The One-Stop Thread for Polling

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   Valeantposted 2 months ago

   Here's a place for all the recent polling.

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      tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      I use The Hill 2024 Election Center to keep up with polls. They have a rolling tabulation of polls and they list recent polls results updating daily. You can view each of the polls in list form.
      
      The rolling tabulation has Harris with a 3.7% lead over Trump based on 193 polls. For Sept. 17th it shows Harris 49.7% & Trump at 46.0%. There data begins with Jan 20th, 2023.
      
      Harris vs. Trump polls by The Hill
      https://elections2024.thehill.com/natio … p-general/
      
      At that election center landing page there is a drop down menu for states. It lists the possible swing/battle ground states, ten of them. You can see those states recent polls using that.
      
      For instance for Pennsylvania the rolling data has Harris at 48.4% and Trump at 48.2% based on 140 polls since Feb 14, 2024. It too lists each poll to be viewed for each state.
      
      [Edit: The most recent Pennsylvania poll is Sept 14 - 15 by Insider Advantage. It has Trump at +2]

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         Valeantposted 2 months agoin reply to this

         Good resource.  I'm using 538 polling to look at the individual options.

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      tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      Looking about discovered an interesting article by Axios . . . (a short read)
      
      Exclusive poll: Young people are nervous about 2024 election (09/16/24)
      https://www.axios.com/2024/09/17/young- … tions-poll
      
      "Nervous" and "scared" — by a longshot — are the most common feelings young people have about the election, according to a poll from American University's Sine Institute and Generation Lab shared exclusively with Axios.
      
      Why it matters: Young voters are a key voting bloc for Vice President Harris' campaign, and she's relying on young women in particular to turn out.
      
      Former President Trump, meanwhile, is going after the "bro" vote and courting young men without college degrees.
      
      Zoom in: 32% of Americans ages 18-34 reported feeling both nervous and scared about the upcoming election, according to the poll.
      
      A majority of those polled ranked the economy, including the cost of living, as a key issue in how they'll decide who to vote for in the upcoming election.
      
      By the numbers: Among the registered voters who were polled, 55% said they'd vote for Harris and 24% said they'd vote for Trump. Another 11% opted for a third party.
      
      Meanwhile, 10% remained undecided but a majority said they'd cast a ballot for Harris if they had to choose.
      
      Flashback: In this poll, Harris just about matches Hillary Clinton's 2016 numbers and President Biden's 2020 figures among young voters, while Trump lags behind his numbers from the past two elections.
      
      In 2016, Clinton topped Trump 58-28 among voters 18-29, and in 2020 Biden topped Trump 59-35 among voters 18-29, according to Pew.

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         Valeantposted 2 months agoin reply to this

         Harris just this week got endorsements from Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish.  Let's see if that gives Harris a bump in the 18-29 voters in a few weeks.

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            tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

            That would be interesting to follow for effect. I have heard due to Taylor Swirft's announcement there was a significant uptick in voter registration. That is a step in the right direction.

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      tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      I subscribe to the Silver Bulletin put out by Nate Silver. "Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023."
      
      The most recent Silver Bulletin was on Sept. 17th. There is a difference in information provided to subscribers contrast released to the public. The link next is what was released on the 17th.
      
      Last update: 12:15 p.m., Tuesday, September 17. Kamala Harris’s lead in national polls is up to 2.9 points, improved from 2.2 points before last week’s debate. There’s been a high volume of national polling, so this is pretty clearly some sort of debate bounce.
      
      Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast (Sept 17, 2024)
      All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
      https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model
      
      The very first graphic is interactive to view by national and by different states. There are 12 states used that are battle ground or potential battle ground states. It begins with June 30th for data of varying polls.
      
      The next graphic shows the change of polls for a week and a month by state, which is valuable to see a trend visually. It is a list format.
      
      The next graphic again interactive offering opportunity to see the national perspective and by state of the listed polls used for his analysis.

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         tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

         Today, Sept 18, 2024, Silver Bulletin article . . .
         
         Mad about the Electoral College? Blame California.
         What an eccentricity in the model reveals about the Electoral College. And why Angelinos should move to Alaska.
         https://www.natesilver.net/p/mad-about- … lege-blame
         
         Worth a read to get Silver's viewpoint on current polls regarding the electoral college shared with his expertise.
         
         " . . . As a result, there’s almost a 25 percent chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College — but little of the other way around."

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      tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      As an aside I decided to label this OP thread, The bottom line using 'business' vernacular.

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      tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      The Hill published;
      
      5 takeaways from the latest flurry of Harris-Trump polls (Sept 20, 2024)
      https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 … ouse-race/
      
      Takeaway #1 - It’s better to be Harris than Trump — slightly
      
      Takeaway #2 - Trump has plenty of reasons for hope
      
      Takeaway #3 - It’s tough to separate the signal from the noise
      
      Takeaway #4 - When all is said and done, it’s still a coin flip
      
      Takeaway #5 - The polls keep telling us the best issues for either side

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      tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      The latest Quinnipiac University poll for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
      
      Swing State Poll 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin: Harris Ahead In 2 Key Battleground States, 3rd State Up For Grabs, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Democrats Have Leads In All 3 States (Sept 18, 2024)
      https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3905
      
      PENNSYLVANIA: Harris 51%, Trump 45%, Stein 1%, Oliver 1%
      
      MICHIGAN: Harris 50%, Trump 45%, Stein 2%
      
      WISCONSIN: Harris 48%, Trump 47%, Stein 1%
      
      The article is a deep dive including the candidates on the issues. They surveyed five. Results, next.
      
      The race is competitive on most issues. Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling five issues...
      
      The economy:
      
          PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
          MI: 50 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
          WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.
      
      Immigration:
      
          PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
          MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
          WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.
      
      Preserving democracy in the United States:
      
          PA: 45 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
          MI: 45 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris;
          WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris.
      
      Abortion:
      
          PA: 38 percent say Trump, while 57 percent say Harris;
          MI: 42 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris;
          WI: 40 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris.
      
      A crisis that put the country at great risk:
      
          PA: 47 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris;
          MI: 47 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris;
          WI: 48 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris.
      
      The ten poll questions results are published in the article. Some questions had more than one part, thus more questions were actually asked.
      
      An example:
      
      4. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
      -    LIKELY VOTERS
      -    MI    PA    WI
      Favorable    48%    48%    46%
      Unfavorable    47    43    48
      Hvn't hrd enough    3    7    4
      REFUSED    2    2    1
      
      5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
      -    LIKELY VOTERS
      -    MI    PA    WI
      Favorable    44%    44%    46%
      Unfavorable    53    53    50
      Hvn't hrd enough    2    2    2
      REFUSED    2    2    2

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2. 74

   Valeantposted 2 months ago

   9/13-17 polling on favorability:
   
   Harris
   -Morning Consult (53% favorable, 46% unfavorable)
   -Angus Reid Global (48% favorable, 48% unfavorable)
   
   Trump
   -Morning Consult (44% favorable, 54% unfavorable)
   -Angus Reid Global (43% favorable, 54% unfavorable)
   
   Morning Consult VP Candidates:
   -Walz (46% favorable, 36% unfavorable)
   -Vance (37% favorable, 47% unfavorable)

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   IslandBitesposted 2 months ago

   FOX NEWS POLL:One candidate grabs 50% support as presidential election nears
   
   Harris tops Trump by two points
   The latest Fox News national survey finds 3-point shift since August
   
   The new Fox News national survey finds a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50%-48%. For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error.
   
