6+ million early votes have been cast Oct 16th

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   tsmogposted 3 months ago

   6,832,845 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally by NBC News (Last update Oct. 16, 11:45 PM ET) Landing Page is titled Decision 2024
   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
   
   Early voting has begun in states across the country where voters are able to cast their ballots either in person or via mail. Some states provide details about the early votes that are cast, including partisan divisions and age of voters, as well as voting method. Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has pushed for Democratic voters to utilize early voting more aggressively, seen as a tactic to help bank votes ahead of Election Day. While former President Donald Trump has been critical of early voting, his campaign and the Republican Party have also been pushing for voters to cast early ballots.
   
   See interactive map with four filters for analysis . . .
   
   ** Party Registration
   ** Age
   ** Gender
   ** Vote type
   
   Toggle switch at bottom of map for battle ground states only
   
   See header selections for . . .
   
   ** State
   ** Early voting
   ** President
   ** Senate
   ** House
   ** Road to 270
   ** Issue tracker (A deep dive with side by side comparison between Trump & Harris)
   ** Plan your vote
   
   At the bottom of the page click on individual state for results. Includes state senate race info and past results for 2020 & 2016.
   
   A suggestion: Bookmark it

   replyreport
2. 86

   tsmogposted 3 months ago

   Early voting & mail-in ballots has begun in a majority of states, (Oct 17, 2024). NBC Decision 2024 tracks ballots cast (Link following). Next, is a table showing registered voters for the battleground states that The Silver Bulletin tracks for their poll tracking, the cast ballot count, % of registered voters, and cast ballot party ID through Oct. 17, 2024, last update 12:03 AM ET.
   
   
   
   
   Sources:
   
   2024 Registered voters by state
   Source: World Population Review
   https://worldpopulationreview.com/state … s-by-state
   
   Mail-in and early in-person ballots cast
   Source: Decision 2024 / NBC News
   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
   
   [Last updated Oct. 17. Party registration is based on a combination of state-provided partisanship (when available) and TargetSmart’s model of party affiliation. Nationally, the total number of early votes is an aggregation of the daily state totals sourced from TargetSmart and state officials. Data provided by Target Smart.]
   
   Early voting date by state
   Source: Vote.org
   https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/

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3. 86

   tsmogposted 3 months ago

   NBC News / Decision 2024 / Early Vote Update Oct 20, 2024 11:46 pm ET
   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
   
   On Oct 16th 6.8+ million mail-in & early voting ballots were cast. As of Oct 20 11:46 pm ET it has grown to 13.7+ million a 201% increase. The states with a big jump by Getting Out the Vote (GOTV) are Georgia with 26.3% of registered voters casting their ballot followed by Virginia at 22.4% and then Michigan at 18.6%.
   
   Table for battleground/swing states Early & Mail-in ballot using NBC Early Voting data
   
   
   
   Poll: Half of voters plan to cast their ballots early — with a stark partisan divide by NBC News (Oct 15, 2024)
   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … rcna175253
   
   “Overall, 52% of voters said they're planning to cast their ballots early this year, with 44% planning to vote in person on Election Day. That's roughly in line with NBC News poll results from a similar point in the 2022 midterm elections, when 49% of voters said they planned to vote early and 47% planned to vote on Election Day.
   Meanwhile, 3% said they aren't sure which method they will use to vote and 1% said they won't vote.”
   
   
   
   **********
   “If you know where you are, you are not lost”
   
   The Silver Bulletin Poll Watch (Updated Oct 20, 2024 1:45 pm)
   
   Polling average
   Trump = 47.2%
   Harris = 48.9%
   
   “Last update: 1:45 p.m., Sunday, October 20. The data continues to be pretty negative for Kamala Harris. There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading — a difficult circumstance for Harris, given Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage — and her edge in our national polling average is down to 1.7 points. National polls don’t influence the model that much, and the race remains basically a toss-up, but it’s not hard to think of reasons that Trump could win.”
   
   FiveThirtyEight (538) Poll Watch (Updated Oct 20, 2024 1:49 pm)
   
   Polling average
   Trump = 46.4%
   Harris = 48.2%
   
   Electoral College Forecast
   Trump = 275
   Harris = 263
   
   Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (Oct 20, 2024 6:46 pm)
   538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
   Trump wins 53 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
   Harris wins 47 times out of 100.
   
