UFO Sightings Weather Report

In my last hub related to UFOs I tried to zero in on the best areas for UFO hunters to set their sights on. Unfortunately, the NUFORC data wasn't complete at that time. Things stand better this time around since NUFORC posted on 6/8/12. The above map charts out the best locations to witness UFOs, based on an average of the NUFORC and MUFON sighting reports (after removing duplicate entries and ones that appear to be either misidentifications, fantasies, or hoaxes) for an 85 day period (12 weeks) from 3/12/12 to 6/4/12.

Generally, sightings have been on a downward slope for the last 5 months (decreasing by 18% when comparing the last 6 months of last year to the first 5 months of this year), but that is not unusual since the last half of any given year almost always has more sightings than the first half. One promising sign is that things have been picking up during the last 30 days; not universally or for all states but in certain highly populated and key states such as California and Missouri. Currently Arizona and Texas are ahead of those last two states (based on sightings per population density), but these last two states have stayed at a constant level. If California and Missouri continue to have sightings increase in frequency, then there would be a strong possibility of them overtaking the other two states. Two states that appear to be slowing down in activity, after showing some signs of things picking up a month or two ago, are Pennsylvania and Florida.

Looking at just the MUFON data from the middle of April to early June, you can see a spike in the last 16 day period for the data given below (split into groups by distance of UFO to observer):


Date........501ft-1mile..101-500ft..21-100ft..0-20ft

4/17-5/2..........46.............18...............6............5

5/3-5/17..........47.............15...............3............4

5/18-6/2..........51.............27.............12............8



Another factor to consider in the statistics is the fact that 38% of the top 13 states listed in the spreadsheet below are states with a very low population density. Such a situation can artificially inflate the importance of a state, such as Alaska and Montana (in the 1st and 2nd positions). Also, many of these same states and those of moderately low population density, such as Nevada and Utah for the later, and (again) Montana for the former, have report numbers that differ greatly between those given by NUFORC and those given by MUFON (one of the reasons why I decided to average their numbers). What this means is, that for these states with extremely different reporting numbers, their ranking is more uncertain than with states who's figures agree closely between the two sources.

Considering my prediction for greater sightings of UFOs on 6/17, 6/24, and 7/1 (including the days before and after each of those days) and focusing on the states with the most reliable numbers, UFO hunters would best focus on such states as Arizona, California, and New Mexico. Also, I am making an exception and including Missouri and Texas, because the reason for the greater report numbers from MUFON is due to the fact that MUFON has a greater presence than NUFORC does in both of those states.

Below is shown one of the better places to be to see a UFO in the near future (based on sighting reports from the past 30 days from MUFON report data).

The day after posting the above information, I discovered that NUFORC had just updated their website again on 6/14/12. From that and the MUFON report database information and sightingsreport.com's mapping feature I zeroed in on the dates on and near Sunday 6/10/12 (or a week before things should start to really heat up). What I found is that things are already picking up steam and in an unexpected area of the United States. Below is another map showing sighting concentrations for each state on Saturday and Sunday 6/9 & 6/10/12 using data from both MUFON and NUFORC. Following that is another screenshot of a spreadsheet that includes the breakdown of the states in order of greatest to least concentration of reports (for the recent two day period). One thing that becomes clear is that there is heightened reports in some states, such as South Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan that haven't seen activity like this in quite awhile. Another surprise is the strong showings in both Oregon (moving from 14th to 1st place) and North Carolina (from 22nd to 12th place) and the downward movement of activity in both Texas and California to the bottom of the above average category listings (from 6 & 7th place to 13th & 15th place) and Arizona dropping from above average (4th place) to just average (19th place). Less surprising is the strong showing in the adjoining states of New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Kansas (the later a factor due to the recent activity in and around Kansas City in the far eastern part of the state). Interestingly, Missouri, Michigan, and North Carolina all have identical ratings of 420.9 each, so that they are all technically tied for 10th place on the list.

Although this study suffers a bit from a lack of data, it may be a better aid (than the 84 day study done above) for determining just where UFO sightings will best manifest themselves over the course of the next 2-3 weekends. Happy Hunting!