   This marks the first time Harris has hit 50% support, and the trial ballot result is identical among both registered and likely voters.
   
   The biggest change since last month is that independents and Hispanics have swung Harris’ way. Hispanics favored Trump by 6 points in August, but they go for Harris by 12 points today. Independents went for Trump by 8 points last month, but now prefer Harris by 12. It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here.
   
   https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/ … two-points

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      Valeantposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      Those are pretty big shifts in the Hispanic and Independent voters.

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4. 74

   Valeantposted 2 months ago

   Without PA, it's going to be a tough road for Trump.  So, this latest poll is a major hit to his chances.

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5. 74

   Valeantposted 2 months ago

   NBC News Poll:
   
   National:
   Harris 49%, Trump 44%.
   
   Which candidate Represents Change:
   Harris 47%, Trump 38%

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6. 74

   Valeantposted 2 months ago

   Harvard Poll
   
   2024 Among Young Voters (aged 18-29):
   Harris 64%, Trump 32%
   
   Back in April, that numbers was Biden 56%, Trump 37%

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7. 87

   tsmogposted 2 months ago

   A recent AP/Norc poll for Waltz and Vance and more. Take a peek at the following three graphics. There is a comparison of August with September, 2024. A deep dive into Harris-Waltz & Trump-Vance.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   Source:
   
   Tim Walz is viewed more positively by voters than JD Vance by AP/Norc (Sept 25, 2024)
   https://apnorc.org/projects/tim-walz-is … -jd-vance/

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      Valeantposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      Yeah, both Walz and Harris' favorability has been rising.  Harris showed she could handle a fake tough guy during the debate, likely leading to more Independent voters feeling she was up to the task of being President.

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8. 87

   tsmogposted 2 months ago

   Just for something different . . .
   
   A Pennsylvania bakery known for its election cookie poll is swamped with orders published at AP News (Sept 25, 2024)
   https://apnews.com/article/presidential … oon%20Wire
   
   "The cookie poll started in 2008 and accurately predicted the winner the first three times, but not in 2020, when Republican Donald Trump lost the election for the White House to Democrat Joe Biden."
   
   Further along at the end its shares . . .
   
   "This year, election cookie sales are outpacing 2020’s sales."
   
   And, then . . .
   
   "Trump’s numbers may have gotten a boost after he shared a story about the cookie poll on his social media platform. As of Tuesday (Sept 24th), Trump was leading Harris, 12,558 to 889 — a far bigger lead than pollsters have found."
   
   Perhaps, an effect of Trump posting about it on Truth Social?

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      Valeantposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      Yeah, imagine if he used his media platform to actually help others more often instead of inciting bomb threats at schools.

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      Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

      Thanks for sharing this! It’s refreshing to see a light-hearted and fun comment.
      
      Hey, if our leader says to buy cookies, we have to demonstrate our loyalty and devotion by getting them! Jokes aside, I can see that when he shared the story on Truth, many users likely bought the cookies to show their support. I really enjoy Truth Social; it encourages meaningful conversations and allows us to connect with like-minded individuals.

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         tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

         Yeah, a change in pace offers opportunity. I would be interested to know what Trump said in his post about the cookie poll.

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            Valeantposted 2 months agoin reply to this

            The poll was something self-serving, so he probably begged his supporters to buy them.

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               tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

               Probably. A thought I had is how much Trump disliked not having won the popular vote in both 2016 & 2020.

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9. 87

   tsmogposted 2 months ago

   2024 National: Trump vs. Harris by Real Clear Polling (Sept 26, 2024)
   https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ … -vs-harris
   
   Trump = 47.2 aggregate from Mar 28 thru Sept 23
   
   Harris 49.2
   
   See polling graph that is interactive for battle ground states.

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      Valeantposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      Not much movement.  Interested to see how all the new voter registrations play out in November.

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         tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

         Good point. That as well as the 'Get out the vote' campaigns that put the election on the top of more minds. I see in my Facebook feed a lot of opportunities to participate in 'getting out the vote' such as where to sign up in your city, region, or state. They are for the Democrats. I don't see anything from the Republican party and my followers are pretty much balanced between the two parties. The Republican stuff is buy this bobble head or hat or whatever.

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            Valeantposted 2 months agoin reply to this

            To their credit, they have done a good job of closing the gap in states like Pennsylvania since 2022.  What used to be a 500,000 vote edge was down to 343,000 recently.

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10. 87

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    
    
    Source:
    
    September 2024 Virginia Poll: Harris 52%, Trump 44% by Emerson College Polling (Sept 26, 2024)
    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/septe … -trump-44/
    
    "
    
    The economy is the top issue for Virginia voters, followed by housing affordability (14%), threats to democracy (12%), immigration (8%), abortion (6%), healthcare (6%), and education (6%).
    
    “Voters who find the economy to be the top issue break for Trump, 68% to 30%, while voters who say housing affordability is the top issue facing Virginia break for Harris, 76% to 15%,” Kimball added.
    
    A plurality of Virginia voters (40%) would like to see the state’s abortion laws to be less strict, while 39% think they should remain as they are, and 22% think they should be made more strict."

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       Ken Burgessposted 2 months agoin reply to this

       I'm telling ya, Harris is going to win...
       
       Just get your popcorn ready for the shit show to come and enjoy it.
       
       If you are like me, part of the over 55 crowd, then you have had the opportunity to live during the best era in human history in arguably the best country in the world during that time.
       
       If troubled times are ahead at least we had a great ride.

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          Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

          Come on Ken --- Virginia has swung left in the last 4 elections. In 2016 Trump got 44.4% in 2020 he got 44.0%  Looks to be pretty much what we could predict.  Trump is holding his own in the majority of swing states. I am sort of on the same page as Nate Silver Owner of 538 --- Trump could very well win by electoral college.  Over the last few days, I see a real increase in media coverage pointing out some glaring negatives regarding Harris, and social media are swaying.  Read The latest Gallup opinions that came out two days ago --- " Bottom Line
          The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose. Nearly every indicator of the election context is favorable to the Republican Party, and those that aren’t are essentially tied rather than showing a Democratic advantage. Nevertheless, the two major party presidential candidates have similar favorable ratings in Gallup’s September poll, echoing presidential preference polls that suggest a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris." Lots of info to view.
          https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/202 … e-gop.aspx

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             tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

             With the mention of Nate Silver here is a link to today's newsletter (Sept 26, 2024) - the Silver Bulletin.
             
             Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
             https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model
             
             and, the landing page
             https://www.natesilver.net/
             
             From the newsletter . . .
             
             "Last update: 11:45 a.m., Thursday, September 26. Quite a bit of polling, but the race has entered a remarkably steady — and close — phase. Harris leads by 2.8 points nationally and by a hair in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while she trails slightly in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. The Electoral College is a toss-up.