   There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
   
   The Hill Decision Desk HQ Forecast Poll Watch (Updated Oct 20, 2024 5:43 pm ET)
   
   Polling average
   Trump = 47.7%
   Harris = 49.2%
   
   Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 52% chance of winning the Presidency.
   Electoral College Forecast
   Trump = 272
   Harris = 266
   
   Race to the WH by Logan Phillips (Oct 18, 2024 updated 2:55 pm)
   
   Polling average
   Trump = 46.7%
   Harris = 49.4%
   Electoral College Forecast
   Trump = 262
   Harris = 276
   
   NBC Decision 2024 Early Voting
   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
   
   The Silver Bulletin
   https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model
   
   FiveThirtyEight (538)
   https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 … -forecast/
   
   The Hill Decision Desk HQ – Forecast
   https://elections2024.thehill.com/forec … president/
   
   The Hill Decision Desk HQ – Polls
   https://elections2024.thehill.com/natio … p-general/
   
   Race to the WH
   https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024

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4. 86

   tsmogposted 3 months ago

   Predictions for the 2024 Presidential Election by Race to the WH by Logan Philips
   https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024
   
   Updated Oct 21, 2024 4:21 pm ET
   
   

   replyreport
5. 86

   tsmogposted 3 months ago

   Early Vote
   
   From NBC News Early Voting website . . .
   
   15,268,571 early vote or mail-in ballot cast nationally. That is 9.1% of registered voters.
   
   Democrat = 46%
   Republican = 36%
   Other = 18%
   
   Vote Early This Election Season: Find Your State's Key Early Voting Dates by CNET (Oct 21, 2024)
   Early voting got underway in seven more states on Monday (10/21), bringing the total number of states to more than 30.
   https://www.cnet.com/news/politics/vote … ing-dates/
   
   See maps for . . .
   
   Click to find early voting information in your state
   Where early voting has started
   
   
   Subheadings . . .
   
   What is early voting?
   
   What about all-mail voting?
   
   When does early voting start in my state?

   replyreport
6. 86

   tsmogposted 3 months ago

   Early Vote Last update Wed 10/23/2024 8:17 am ET
   
   Over 21.5 million early and mail-in ballots have been cast. That is 13% of registered voters. Of those, by party we have . . .
   
   Democrats = 45%
   Republicans = 38%
   Other = 17%
   
   13 Days of early voting remains while mail-in ballots arrive as well. Considerations are when mail-in ballots are counted. One example is Pennsylvania does not count mail-in ballots until 7 am on election day, but the votes are  not recorded or published until after the polls closed. See how mail-in ballots are counted by state at . . .
   
   Table 16: When Absentee/Mail Ballot Processing and Counting Can Begin by the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL)
   https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-camp … -can-begin

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7. 86

   tsmogposted 3 months ago

   Early Vote by NBC News shows over 16 million early or mail-in ballots have been cast (Updated 10/24 5am ET) That is 16% of registered voters a 3% increase over yesterday (10/23).
   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
   
   Ballots cast data
   
   Republicans = 39%
   Democrats = 43%
   Other = 18%
   
   53% are age 65+
   53% are women
   58% are mail-in while 42% are in person
   
   Americans Endorse Both Early Voting and Voter Verification by the Gallup Organization (Oct 24, 2024)
   Smaller majorities favor automatic voter registration and sending absentee ballot applications to all citizens
   https://news.gallup.com/poll/652523/ame … ation.aspx
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

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8. 74

   Kathleen Cochranposted 3 months ago

   In 2020,155 million votes were cast.-Pew Research

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      Ken Burgessposted 3 months agoin reply to this

      Not that I don't trust sources like NBC that are used here...
      But when it comes to bias, yeah, I don't trust them...
      
      Alternative sources that have been published in the last 48 hours or less:
      
      More Republicans are voting early, helping break records. Nearly 19 million ballots cast so far - AP
      https://apnews.com/article/early-vote-r … 2be5a58fac
      
      In Nevada, where Democrats for decades relied on a robust early vote to counter the GOP on Election Day, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had actually cast early ballots this year as of Tuesday, according to Associated Press research.
      
