be tolerated as contrary and not anyway representative to the popular vote.

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   Kathleen Cochranposted 12 months ago

   If your state legislature has not signed on to the National Popular Vote, contact your legislators while they are in session (most are between January and April). Only a few more states are needed for NPV to make the electoral college impotent.
   
   Two of the last five presidents have not been elected by the majority of voters. NPV will ensure that never happens again.

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      Credence2posted 12 months agoin reply to this

      Thanks, here in Florida that is an uphill climb.

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      tsmogposted 12 months agoin reply to this

      Thanks, Kathleen, for turning me onto National Popular Vote, I will explore it in the near future.
      
      Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote from their website.
      https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation

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      Readmikenowposted 12 months agoin reply to this

      I went to the website of NPV and these people are confused.
      
      To do away with the Electoral College would require an amendment to the Constitution.
      
      An amendment may be proposed either by the Congress with a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate or by a constitutional convention called for by two-thirds of the State legislatures.
      
      A proposed amendment becomes part of the Constitution as soon as it is ratified by three-fourths of the States (38 of 50 States).
      
      I don't think 38 states will sign off on eliminating the Electoral College.

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         Willowarborposted 11 months agoin reply to this

         Well we are back to that pesky Constitution and states rights..
         
         The compact would modify the way participating states implement Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the Constitution, which requires each state legislature to define a method to appoint its electors to vote in the Electoral College. The Constitution does not mandate any particular legislative scheme for selecting electors, and instead vests state legislatures with the exclusive power to choose how to allocate their states' electors (although systems that violate the 14th Amendment, which mandates equal protection of the law and prohibits racial discrimination, are prohibited. 
         
         States participating in the compact would simply choose to award their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote.

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   tsmogposted 12 months ago

   Perspective
   
   From a recent article by The Hill is an assessment of the study/survey conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies posted with the OP. They assessed with a comparison to a previous study/survey conducted by them. The study/survey posted with the OP was the third edition. The Hill stated;
   
   "The poll found that the margins between Trump and Biden grew closer in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but that the former president still maintains an edge in all six states surveyed. Neither candidate received more than 50 percent of support in any state, signaling that the swing states remain divided on who they will likely support in the general election."
   
   More can be found at the link next:
   
   Trump’s leads over Biden in key swing states narrow: Survey by The Hill (Jan 8, 2024)
   https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 … ow-survey/
   
   Additionally, a recent Gallup poll finds for the general populace Trump and Biden are neck and neck in % of Favorable. Trump = 42% whereas Biden = 41%. The poll is a deep dive with interesting results. For instance for the Candidates they have Kennedy with the highest favorable percent. The link next leads to the poll. Worth a peek as I see it.
   
   Biden and Trump Evenly Matched in U.S. Favorable Ratings by the Gallup Organization (Jan 9, 2024)
   https://news.gallup.com/poll/548138/ame … tings.aspx

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   tsmogposted 12 months ago

   Battle Ground States! You choose, do your own assessment, and follow along in the future. Have some fun or get serious. A choice!
   
   Forbes says the Battle Ground States are:
   (Some may disagree while may give more weight to one over another)
   
   Arizona
   Georgia
   Michigan
   Nevada
   North Carolina
   Pennsylvania
   Wisconsin
   
   At the link next is a tool provided by The Hill; Decision Desk HQ. It constantly updates with new polls to get the pulse on your choice what to assess through drop down menus. (At this time there are 7,821 polls and last updated Jan 12) You can also do your own predictions for the electoral college and see the electoral college result.
   
   There is a bonus too. You can do it by state.
   
   Decision Desk HQ
   https://elections2024.thehill.com/national

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   tsmogposted 11 months ago

   At The Hill's Election Desk/Decisions Desk HQ shows 15 national polls for Trump vs. Biden from Jan 1 - Jan 18. The score is:
   
   Trump - 9
   
   Biden - 2
   
   Tie - 4
   
   The latest poll was Jan 18 by Redfield & Wilton indicating Trump by 1% point.
   
   Overall for all polls (528) Trump has 1% lead.
   
   Biden vs. Trump by The Hill's Decision Desk HQ. One can look at polls by state if desired with the drop down menu.
   
   https://elections2024.thehill.com/natio … mp_general

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