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                Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

                Thanks for the update.

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11. 74

    Valeantposted 2 months ago

    Glad we got Ken's fearmongering post of the day out of the way before 1pm.

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12. 70

    abwilliamsposted 2 months ago

    Amen, we have had a great ride, and there's enough of us who have instilled {that America} in our children and they, in theirs!! We'll not let up nor let go, they'll not let up, nor let go. There may very well be a "shit show" coming with Kamala, but it will be met with a counter "shit show"!! If it causes a literal great divide, then so be it!! The majority of this Nation aren't ready for full-blown Communism, and will not remain idle. For our grandchildren (here already or yet to come) we must do whatever it takes to keep them safe from that which millions have fled... since the beginning of time.

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13. 87

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    In Tight U.S. Presidential Race, Latino Voters’ Preferences Mirror 2020 by  Pew Research (Sept 24, 2024)
    For Latino voters, the economy is the top issue, followed by health care, violent crime and gun policy
    https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-et … rror-2020/
    
    ** Projected Latino voters is 36.2 million or 14.7% of all voters
    
    
    
    

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       Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

       In 2016 trump received 28% of Latino vote, in 2020 he received 32%--- we will be overjoyed to receive 39%... Yikes hope survives eternal!

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          tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

          Good research and fair point . . . will it be enough?

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             Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

             Not sure, he has picked up on the percentage of Black Americans. I feel they are the hidden vote, that one can't predict. In 2016 he received I believe 8%, in 2020 12% some poll show he is at 15%. This correlates with what we see in the Latino vote.  The race is tight. In 2016 the polls always favored Clinton. During the 2020 presidential election, polls generally favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump, particularly in the months leading up to the election. Most national polls indicated that Biden had a consistent lead, often by several percentage points.
             
             In my view, this highlights a key dynamic in the current political landscape, reminiscent of the 2016 race. The palpable frustration among citizens on both sides, coupled with ongoing issues like immigration and gender dynamics, seems to be fueling a desire for change. Many communities are indeed grappling with the impacts of immigration, and rising costs which can amplify feelings of discontent and urgency for reform. I make no predictions especially given how unpredictable elections can be. But the sentiments seem to mimic the sentiments of 2016.

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                tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

                "Your perspective highlights a key dynamic in the current political landscape, reminiscent of the 2016 race."
                
                And, just what is that perspective that I have?

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                   Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

                   Meant to share my view... clicked a Grammarly hint... I murder spelling, find it a good tool.

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                      tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

                      I put Grammarly on hold in the sense it is only alive if I activate it. I like using it when the composition is done, but not as I write.

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                         Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

                         I just let it rip, for spelling and punctuation. I type very fast and end up with lots of problems.

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14. 74

    Valeantposted 2 months ago

    Now, offset all the increases with Latinos and Blacks with the never-Trumpers that left the MAGA cult after January 6 and vowed to never vote for the man again.  Add in all his former staffers and former Republican politicians who are against what Trump has done to the GOP.

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15. 74

    Valeantposted 2 months ago

    Fox News poll puts Harris up 3 points in Georgia.
    
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/harris-sligh … 56119.html
    
    Harris up in 6 of 7 swing states in Morning Consult polling from Sept. 18-25, including up 7 points in Nevada.

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16. 87

    tsmogposted 2 months ago

    Nate Silver the founder of fivethirtyeight (538) personal  newsletter website the Silver Bulletin has several articles worth consideration at the main landing page.
    https://www.natesilver.net/
    
    Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast (Sept 29, 2024)
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model
    Last update: 11 a.m., Sunday, September 29. A slightly better day for Trump than Harris because of.a series of polls from highly-rated AtlasIntel, which showed Trump ahead in 5 of the 7 key swing states — though in contrast to some recent data, the polls had Harris doing better in the Sun Belt than the Rust Belt. With a lot of recent state polling, though, the impact on the forecast is relatively minor.
    
    In other news, Silver Bulletin is now classifying Rasmussen Reports as an intrinsically partisan (GOP) pollster because of a credible report of explicit coordination with the Trump campaign, including leaked emails encouraging the Trump campaign to pay for its polls via third-party sponsors. This is way out of line for any pollster that could plausibly be called non-partisan. However, this doesn’t have much impact on the model because Rasmussen already had a strong GOP-leaning house effect that the model was accounting for.
    
    From Jun 30 thru Sept 29 Harris 49.3%, Trump 46.0%
    At that graphic see individual battle ground states with the interactive
    
    The next graphic lists each state indicating change from last week and last month
    
    Then, table of recent polls
    
    Curious about bias with polls? See . . .
    Which polls are biased toward Harris or Trump?
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/which-poll … ard-harris
    *Statistically* biased, we mean. A guide to house effects in the Silver Bulletin model.
    
    [Edit] Oops! I forgot, sorry. A newsletter about predicting the race.
    The 128 paths to the White House Nate discusses results from 70,000 simulations of his model.
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-128-pa … hite-house
    
    "Let’s try something a little different today: basically, a two-for-one. First, I’ll give you what’s essentially a full newsletter with some big-picture thoughts on where the presidential race stands and how to think about the possibility of a polling error. That part will run free for everyone.
    
    Then we’ll get into the proper Model Talk portion of the newsletter, which I hope will give you insight into how the model thinks about the various plausible permutations of the map. The seven major swing states — for purposes of this column, I won’t get cute and count Florida as one — produce a total of 128 possible combinations (2 to the 7th power). Some of these are much more likely than others, however. The most likely combination — want to guess which one it was? — came up 15,273 times in the 70,000 simulations1 we ran on Sunday morning. The least likely combinations only came up twice. Why are some so much more plausible? And how much can we tell from these seven states alone — do other states like Florida or New Hampshire or even exotic ones like Alaska ever really matter?"

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    Valeantposted 2 months ago

    Trump paying off pollsters to create the reality he wants people to believe?  Who could have guessed that?  Alright, we all could.

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18. 87

    tsmogposted 8 weeks ago

    US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump? by BBC (Oct 6, 2024)
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo
    
    According to 538 the source for the article through Oct 5th Harris has 2.6 lead over Trump. Still within the margin(s) of error for polling averages; Trump = 45.9% while Harris is 48.5%. So, most would say a nail biter.
    
    "Who is winning in swing state polls?
    
    
    
    Right now, the polls are very tight in the seven states considered battlegrounds in this election with just one or two percentage points separating the candidates.
    
    That includes Pennsylvania, which is key as it has the highest number of electoral votes of the seven states and therefore winning it makes it easier to reach the 270 votes needed.
    
    In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day Biden quit the race he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these seven states.
    
    One thing to note is that there are fewer state polls than national polls being carried out at the moment so we have less data to go on and every poll has a margin of error that means the numbers could be higher or lower.
    
    But looking at the trends since Harris joined the race does help highlight the states in which she seems to be in a stronger position, according to the polling averages.
    
    In the chart below you can see that Harris has been leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since the start of August - but the margins are still small.
    
    All three had all been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020 and if Harris can do the same this year then she will be on course to win the election."
    