      Early vote totals indicate Trump is ‘going to be president on Election Day,’ veteran political journalist says
      https://nypost.com/2024/10/22/us-news/e … -halperin/
      
      “[M]ake no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like, we’ll know that Donald Trump’s going to be president on Election Day,”  Mark Halperin, editor-in-chief of the 2WAY video platform, said Tuesday.
      
      What we know, and what we don’t, about early voting numbers
      https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 … on-trends/
      
      There have already been some startling numbers, with the Georgia secretary of state noting first-day voting totals in the state were more than double the record. North Carolina also set a first-day record, though by a much narrower margin.
      
      In North Carolina, registered Republicans have cast almost as many votes as registered Democrats so far. According to the U.S. Election Project website — maintained by early voting expert and University of Florida professor Michael McDonald — roughly 34 percent of early ballots in the Tar Heel State have been cast by Republicans— almost double the 18 percent cast by GOP voters during the early voting period in 2020.
      
      Do I have all you Harris supporters worried yet?
      
      Don't be.
      
      I focused on the trend that matters most... the one that trumps all others...
      
      
      
      
      There is your election...
      
      58% percent of women voted for Biden in 2020...
      
      I believe that will hit 60% for Harris...
      
      More women vote than men...
      
      Another prediction in the bag.

      replyreport
9. 86

   tsmogposted 2 months ago

   NBC News Decision 2024 Early Vote (Update Oct 25, 2024 2am ET)
   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
   
   With the Monday Oct. 21 post for this OP thread the data through Oct. 20 11:46 pm ET was 13+ million ballots cast for early voting and mail-in ballots. Now, through Oct. 25 at 2am ET it has grown to 31+ million cast ballots. Nationally 18.8% of registered voters have cast their ballot. By party . . .
   
   Republican = 39%
   Democrat = 43%
   Other = 18%
   
   Add'l information . . .
   
   Women voters = 53%
   Mail-in ballot = 56%
   Age with most ballots cast is 65+ at 61% followed by 50-64 at 25% and then 40-49 at 10%.
   
   The top three states for Getting Out the Vote (GOTV) are Georgia with 45.3%, next North Carolina with 38.9% and then Virginia with 28.1%. The South East is on fire.
   
   Table of battleground/swing states using Nate Silver’s The Silver Bulletin as a guide for the states. Polling data is tracked for those states at his website.
   
   
   
   “If you know where you are, you are not lost”
   
   The Silver Bulletin Poll Watch (Updated Oct 24, 2024 11:45 am)
   
   Polling average
   Trump = 47.2%
   Harris = 48.5%
   
   “Last update: 11:45 a.m., Thursday, October 24. We’ve been starting to see more national polls showing Kamala Harris behind — certainly not a good sign for her given her likely Electoral College disadvantage. Her lead in our national polling average is down to just 1.3 points. The good news for Harris is that our model doesn’t care that much about national polls; instead, our forecast of the popular vote, which is mainly based on extrapolations from state polls, has her up 1.9.
   
   And those state polls were a bit more mixed, though there was a lot of data in the Trump +1 range: still consistent with a race that we’d have to describe as a toss-up, but consistent with a trend toward Trump in recent weeks and just slightly more winning maps than Harris.”
   https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model
   
   FiveThirtyEight (538) Poll Watch (Updated Oct 24, 2024 8:21 pm)
   
   Polling average
   Trump = 46.4%
   Harris = 48.1%
   Electoral College forecast
   Trump = 270
   Harris = 268
   
   Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
   538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
   Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
   
   Election Forecast
   https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 … -forecast/
   Election Polling
   https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po … /national/
   
   The Hill Decision Desk HQ Forecast Poll Watch (Updated Oct 24, 2024 7:48 pm ET)
   
   Polling average
   Trump = 47.7%
   Harris = 48.7%
   Electoral College forecast
   Trump = 272
   Harris = 266
   
   Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 52% chance of winning the Presidency.
   
