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2012 On Track to be Banner Year for UFOs

Updated on March 29, 2015
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MUFON UFO Journal author (March 1995, June 1996). Self published on UFO Window website from 1997 to 2002. Hubpages articles began late 2011.

If you look at the chart above you will clearly see that the first half of last year was just average while the second half was exceptionally high. Not only was the period higher than normal but December, usually the lowest month during the last half of the year, was so outstanding that it goes down in the record books as the biggest December for UFO sightings ever. What that fact may indicate is that we are in the middle of a UFO storm that peaked in December and extends 5 months on either side of it.

Interestingly, I have predicted that my proposed 3.19 year UFO crash cycle (with an effect that lasts five months before and after it crests) just peaked on 1/26/2012 and there was a UFO flap on 12/31/2011 and 1/1/2012 (also when my proposed day cycle B was supposed to be peaking). What this may mean is that the 3.19 year cycle peaked a few weeks earlier than my estimate. But it is still too early to tell. We will know better a year from now when we can look at 2012 from the rear view mirror. If we look further back in time at the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) data, we see peaks in the months of October and November 2008 and September 2005, which match when the 3.19 year cycle should have peaked (or 11/18/2008 and 9/10/2005 to be exact).

Not only does the monthly numbers seem to point to heightened UFO activity for at least the next few months, but a look at the raw annual sightings numbers from the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) points to 2012 being set to become the biggest year for sightings as well.

Looking at the chart below you will see what looks like a four year cycle of peaks in 2004 and 2008. The later year had 10.5% more sightings than the former year and I have projected 2012 in the graphic display to peak at 10.5% above the 2008 sightings level.

In the same chart is a dashed horizontal line which represents the average for the 2002-2011 period (4,565 is the annual average, 380.4 is the monthly average, and 12.5 is the daily average). Since there is an upward trend over the years (most likely due to there being less obstacles to reporting as time goes on), the average presently is more like 4,800 reports per year (with a monthly average now more like 400 and a daily average of about 13.1). The total number of sightings in 2004 was 4,693 and in 2008 it was 5,186. Last year was also a big year with 5,205 reports, but I expect there to be close to an estimated 5,731 reports in 2012. If I were Peter Davenport (director at NUFORC), I would seriously consider acquiring at least one or two additional staff members to handle the increase in reports that is expected (but then he doesn't have as much confidence in predicting UFO activity as I do).

© 2012 Joseph Ritrovato

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