    
    
    
    
    Voting has begun in some states. Decisions have already been made, yet many remain undecided. Will that make a difference? What is most at contention now - gaining votes or losing votes? How will Hurricane Helene affect voting?

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       Valeantposted 8 weeks agoin reply to this

       Trump is running a disinformation campaign regarding Helene.  Will enough Americans realize he is blatantly lying to them about it and hold him to account for trying to capitalize on American tragedy?

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    Valeantposted 8 weeks ago

    Meidastouch reactions to the latest polling data:
    
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cRsl4yjftQ
    
    Key stats:
    
    NYT/Siena:
    Harris up close to four points nationally, 49+% to low 46%.  Was 47%-47% last month.
    9% of GOP voters say they are voting for Harris.  Was 5% last month.
    
    Morning Consult: (sample size of 11,000+)
    Harris 51% to Trump 45%.  Was Harris +5 last month.
    
    PA Mail and Absentee Returns, by party registration, so far:
    217,366 ballots
    -Dems 71.1% (155,931)
    -GOP 19.0% (43,793)
    -Other 8.1% (17,642)

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20. 74

    Valeantposted 7 weeks ago

    Let's see if Obama campaigning in PA has any effect on the polling in upcoming weeks:
    
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAmdvb_1y-o

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    tsmogposted 7 weeks ago

    What does the youth say about who they are most likely to vote for?
    
    Harvard Youth Poll (Fall 2024) by Harvard Kennedy School / Institute of Politics
    https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/48th … -fall-2024
    
    "A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School indicates that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in a multi-candidate matchup. The 48th Harvard Youth Poll shows Harris leading Trump 64% to 32% among likely voters in a two-way hypothetical scenario with her advantage expanding as young people become more engaged in the electoral process.
    
    
    
    The poll also finds:
    
    ** A significant enthusiasm gap between young Democrats and Republicans, with 74% of young Democrats saying they will "definitely" vote, compared to 60% of young Republicans.
    
    ** A widening gender gap, nearly doubling from 17 points in the Spring poll to 30 points now, with Harris leading 70% to 23% among likely female voters.
    
    **Harris outperforming Trump on key personal qualities and issues, with substantial leads in empathy (+33), relatability (+24), honesty (+22), climate change (+32), abortion (+31), health care (+26), and gun violence prevention (+25) among all young adults.
    
    ** Harris's job approval as Vice President has significantly improved, increasing from 32% in the Spring poll to 44% now.
    
    ** Strong support for progressive policies among young Americans, with 74% favoring capping prescription drug prices and 59% supporting a nationwide law to legalize abortion.
    
    ** Overwhelming rejection of Project 2025 among young Americans, with only 6% viewing it favorably compared to 48% unfavorably. Even among Republicans, we find 14% viewing it favorably and 23% unfavorably.
    
    ** The impact of social media, with 53% of young adults encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception.
    
    It is a thorough reporting of the youth vote with Key Takeaways and 6 graphics with analysis.

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       Sharlee01posted 7 weeks agoin reply to this

       Recent polling indicates that Donald Trump is facing challenges with young voters in the upcoming 2024 election. A Pew Research Center poll shows that Trump performs significantly better among older demographics, particularly those aged 50 and older, where he has a preference of 52% compared to 46% for Kamala Harris. In contrast, voters under 50 lean towards Harris, who garners 50% support against Trump's 41%​(
       Pew Research Center
       
       Yes, recent data indicates that older voters significantly outnumber younger voters, particularly in key demographics. According to the Pew Research Center, voters aged 50 and older prefer Trump over Harris, while those under 50 lean towards Harris. This age-related preference highlights a broader trend where older individuals are more likely to vote, influencing the overall voting landscape​(
       Pew Research Center
       
       https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 … p-matchup/

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          tsmogposted 7 weeks agoin reply to this

          Wow! What a score discovering the Pew Research survey/study. Quite revealing after a skim and review of some of the graphics. I will read it probably on Sunday. I give a lot of credence to Pew Research. One thing I like a lot about their survey/studies is it dispels the myths of generalizations that are advocated.
          
          Yes, the generational divide gives one cause to pause. The trend you pointed out holds true from studies over the years I have seen. Historically it seems the older generations (Us boomers) are more dedicated to voting, however I am unsure how far back that trend goes.
          
          I would be interested in knowing. For example, was that so during 70's when boomers were first voting contrast the silent generation. Remembering of course that the voting age was lowered to 18 in '71 with the 26th amendment. That is speculatively who will vote more now - the boomers.
          
          There are so many variables at play now. The 'Get Out the Vote' campaigns are going to be significant this year. As Topsy-turvy as this year has been with anomalies to traditional election cycles while the race is nick and tuck both with the poplar vote and the electoral college is making it exciting.
          
          I read several articles today the electoral college can come down to one vote or even a tie. If a tie it goes to the House of Representatives. Of course, it is speculation at best. 
          
          Alas, it is still early, right? I got my mail-in ballot this week. I will be sending it in next week. I really don't know who is in the local races until I get the ballot material they send out. We have 10 propositions for the state to vote on too.

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    Valeantposted 7 weeks ago

    Applying the 2022 polling errors to the 2024 election in the battleground states to generate results:
    
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=in5lcHzrlMw

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       tsmogposted 7 weeks agoin reply to this

       The video was quite revealing and gives cause to pay attention to the margin of error on polls. It makes a difference. Nate Silver's the Silver Bulletin keeps me up on how close the race is. I like that he shows the change from 'last week' and 'last month' with the battle ground states.
       
       https://www.natesilver.net/
       
       "Last update: 3 p.m., Friday, October 11. On sketchy plane Wi-Fi so I'll just be expedient about the themes of the week. 1) Best week of swing state polling for Trump since the debate; 2) Nonetheless also probably some tendency for the media to exaggerate what are relatively minor shifts; 3) Also a weird week insofar as Trump has gained ground in what were some of his worst states before but the same is also true for Harris… map is as scrambled (and close) as ever."

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    Sharlee01posted 7 weeks ago

    Oct 11,2024 Real Clear Politics
    As of October 11, 2024, the RCP Average for key battleground states shows the following polling results for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris:
    
    Wisconsin: Trump 48.0%, Harris 48.3% (Harris +0.3)
    Arizona: Trump 48.1%, Harris 47.6% (Trump +0.5)
    Georgia: Trump 48.3%, Harris 47.8% (Trump +0.5)
    Michigan: Trump 48.5%, Harris 47.6% (Trump +0.9)
    Pennsylvania: Trump 48.3%, Harris 47.9% (Trump +0.4)
    North Carolina: Trump 48.7%, Harris 48.2% (Trump +0.5)
    Nevada: Trump 48.2%, Harris 48.0% (Trump +0.2)
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/electi … und-states

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    tsmogposted 7 weeks ago

    The conservative media site Daily Caller says,
    
    Black Voters Make Unexpected Shift Away From Democrats, Poll Shows
    Black voters in the U.S. have shifted support away from Democrats from 2016 to 2024, the most recent New York Times/Siena Poll shows.
    https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/12/blac … rats-poll/
    
    Maybe of importance . . .
    