   Election Forecast
   https://elections2024.thehill.com/forec … president/
   Election Polling
   https://elections2024.thehill.com/natio … p-general/
   
   Race to the WH by Logan Phillips (Oct 24, 2024 updated 12:36 pm ET)
   
   Polling average
   Trump = 46.7%
   Harris = 48.7%
   Electoral College Forecast
   Trump = 263.7 EV
   Harris = 274.3 EV
   Chance to win
   Trump = 48.1%
   Harris = 51.7%
   
   Electoral College Forecast
   https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024
   Election Polling
   https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls
   
   **********
   Reminder
   NBC Decision 2024 obtains Early Vote & Mail-in ballot data through Target Smart. Party registration is based on a combination of state-provided partisanship (when available) and TargetSmart’s model of party affiliation. Nationally, the total number of early votes is an aggregation of the daily state totals sourced from TargetSmart and state officials.
   https://targetsmart.com/

   replyreport
10. 68

    Ken Burgessposted 2 months ago

    Like I say... there will be NO WAY to validate this coming election... not on the National level... in many states that require ID and validation, the elections will still be verifiable and their results trustable.
    
    But in States like CA that have made it illegal to ask for ID or to validate a ballot, well, those results are as trustworthy and legit as a Venezuelan election.

    replyreport
11. 86

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    Updated Sat 10/06/24 6:00 am ET
    
    36,325,688 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
    
    Republican = 40%
    Democrat = 42%
    Other = 18%
    
    Age 65+ = 51%
    Women = 53%
    Mail-in = 54%
    
    11 more days and it will be the big day . . . Tuesday, Nov 5th
    
    The 2020 election saw 158,429,631 votes cast. The 2024 early voting through Sat 10/06/24 6:00 am ET is 23% of that.

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12. 86

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    Updated Oct 27, 2024 6:00 am ET
    
    40,171,103 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally
    From NBC News Decision 2024 Early Vote
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
    
    24% of registered voters have cast a ballot. Based on 2020's 66% turnout 36% of voters have cast their ballot.
    
    Republicans = 40%
    Democrats = 42%
    Other = 18%
    
    Age 65+ = 49%
    Age 50 - 64 = 26%
    Age 40 - 49 = 10%
    Age 30 - 39 = 8%
    Age 18 - 29 = 7%
    
    Men = 45%
    Women = 53%
    
    Mail-in ballot = 52%
    In Person = 48%

    replyreport
13. 86

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    Last update Monday Oct 28, 2024 8:13 AM ET NBC News Decision 2024 Early Vote
    
    43,304,817 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally
    
    
    That is 3+ million more cast ballots since Sunday, Oct 27, 2024 6:00 AM ET. Today, 26% of registered voters have cast a ballot.
    
    Stats of cast ballots
    
    Republicans = 40%
    Democrats = 42%
    Other = 18%
    
    Age 65+ = 48%
    Age 50 - 64 = 26%
    Age 40 - 49 = 11%
    Age 30 - 39 = 8%
    Age 18 - 29 = 7%
    
    Women = 53%
    Men = 45%
    
    In-person = 51%
    Mail-in = 49%
    
    Don’t read too much into the early vote. But here is what both parties are watching. published at Politico (Oct 27, 2024)
    Democrats are excited about Michigan. Republicans are optimistic in Nevada..
    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2 … a-00185737
    
    "Unlike polls, which aim to get a representative sample of voters, early voters are not representative of what the final electorate will look like. On average, early voters are older, likely to be highly engaged and more likely to be strong partisans. While early voting tells us who has voted, it does not tell us how anyone voted — important as margins among independent voters could prove key in swing states. And comparisons in early and mail voting to the 2020 election are fraught because of the pandemic and because many states have changed voting laws since then.
    
    Still, campaigns use early-voting data to help them better target remaining voters ahead of Election Day — and they are seeing hope for different reasons."

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14. 86

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    There are 7 days until the Big Day . . . Nov 5th. Where things stand amongst poll analyzing seeking polling averages and predictions. Two sources give the Electoral College to Trump, one to Harris, and one is cautionary. All of them indicate the polling averages are for Harris within the margin of error or there is a probability she will win the popular vote.
    
    46,472,709 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally by NBC News Decision 2024 Early Vote / Last update Oct 29 6:31 AM ET
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
    
    Republican = 40%
    Democrat = 42%
    Other = 18%
    **********
    Age 65+ = 45%
    Age 50 – 64 = 27%
    Age 40 – 49 = 11%
    Age 30 – 39 = 9%
    Age 18 – 29 = 7%
    **********
    Women = 53%
    Mail-in = 51%
    
    Table of battleground/swing states using Nate Silver’s The Silver Bulletin as a guide for the states. Polling data is tracked for those states at his website.
    