    "Individuals deemed “leaners” by the NYT/Siena Poll, who did not support Trump or Harris when able to select from various third-party candidates, were asked to choose between the Republican and Democratic nominees; 18% of black voters said they leaned towards Trump, while 15% said they leaned towards Harris."
    
    Take note . . .
    
    "Among the black voters surveyed in the poll, 83% were women, while 70% were men. The margin of error for the black electorate is plus or minus 5.6 points."
    
    Also, a recent poll . . .
    
    Cross-Tabs: October 2024 Times/Inquirer/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Pennsylvania Remember Pennsylvania is a battle ground state.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … stabs.html
    
    All the stats/demographics are revealed for anyone to analyze to satisfy their own curiosity.

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    tsmogposted 7 weeks ago

    Update from Nate Silver's the Silver Bulletin Oct 12, 2024.
    
    "Last update: 11 a.m., Saturday, October 12. We’re running on the early side as we’re assuming that the new New York Times/Siena College polls of Arizona and Pennsylvania are the big polling story of the day. And those polls tell an interesting story: Kamala Harris is up 4 in Pennsylvania but Donald Trump leads by 6 in Arizona. Obviously, most other polls of those states show a closer race — but previous NYT/Siena polls of Arizona and Pennsylvania showed similar results.
    
    It could still be a quirk of small sample sizes — NYT/Siena doesn’t hesitate to publish outliers, a rare trait in today’s polling industry. But they’re also clearly telling a different story of the election than other pollsters, one that involves more shifts in the landscape. (You may see a Model Talk column about this soon.)
    
    For what it’s worth, in theory leading in Pennsylvania but trailing in Arizona is a good trade for Harris, since Pennsylvania is more likely to be the tipping-point state. But since the previous NYT/Siena polls showed similar results, it didn’t have much net effect on the forecast."
    
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model
    
    See graphics for polling average by national and battle ground states. Harris leads by +3 nationally as of Oct 12. Plus, recent polls by national and state.

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    tsmogposted 7 weeks ago

    Trio of new polls agree on where Trump and Harris stand with 3 weeks to go until Election Day by Fox News (Oct 14, 2024)
    Tuesday marks 3 weeks until Election Day in the White House race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trio-n … ection-day
    
    Basically this article is a summation of three polls;
    
    "The surveys indicate a margin of error race between the two major party presidential nominees, with Trump enjoying some momentum in the final stretch.
    
    Harris edged Trump 50%-48% among likely voters questioned in an ABC News/Ipsos poll, down from a six-point lead for the vice president last month.
    
    According to an NBC News poll of registered voters nationwide, the vice president and former president were deadlocked at 48%. That is a major switch from a month ago, when Harris enjoyed a five-point advantage.
    
    Additionally, a CBS News/YouGov nonprobability based survey of likely voters indicated Harris with a three-point edge over Trump, slightly down from a four-point advantage a month ago."
    
    Key observation is Trump is making gains on Harris.
    
    Another perspective is Nate Silver's the Silver Bulletin newsletter release for Oct 14th.
    
    "Last update: 2 p.m., Monday, October 14. Mondays are often slow for polling, with most of the numbers released by Republican-leaning or explicitly GOP-partisan firms. And that was the case today, for instance. Rasmussen Reports has Trump leading by 3 points in Pennsylvania — and from another firm, that would be a strong number for him. But given Rasmussen’s house effect (and indeed explicit coordination with the Trump campaign), it’s in line with other polling showing the Keystone State as a tossup. Still, there’s been a slight upward trajectory for Trump in our forecast over the past week."
    
    For specifics of national and battle ground states with polling average and recent polls check out . . .
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model

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    tsmogposted 7 weeks ago

    Cross-Tabs: October 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the National Likely Electorate (Oct 8, 2024)
    Results of a nationwide New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 3,385 likely voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, 2024.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … stabs.html
    
    
    
    The cross-tabs offers opportunity for a deep dive into polling data. Dozens of data sets are presented. Some state senate polls are presented such as Cruz vs. Allred in Texas and Scott vs. Mucarsel in Florida.
    
    The big question: If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
    
    Harris = 49%
    Trump = 46%
    Don't Know/Refused = 5%
    
    Note: (Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to major-party candidates)

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       Sharlee01posted 7 weeks agoin reply to this

       This is sort of interesting   --- 
       There has been a noticeable increase in Republican voter registrations in 2024. Several states, including Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada, have reported a rise in Republican registrations compared to Democrats. For example, Pennsylvania saw a significant shift, with Republicans registering more new voters than Democrats consistently throughout the year. In Nevada, Republicans also outpaced Democrats in registrations as of late 2023 and early 2024​
       SPOTLIGHT PA
       ​NEVADA GLOBE
       .
       
       The GOP has been making gains in traditionally competitive states, narrowing the registration gap, while the Democrats have faced challenges in maintaining their registration advantage​
       THE POLITICS WATCHER
       
       This increase in Republican registrations could impact the dynamics of the upcoming election, especially in battleground states.
       
       In Illinois, as of October 1, 2024, the voter registration statistics show that there are approximately 8 million registered voters. Among these, 2.76 million are Democrats (about 34.5%), while 2.17 million are Republicans (around 27.1%). Notably, a significant portion of the registered voters—around 2.59 million—are unaffiliated, which makes up about 32.4% of the total.

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    Valeantposted 7 weeks ago

    I bet if we did some polling here, it would find an even split between people thinking Trump will be elected and those that think he will flee to Russia when he loses to avoid his prison sentences.

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    Valeantposted 7 weeks ago

    Georgia:
    
    At least 252,000 voters had cast ballots at early-voting sites as of 4 p.m. EDT, nearly double the 136,000 who participated in the first day of early voting in the 2020 election, said Gabriel Sterling, Georgia's No. 2 election official. "Spectacular turnout," he wrote on social media.

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    tsmogposted 7 weeks ago

    From Nate Silver's the Silver Bulletin (Oct 15, 2024)
    
    "Last update: 2:30 p.m., Tuesday, October 15. Well, we keep emphasizing that the forecast is really close. After another day of polls showing an essentially tied race in the Midwestern battlegrounds, it’s now literally 50/50. We’re just not seeing as many Harris +3 type numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as we did immediately after the debate. It hasn’t been a huge swing, but even a half point to a point makes a difference."
    
    What's happening . . .
    
    Will Harris sit with Joe Rogan on his podcast? Will Trump?
    
    Trump And Harris May Appear On Joe Rogan’s Podcast—Despite His Harsh Comments About Both by Forbes online Magazine (Oct 15, 2024)
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenpas … bout-both/
    
    Key Facts
    
    In a July interview with political commentator Michael Malice, Rogan called Harris “the worst” and an unpopular vice president, said he was bothered to see her suddenly viewed as a “hero” and “solution,” wondered if she was medicated with anti-anxiety medications because of “disconnected ramblings,” but still said he thinks she will win the presidency because people think she’s a stronger alternative than Trump.
    
    In a September interview with comedian Tom Segura, Rogan said, “whoever’s coaching her, whoever’s the puppet master running the strings” is doing a “f****** amazing job.”
    