    
    
    
    
    “If you know where you are, you are not lost”
    
    The Silver Bulletin Poll Watch (Updated Oct 28, 2024 4:30 pm)
    
    Polling average
    Trump = 47.5%
    Harris = 48.6%
    
    “Last update: 4:30 p.m., Monday, October 28. Just a set of polling today that’s completely all over the place. Good numbers for Harris in Nebraska and Kansas (?!?). Good numbers for Trump in Minnesota and New Hampshire. At least there’s not the usual pollster herding we’ve seen in recent weeks where everybody just publishes the numbers everyone expects.
    
    Still, the most important poll of the day is probably from Wisconsin, a high-quality Suffolk poll that showed Trump up 1 point there. Not much of a lead, but the Badger State has gone from polls slowing a slight Harris lead to a pure toss-up. And the overall Electoral College is still well within toss-up range too, Trump is starting to have just slightly more winning maps in our simulations, with his highest win probably since Sept. 17.
    Get the scoop of polls at . . .
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model
    
    FiveThirtyEight (538) Poll Watch (Updated Oct 2, 2024 7:33 pm)
    
    Polling average
    Trump = 46.6%
    Harris = 48.1%
    
    Electoral College forecast
    Trump = 277
    Harris = 261
    
    Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
    
    538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
    Trump wins 54 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Harris wins 46 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
    
    Election Polling
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po … /national/
    
    Election forecast
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 … -forecast/
    
    The Hill Decision Desk HQ Forecast Poll Watch (Updated Oct 24, 2024 7:48 pm ET)
    
    Polling average
    Trump = 47.9%
    Harris = 48.6%
    
    Electoral College forecast
    Trump = 276
    Harris = 262
    
    “Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 54% chance of winning the Presidency.”
    
    Election Polling
    https://elections2024.thehill.com/natio … p-general/
    
    Election Forecast
    https://elections2024.thehill.com/forec … president/
    
    Race to the WH by Logan Phillips (Oct 28, 2024 updated 2:59 pm ET)
    
    Polling average
    Trump = 47.1%
    Harris = 49.7%
    
    Electoral College Forecast
    Trump = 263.9 EV
    Harris = 274.1 EV
    
    Chance to win
    Trump = 48.6%
    Harris = 51.2%
    
    Election Polling
    https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls
    
    Election Forecast
    https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024

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15. 80

    Vlado - Val Karasposted 2 months ago

    According to my simple logic coming from a total political cynicism with no political favorites to support -- it is just laughable that a proven felon is allowed to run for presidency. So, my reasoning says -- either he doesn't qualify as such, or the Justice system is completely ignorable, which then also makes the Constitution merely a subject to interpretation.
    I find all this political Forum's mambo jumbo incredibly naive, with participants not showing much brains to write another article but using this space for their political rambling. They make this website turn into a barber shop where hair cutting is only of a secondary importance to discussions on politics.
    What a waste of writing skills, when quoting others' opinions, and polls, and political speculations becomes such a useless passion which ultimately makes no difference in the big picture.
    At point where my political cynicism borders with sarcasm, I hope that he wins, so that the MAGA folks see how this godsend and political messiah is miraculously "making America great again".
    And if he fails, the old excuse will be used: "The opposition keeps sabotaging his noble efforts, while all those promises were not just for amassing the votes.
    (That family lawyer Cohn must have been a good mentor -- for awhile, before he crushed morally, legally, mentally and physically at the age of 60.)

    replyreport
    1. 68

       Ken Burgessposted 2 months agoin reply to this

       Well... aren't we full of ourselves today?
       