    In 2022, Rogan said to podcaster Lex Fridman that he’s “not a Trump supporter in any way, shape or form” and has “had the opportunity to have him on my show more than once” but said no each time because he doesn’t want to help him, explaining that his show can “revitalize and rehabilitate” their public image in a “shocking way.”
    
    The “Joe Rogan Experience” has never hosted Trump on the podcast, and Rogan has been outspoken about the candidate, calling Trump a “polarizing figure” and “existential threat to democracy,” although Rogan — a staunch defender of free speech — has also defended Trump supporters and criticized the internet’s portrayal of Trump.
    
    Both candidates have decided to forego traditional media interviews and instead targeted specific—and large—niche audiences through popular podcasts.
    
    Rogan, whose podcast is the largest in the U.S., touts a large audience of young men—including a large Black audience—a coveted demographic for both candidates.

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    Valeantposted 7 weeks ago

    The NBC Poll from the weekend seems to be an outlier as most other top polls have Harris sustaining or inching up slightly compared to a week ago.
    
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIGdI2HKhqw

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    tsmogposted 7 weeks ago

    Are Republican pollsters “flooding the zone?” by The Silver Bulletin of Nate Silver founder of fivethirtyeight (538)
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republ … s-flooding
    
    Get the scoop on polling as it sits today. Caution to false hopes as . . .
    
    But there’s another explanation popular among certain segments of Democrats: Republican pollsters are “flooding the zone” by releasing a bunch of polls that are overly favorable to Trump in an effort to move polling averages rightward and make the race look closer than it actually is. Here’s Simon Rosenberg describing the theory:
    
        “As I wrote in my last look at this rancid project, it is time for those who analyze polls to start acknowledging that there is now a third type of poll - the red wave, right-aligned narrative polling that only exist for a single purpose - to move the polling averages to the right. They are exploiting the “toss it in the averages and everything will work out philosophy” of these sites to once again launder these polls and game the averages - and thus our understanding of the election. Party leaders should expect them to keep these polls coming, and keep working the averages until it looks like Trump is winning in all polling averages.”
    
    
    
    
    
    

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       Sharlee01posted 7 weeks agoin reply to this

       Interesting. In my opinion, which I shared last week in another thread, I feel Harris is losing momentum due to the way she conducts her campaign. It’s been observed that she tends to stick to simple, superficial interviews, repeatedly using the same talking points without offering any clear plan on how she intends to fund her progressive agenda. She’s openly supported the Biden administration's policies, and I think more people are beginning to see that her rhetoric lacks substance, much like her ideologies. I predict her popularity will decline significantly in the coming weeks. Americans are generally quite discerning, and when push comes to shove, I believe they will take a moment to evaluate the situation and see the reality for what it is. I find it amusing that, as Trump gains in the polls, there are always excuses being made in an attempt to draw some of the undecided back into the fold.

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    Valeantposted 7 weeks ago

    And I am of the opposite mindset.  As Trump continues to do more events because he believes he's losing, he is getting exposed for the complete detachment from reality he is suffering.  Like last night, when he told a crowd of Latinos that January 6 was a peaceful transfer of power and you could see multiple people not buying his complete derangement.  No one outside his cult believes the 'we had a peaceful transfer of power' fabrication. 
    
    Or yesterday, when Fox went full North Korea and stacked a town hall full of MAGA-supporting women to heap adulation on Trump and nod their heads when he claimed to be 'the Father of IVF.'  The rest of the nation was like, 'what a poor, old, deluded man.'  Someone get him the help he needs.

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    tsmogposted 6 weeks ago

    Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast (Oct 17, 2024)
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve … olls-model
    
    "Last update: 12:30 p.m., Thursday, October 17. The Electoral College race remains as close to 50/50 as it gets. But with some good polls for Trump entering our database today, like a 2-point lead in a high-quality national poll and a big lead in Georgia (though he trails in North Carolina in the same Quinnipiac poll), if you squint at the probabilities, you’ll see Trump 50.2%, Harris 49.5%. (There’s an 0.3% chance of a 269-269 tie).
    
    That’s not much different from yesterday’s forecast of Harris 50.3%, Trump 49.4%. But however nominal, it’s Trump’s first lead in our model since Sept. 19. There’s a good chance that the lead will continue to shift back and forth, akin to a 110-109 basketball game late in the fourth quarter."
    
    

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    Kathleen Cochranposted 6 weeks ago

    Polls are not votes. It comes down to someone marking that ballot with a clear conscience.

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    tsmogposted 6 weeks ago

    Does Trump have momentum? by The Silver Bulletin (Oct 17, 2024)
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/does-trump-have-momentum
    
    
    
    
    
    "Well, it happened.
    
    It was almost inevitably going to happen at some point, given how close the forecast has been to 50/50 since Kamala Harris took over for Joe Biden. But for the fourth time this cycle, the streams have crossed, and the nominal favorite in the race has changed. Thanks in part to one of the first high-quality national polls in weeks to show him ahead — yes, it’s from Fox News, but Fox News polling has no history of GOP bias — Donald Trump now has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
    
    That’s not much different from Trump’s 49.4 percent chances yesterday: the difference is that he wins the Electoral College an additional 1 time out of 125. But Trump is past the 50-yard line — and above Harris’s chances, which are 49.5 percent1 — for the first time since Sept. 19. (Harris remains a clear but not overwhelming favorite in the popular vote, but that’s not how American elections are decided.)"

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    Sharlee01posted 6 weeks ago

    If polls were correct today ----- " The former president's lead in the battleground states means the pollster is now forecasting that the former president will win the election with 312 Electoral College votes to Harris's 226." News Week
    
    My money is on a very tight race, it will as we know, come down to EC. I feel it safe to say Harris will win the popular vote.

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    Sharlee01posted 6 weeks ago

    Oct 18,2024 News Week" A Fox News national survey of 1,110 registered voters, conducted October 11-14, reveals Trump has a 50 percent to 48 lead over Harris, a reversal of the September results in which Harris led by the same 2-point margin. The results have a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
    
    When broken down further, the results show that the vice president has a 1-point lead over Trump (49 percent to 48) when those with college degrees are asked how they will vote in November. The results among college graduates
    have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
    
    The Trump momentum
    On Friday, Nate Silver's popular forecast confirmed the momentum shifting toward Trump, noting that his chances of winning are at their highest since August. The updated model reflected several strong polling numbers in Trump's favor in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
    
    Fri Oct 18 --- Polling expert Nate Silver said he sees "real movement" toward former President Donald Trump in recent polling data, signaling a shift in key swing states ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
    
    Silver's analysis, based on his presidential model that tracks polling data and electoral trends, indicates that Trump now has a better chance of winning the Electoral College than Vice President Kamala Harris.
    
    "Harris's lead in national polls is down to 2.3 points from a peak of 3.5 on October 2. The race remains a toss-up, but we're at a point where we can be pretty confident this is real movement and not statistical noise," Silver posted on X (formerly Twitter) on Friday.
    
    According to the Silver Bulletin model, Trump has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris' 49.5 percent, despite Harris having a 75 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
    
    Harris had a 12-point lead over Trump among college graduates in a previous Fox News poll in September (55 percent to 43) and a 14-point lead in an August survey (56 percent to 42). The results also show that Trump is ahead of Harris among white voters with college degrees (51 percent to 46), having been 12 points behind the vice president in September."