       What motivates someone to type a multi-paragraph rambling of insults and innuendos?

       replyreport
    2. 74

       Kathleen Cochranposted 2 months agoin reply to this

       Vlado:  "what a waste of writing skills"  Not all of us. Some of us still write articles, but HP no longer allows the writer to have interaction with their readers, so we go to the discussion boards. Look at some of our profiles for articles on politics, history, and many topics related to these discussions.
       
       https://discover.hubpages.com/politics/He-lies
       
       https://discover.hubpages.com/religion- … ristianity
       
       https://discover.hubpages.com/politics/ … oming-From
       
       https://hubpages.com/politics/How-Would … e-of-20016
       
       https://discover.hubpages.com/politics/ … Get-So-Big
       
       https://hubpages.com/politics/Objectivity-Not-So-Much
       
       https://discover.hubpages.com/politics/ … emember-It
       
       https://discover.hubpages.com/politics/ … -the-World

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16. 80

    Vlado - Val Karasposted 2 months ago

    I see people apologizing here, so I got this idea to offer a bunch of my own (albeit conditional) apologies to all Trumpists.
    So, I apologize for my badmouthing their political idol if all those 60+ judges who dropped the idea of the 2020 election being rigged, were leftists. And I apologize if all documents, witnesses, prosecutors and judges handling Trump's business, private, and political behaviors were fake and politically motivated. And I am truly sorry if all those over 25 bona fide psychiatrists who diagnosed him as unstable and dangerous were also leftists.
    And I must have misjudged his business and organizational skills while buying into the story of his 6 bankruptcies -- for which I am sorry.
    Above all, I am asking for forgiveness for not recognizing a true "stable genius" after all those brilliant ideas about wind-turbines causing cancer, covid being curable with household detergents, hurricanes stopped by being nuked, and after seeing how eager was Mexico to pay for the wall.
    It seems that I have been gaslighted by a bunch of fake news, whereas all the news glorifying Trump simply must have been true.
    I admit, my logicalness fails me a lot, especially since -- silly me -- I keep wondering why none of the previous Republican candidates have ever been so witch-hunted before by the Democrats, demonizing an innocent man and a great patriot.
    Well, I guess it comes with age, as in two months I will turn 80, so my brain obviously doesn't know whether it's coming or going anymore, and I should stick to writing bad poetry and leave American politics alone.
    Imagine, here I am seeing the statistics of crimes in America, and it's the Whites who are committing as much as double of it when compared to Latinos and Blacks.
    On a funny side, and I like laughing, it's like Mexicans are only coming back to their territory after about a half of Mexico was forcefully annexed to the US. And Trump will bring some justice to that historical fact -- possibly by separating some hundreds of more children from their parents in that familiar noble act.
    Well, I have had some fun with these two comments, and now I am planning to look for fun at places where some true comedians are displaying their talents.
    And yes, I apologize for writing all this nonsense.

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17. 80

    Vlado - Val Karasposted 2 months ago

    Ken, we can't debunk someone's arguments by trying to discredit them with a personal belittling response. Actually, it's Trump's infamous strategy, as he is calling Kamala "stupid" and alike -- whereas it takes an intelligent person to have been a prosecutor, a state's Attorney General and a Vice President. So I see the strategy is quite contagious among his disciples.
    It was actually quite ancient, as Cicero, the Roman famous orator was advising his students to "insult their opponent when they are at a lack of a good argument". Albeit, somehow I don't believe that Trump learned it by studying the Greco-Roman history.
    So, you had an opportunity to also be "full of yourself" by saying why any of my descriptions of Trump was wrong -- unless you would use the classical one that "it's all a fake information -- period".
    As for my observation that these forums are being used for political rambling, everyone can see that, it's obvious, I am not making it up, so it is not my "personal motivation" to belittle "something great" going on here.
    Go ahead, I don't own this website, feel free to write what you want, and don't mind it either if I also find it funny in the name of that same freedom of speech.
    I am done here.

    replyreport
    1. 68

       Ken Burgessposted 2 months agoin reply to this

       I would imagine these Threads in these Political forums are used "for political rambling, everyone can see that, it's obvious,"...
       
       Because these are the... Political and Social forums...
       
       Imagine that... people going on about politics... in the Political forums!!!
       
       As for the character of Trump... some people like to dwell on that...
       
       Some people like to dwell on the RESULTS...
       
       Are people better off today than they were 4 or 5 years ago?
       
       Who was impacted the MOST by inflation... higher taxation... and higher interest rates?
       
       Who benefited from all these Green New Deal... spending sprees?
       
       What was the benefit to American citizens for bringing in millions of migrants and putting them on the government tit?
       
       What benefit did we get allowing/spending/sending hundreds of billions to Ukraine and Iran... how are those regions/wars panning out for America?
       
       Some people want to ignore Biden's corruption, Biden's dementia, and the crack-head son he has... hey, he has a D next to his name, that is all that matters. Some people think Harris will bring "change and joy"...
       
       But you keep being you... so disinterested in our politics you can't resist filling these forums with your cynicism and efforts at wit.

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    2. 74

       Kathleen Cochranposted 2 months agoin reply to this

       "I am done here."
       
       How many times have I typed those words.
       
       For the sake of these discussions being "fair and balanced" - I hope not.

       replyreport
18. 86

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    52,507,869 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally Last update Oct 30, 2024 8:03 am ET
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
    
    That is 6+ million more votes since yesterday, Tue Oct 29th. 31% of registered voters have cast a ballot nationally.
    
    Info . . .
    
    Republican = 40%
    Democrat = 41%
    Other = 19%
    
    65+ = 45% of ballots cast
    50 - 64 = 27%
    40 - 49 = 11%
    30 - 39 = 9%
    18 - 29 = 8%
    
    53% ballots cast were women
    
    52% was in-person voting

    replyreport
19. 86

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    Last update Thursday, Oct 31, 8:04 AM ET by NBC News Decision 2024 Early Vote
    
    58,390,685 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally That is 35% of registered voters. Five more days and it will be Nov 5th when half of the voting population are projected to vote.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
    
    Data of cast ballots
    
    Republican = 40%
    Democrat = 41%
    Other = 19%
    
    Age group
    65+ = 44%
    50 - 64 = 27%
    40 - 49 = 12%
    30 - 39 = 9%
    18 - 29 = 8%
    
    Women = 54%
    Men = 44%
    
    In-Person voting = 53%
    Mail-in ballot = 47%

    replyreport
20. 86

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    Last updated Friday Nov 1, 7:39 AM ET
    
    Just 4 days of early voting left!!
    
    62,809,298 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally from NBC News Decision 2024 Early Vote
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
    
    That is 37% of registered voters. Upward to half of registered voters are anticipated to vote early and send in their mail-in ballot before the big day . . . November 5th.
    
    Snap shot of cast ballots
    
    Republican = 40%
    Democrat = 41%
    Other  = 19%
    
    By age
    65+ = 43%
    50 - 64 = 27%
    40 - 49 =12%
    30 - 39 = 10%
    18 - 29 = 8%
    
    Women = 54%
    Men = 44%
    
    In-person = 54%
    Mail-in = 46%

    replyreport
21. 86

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    There are 3 days until the Big Day . . . Nov 5th. Where things stand amongst poll analyzing seeking polling averages and predictions. Two sources give the Electoral College to Trump, one to Harris, and one is cautionary. All of them indicate the polling averages are for Harris within the margin of error or there is a probability she will win the popular vote. However, a slight breeze across America may alter its future. Keeping an eye on the weather might prove to be prudent.
    
    66,741,968 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally by NBC News Decision 2024 Early Vote / Last update Nov 2 6:00 AM ET
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
    
    What the data says.
    
    Republican = 40%
    Democrat = 41%
    Other = 19%
    
    **********
    Age 65+ = 43%
    Age 50 – 64 = 27%
    Age 40 – 49 = 12%
    Age 30 – 39 = 10%
    Age 18 – 29 = 8%
    
    **********
    Women = 53%
    Men = 44%
    Unknown = 3%
    
    **********
    Mail-in = 46%
    In-Person = 54%
    
    Table of battleground/swing states using Nate Silver’s The Silver Bulletin as a guide for the states. Polling data is tracked for those states at his website.
    
    
    
    
    “If you know where you are, you are not lost”
    
    The Silver Bulletin Poll Watch (Updated Nov 1, 2024 3:30 pm)
    
    Polling average
    Trump = 47.4%
    Harris = 48.5%
    
    “Last update: 3:30 p.m., Friday, November 1. We’re running our PM update relatively early today, but the topline Electoral College numbers are unchanged down to the decimal point. The most interesting survey of the afternoon is a Susquehanna poll showing Trump up 6 points in Nevada — where he now leads by 0.6 points in our average — but with a sample size of just 400 voters and Nevada unlikely to be the tipping-point state, it didn’t influence the model much.
    