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    Valeantposted 6 weeks ago

    'When broken down further, the results show that the vice president has a 1-point lead over Trump (49 percent to 48) when those with college degrees are asked how they will vote in November.'
    
    Sounds like someone is fudging the numbers.  No chance Trump is anywhere close in this category.  People with college degrees know Trump is an imbecile.

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    Sharlee01posted 6 weeks ago

    As of mid-October 2024, the current Electoral College projections suggest that Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in the race for the presidency. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is estimated to have 312 electoral votes, while Harris stands at 226, with no significant toss-up states as of the latest updates. This indicates that Trump holds a substantial lead based on polling data and projections in key battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada, all of which have shifted toward the Republican camp in recent months.
    
    Other sources such as 270toWin also show a similar lead for Trump, with polls reflecting a tightening race, but consistently placing him ahead of Harris in crucial states like Pennsylvania and Georgia. Harris’s challenge is compounded by struggling to hold onto traditional Democratic strongholds, while Trump has maintained strong momentum, particularly in states critical to victory in the Electoral College.
    
    In this context, Harris faces an uphill battle to close the gap and flip back the states that have leaned toward Trump as Election Day approaches​

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    Kathleen Cochranposted 6 weeks ago

    Polls are not votes.

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       Sharlee01posted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

       "Polls are not votes" is a valid point to start from, as polls only capture public opinion at a specific time, and don't guarantee election outcomes. However, dismissing polls entirely overlooks the fact that they can give valuable insights into trends, voter sentiment, and potential shifts leading up to an election.
       
       Polls also influence campaigns, affecting strategy, messaging, and even fundraising efforts. While they aren’t perfect and can be wrong (as seen in some recent elections), they can still serve as useful indicators when interpreted carefully.
       
       On the other hand, it's true that polls can’t predict the final results. Only actual votes count on Election Day, and in the U.S., the Electoral College ultimately decides the winner of the presidency. This system sometimes results in outcomes that differ from the popular vote, as seen in the 2000 and 2016 elections. So, while polls are important, they don't equate to votes and cannot replace the critical role of the electoral process. The real measure of democracy is in the actual casting and counting of votes.

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    Sharlee01posted 6 weeks ago

    The Hill  Oct 20 --   Former President Trump on Sunday overtook Vice President Harris for the first time in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast this cycle.
    
    The model predicts Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning the presidency while Harris has a 42 percent chance, as of Sunday.
    
    Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning at approximately 54 to 56 percent, with Trump’s chances at approximately 44 to 46 percent. In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent.
    
    On Oct. 17, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win next month, and Trump took the advantage on Oct. 20.

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    Sharlee01posted 6 weeks ago

    Last update: 1:45 p.m., Sunday, October 20. The data continues to be pretty negative for Kamala Harris. There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading — a difficult circumstance for Harris, given Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage — and her edge in our national polling average is down to 1.7 points. National polls don’t influence the model that much, and the race remains basically a toss-up, but it’s not hard to think of reasons that Trump could win. Nate Silver

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       Valeantposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

       Considering Silver's polling relies on registered and likely voters, and is going to completely miss the mark with younger, newer voters who are going to lean heavily towards Harris thanks to abortion, it's going to be easy to see why he misses the mark as badly as he did in the 2022 midterms.

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    Sharlee01posted 6 weeks ago

    Felt it worthy info to post due to Silver's high rate of being correct in his perdictios. Sometimes against the odds.
    
    Nate Silver is well-known for his election forecasting, particularly through his site FiveThirtyEight. His predictions are based on statistical models that aggregate polling data, demographic trends, and other key factors. He gained widespread recognition in 2008 when he accurately predicted the outcome of the presidential election in 49 out of 50 states and all 35 Senate races. In 2012, his reputation grew even more when he correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. However, the 2016 election was more controversial. Although Silver’s model still showed Hillary Clinton as the favorite, it gave Donald Trump a significantly higher chance of winning (around 28.6%) than most other models. While Trump's victory surprised many, Silver’s model performed better than those who gave Trump virtually no chance. In the 2018 midterms, Silver accurately forecasted that Democrats would win the House and Republicans would hold the Senate, with most of his state-level predictions holding up. For the 2020 election, Silver again predicted Joe Biden as the winner, though there were some misses in states like Florida. Overall, Silver emphasizes probabilities rather than certainties, meaning his models acknowledge the possibility of upsets, as seen in 2016. While his track record is strong, his predictions rely heavily on polling, which has been prone to errors in recent elections, affecting the accuracy of his forecasts. Despite these challenges, Silver remains one of the more accurate and reliable forecasters when it comes to broad election trends.

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    Sharlee01posted 5 weeks ago

    Kamala Harris' Polling Lead Wiped Out With Most Accurate Pollster
    Published Oct 25, 2024 at 10:11 AM EDT   Newsweek
    
    "According to the final New York Times/Siena College poll before the election, conducted between October 20 and 23, Harris and Trump are tied on 48 percent each among 2,516 voters nationwide. Harris was 3 points ahead in the previous survey by the pollster, conducted between September 29 and October 6, a lead just outside of the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 points.
    
    The New York Times and Siena College are rated as the most accurate pollsters by FiveThirtyEight. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
    
    The latest poll is bad news for the Harris campaign, which is struggling to gain an edge over Trump in what could be one of the closest elections in modern history."
    
    Latest from https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
    
    In 2016 or 2020 Trump did not poll this well. Makes one think...

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    Willowarborposted 5 weeks ago

    "Nearly half of Americans say they view former President Trump as a fascist, according to a recent survey."
    
    The ABC News/Ipsos poll, released Friday, defined a fascist as “a political extremist who seeks to act as a dictator, disregards individual rights and threatens or uses force against their opponents.” When asked who exhibits those behaviors, 49 percent of registered voters identified the former president while 22 percent said the same of Vice President Harris.
    
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 … st-survey/

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       My Esotericposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

       Yet many of them will vote for him to be President. That tells me a whole lot of Americans don't want a democracy anymore.

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    My Esotericposted 5 weeks ago

    Sadly, it appears to be a dead heat. Some characterize that as Harris doing poorly. From my view, since Trump keeps claiming (when he isn't bad-mouthing America and our military) he is way ahead in the polls, that he is doing even worse.

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    tsmogposted 5 weeks ago

    When asked when they made up their mind for president, 80% have made up their mind over a month ago, 10% in the past month, 7% in the past week, and 4% have not made up their mind yet.
    
    ** 62% of voters under 30 made up their mind over a month ago, while 20% made up their mind in the past month, 12% in the past week, and 5% have not made up their mind.
    
    October 2024 National Poll: Trump 49%, Harris 49% by Emerson College Polling (Published Oct 26, 2024)
    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/octob … harris-49/
    
    The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted October 23-24, 2024.
    
    “With ten days until Election Day, the national poll finds a divided electorate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In this poll, independents report breaking for Trump 49% to 46% — a reversal from 2020, where they reported voting for Biden by about ten points.”
    