    10:15 a.m., Friday, November 1. Good update for Harris with some strong polling for her in the Blue Wall states. Not much sign of a last-minute swing in the race. We are likely locked into something roughly in the toss-up range, unless the last round of NYT/Siena polls weigh strongly toward one side. We’ll run another update in the afternoon if there’s a significant amount of polling.”
    
    Get the scoop of polls at . . .
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model
    
    FiveThirtyEight (538) Poll Watch (Updated Nov 1, 2024 9:58 pm)
    
    Polling average
    Trump = 46.8%
    Harris = 48.0%
    
    Electoral College forecast
    Trump = 270
    Harris = 268
    
    Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
    
    538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
    Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
    
    Election Polling
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po … /national/
    
    Election forecast
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 … -forecast/
    
    The Hill Decision Desk HQ Forecast Poll Watch (Updated Nov 1, 2024 9:30 pm ET)
    
    Polling average
    Trump = 48.0%
    Harris = 48.3%
    
    Electoral College forecast
    Trump = 276
    Harris = 262
    
    “Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 54% chance of winning the Presidency.”
    
    Election Polling
    https://elections2024.thehill.com/natio … p-general/
    
    Election Forecast
    https://elections2024.thehill.com/forec … president/
    
    Race to the WH by Logan Phillips (Nov 1, 2024 updated 9:32 pm ET)
    
    Polling average
    Trump = 47.2%
    Harris = 48.8%
    RFK = 2.2%
    Stein = 1%
    
    Electoral College Forecast
    Trump = 263.4 EV
    Harris = 274.6 EV
    
    Chance to win
    Trump = 50.0%
    Harris = 49.9%
    
    Election Polling
    https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls
    
    Election Forecast
    https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024

    replyreport
22. 86

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    Updated Sunday, Nov 3, 2024 7:45 am ET or 4:45 PT
    
    5+ million early in-person or mail-in ballots cast on Saturday, Nov 2nd.
    
    72,181,302 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally reported by NBC News Decision 2024 Early Vote
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
    
    That is 43% of registered voters nationally.
    
    Data shows
    
    Republican = 40%
    Democrat = 40%
    Other = 20%
    
    The breakdown
    
    Age
    65+ = 42%
    50-64 = 27%
    40-49 = 12%
    30-39 = 10%
    18-29 = 9%
    
    Women = 53%
    Men = 44%
    Unknown = 3%
    
    In-person = 54%
    Mail-in = 46%
    
    **********
    A poll in Iowa is the talk of the town now. A deep red state recent poll by pollster Ann Selzer has Harris ahead of Trump 47% to 44%. How is Iowa early & mail-in vote coming along?
    
    40% of cast votes are Republican
    39% are Democrat
    21% are other the wildcards
    
    Read about the Poll sponsored by Des Moines Register at the link next.
    Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story … 354033007/
    
    What does Nate Silver say it means? Read his analysis at link next.
    A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-shocking … s-somebody

    replyreport
23. 86

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    Updated Monday Nov 4, 2024 8:06 am ET
    
    76,183,090 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally by NBC News Decision 2024 Early Vote
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
    
    That is 45% of registered voters have cast a ballot through Sunday Nov 3rd. It was projected 44% would.
    
    The data shows
    
    Republicans = 39%
    Democrats = 41%
    Other = 20%
    
    The breakdown
    
    Age
    65+ = 40%
    50 - 64 = 27%
    40 - 49 = 13%
    30 - 39 = 11%
    18 - 29 = 9%
    
    Women = 53%
    Men = 44%
    Unknown = 3%
    
    In-person = 55%
    Mail-in = 45%
    
    What Nate Silver says about the polling . . .
    
    "Last update: 7:45 p.m., Sunday, November 3. A fair bit of polling in the afternoon, some of it pretty middling for Kamala Harris, but also mostly from mediocre and/or Republican-leaning polling firms that tend to herd toward numbers like Trump +1 or Trump +2 and don’t impact the forecast much. A bit more worrisome is a YouGov national poll that showed the race tied — they’ve usually been one of Harris’s better pollsters. Still, Harris got plenty of strong polling from high-quality firms this weekend too, so there’s no real change in the state of the race."
    
    Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model

    replyreport