    “Male voters are breaking for Trump by 13 points, 55% to 42%, a larger margin than in 2020, while women break for Harris by ten points, 54% to 44%, underperforming Biden’s support in 2020,” Kimball added."

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       Sharlee01posted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

       Interesting. I always felt independents would lean toward Trump, but to see male voters lean so far—wow.   I think the vote regarding women would vary by state.

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          tsmogposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

          Yes, it is interesting. Independent voters are unpredictable when looking at one poll vs another. A recent CNN poll for independents has them supporting Harris with 45% and Trump 41%. An AP/NORC poll for independents has 41% for Harris and 35% for Trump for favorability.
          
          I'm really curious of the 4-5% of undecided voters. For registered voters that amounts to 8+ million voters. The 2020 election cycle had a 66% turnout, so that means 5+ million voters speculative may decide the election. Of course, it comes down to the electoral college.
          
          CNN
          https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics … index.html
          
          AP/NORC
          https://apnorc.org/projects/registered- … ic-issues/

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             Sharlee01posted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

             It's true that some recent polling data seems all over the map, especially compared to the patterns we saw in 2016 and 2020. With different methodologies and sample weights, certain polls can skew differently—even when they cover the same time period or demographics.  I tend to look to Gallup, Trafalgar, Nate Silver, and Fox for a more reliable read, and I feel like they often cut through the noise to offer a realistic snapshot.
             
             Given what we know about Trump’s base and Harris’s polling history, it wouldn’t be surprising if Trump is ahead by a few points nationally and holding his own in the swing states. This inconsistency might be a sign of polling adjustments or an attempt to shape, rather than reflect, voter sentiment.  This may be tight or being presented as tight. I can't make up my mind.

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                tsmogposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

                I enjoy Nate's newsletter for subscribers. He really gets deep into polling offering his view. Yup, no matter how much bias one has it is a toss up both popular and electoral college at this juncture when considering margin of error.

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                   Sharlee01posted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

                   It seems to appear as a toss-up. Over the past two weeks, I have sort of come to a different conclusion.  I am not foolish enough to speak up about it. I mean I most certainly could be wrong. This time around all feel unfamiliar. So maybe just an intuistion working on overdrive.

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                My Esotericposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

                Here are 538s top 10 pollsters (Trafalgar is one of the worst, btw)
                
                1. NYT/Siena
                2. ABC/Washington Post
                3. Marquette University
                4. YouGov
                5. Monmouth University
                6. Marist College
                7. Suffolk University
                8. Data Orbital (I haven't seen any polls from them)
                9. University of Massachusetts
                10. Emerson

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                   My Esotericposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

                   I run various sorts of statistics on the polling results. The following is for Oct polls only and presents three sets of numbers: 1) All polls, 2) 538 top 20 polls, and 3) 538 top 10 polls. I also do 538/Nate Silver-type tweaks which take into account 1) Likely vs Registered Voters2) Sample Size, and 3) the 538 rating of the poll on Accuracy. Only the national poll is not tweaked in such a fashion. Finally '+' means Harris is up and '-' means Trump is in the lead.
                   
                   
                   NATIONAL POLL: +0.7; +1.4; +1.7. Aggregating all the polls puts this result OUTSIDE the margin of error which means Harris has a 95% or better chance of winning nationally.
                   
                   ARIZONA: -2.1; -2.8; -2.8
                   
                   FLORIDA: -8.4 Outside the MOE. The only hope Harris has here is an overwhelming turnout for Amendment 3 (Marijuana) and Amendment 4 (Abortion)
                   
                   GEORGIA: -2.1; -1.7; -0.5 (only 2 polls)
                   
                   MICHIGAN: -0.8; -0.8; 0.0 (only 1 poll)
                   
                   NEVADA: -0.5 (7 polls); +1.0 (1 poll); +1.0 (1 poll)
                   
                   NORTH CAROLINA: -0.5; -1.1 (4 polls); -1.7 (3 polls)
                   
                   PENNSYLVANIA: -0.3; +1.3; +0.6
                   
                   TEXAS: -6.0 (5 polls, 3 high quality) Outside the MOE Again, Harris' only hope is huge turnout over the abortion issue.
                   
                   WISCONSIN: -0.8; -0.6; -0.6
                   
                   As I said, Turnout!!

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    My Esotericposted 5 weeks ago

    It boils down to a contest of turn-out.
    
    Trump's lead over Harris on the economy is shrinking: 45 - 52 NYT; this is up from 41 - 54 result from a previous NYT poll. However, the Consumer Sentiment rose for the third straight month and people are feeling better about their financial situation.
    
    Harris' lead over Trump on abortion is commanding: 55 - 40 NYT. Every time abortion has been on the ballot, it has brought Democrats out in big numbers. For states that are theoretically in play they are: AZ, FL, NE (has one swing electoral vote), and NV. (The same is true for weed, it brings out Democrats as well and is on the ballot in Fl and NE.)
    
    On the issue of immigration, Trump holds a 54 to 43 NYT lead over Harris.  But that has been shrinking as well, especially among younger voters.
    
    Finally, on saving democracy, Harris leads Trump 51 - 45 NYT.  It seems this lead has been stable.
    
    Harris is showing increasing support in several key demographic groups.
    
    Her gains are especially notable among younger voters (ages 18-29), where she leads by around 16 percentage points, and among women, who support her by a 14-point margin. It appears her gain with younger voters is with young women who are more likely to vote than young men.
    
    She’s also gained traction with Black voters, holding around 84% of their support; it is even higher with black women who are more likely to vote. That said, the 84% is better than Biden when he dropped out, it is not better than the all time high.
    
    She is also performing better than Biden with Hispanic voters, again especially with women who are more likely to vote, Interestingly, this group say they are more willing to change their vote.
    
    Harris has been closing gaps with independents, a group Trump initially led in the race against Biden. She has a 45 - 41 lead over Trump in a recent CNN poll.
    
    Overall, her improved standing with these demographics has tightened the race significantly over the last 100 days of her candidacy, turning several battleground states into virtual ties.
    
    What all of the above suggests is that Harris is going in with momentum (in spite of having her "bump" disappear as expected).
    
    This reminds me of what I saw in 2016 with Clinton and Trump, except it was Trump who gained the momentum after Comey's ill-timed letter to Congress.
    
    
    
    As a side note, NE has come into play for Senate. In the last 45 days, Fisher(R) lead over Osborne(D) has shrunk from +4 to +1.  In Texas, Allred(D) is closing in on Cruz(D), but not has dramatically.

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    Willowarborposted 5 weeks ago

    Just throwing in a thought about the validity of polling.  Most are taken by phone.  I'm not sure who they're actually reaching.  Landlines have gone the way of the dinosaur.  How many people are likely to answer a phone call coming from a random number? Even a text coming from the same?  The results, for me, are more than likely skewed.
    
    "There’s a whole class of Americans who don’t answer calls with caller IDs that they don’t know,” Hill said. “If we’re honest … this is all a complete mess today because we can’t really have a true random sample anymore because we can’t get a random sample or anything close to that to cooperate.” 
    
    https://www.pbs.org/publiceditor/blogs/ … ith-polls/

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