Gas prices

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   leros003posted 13 years ago

   How high will has prices have to go before we start seeing alternative energy?

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      logan6887posted 13 years agoin reply to this

      I think we will continue to see a rise til 5 dollars. Then a quick dip, followed by a climb to 7 dollars. This is definitely the time to have a hybrid. Cars like mustangs look good, but will end up costing as much as a porche. I can only imagine how much an owner of one of these gas guzzlers has to hear their wallet scream

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2. 0

   idratherbeposted 13 years ago

   I'm sure affordable alternative vehicles could have been around for years, available for most. But, as long as some people are raking in high returns on oil investments it will continue.

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   1. 61

      Eric Newlandposted 13 years agoin reply to this

      People have an incredible misconception about disruptive technology. They assume that just because a technology has been demonstrated as feasible it's ready to roll out to the millions. Not true. Not in the least.
      
      Let's say you want to make all cars burn fuel cells. First of all, fuel cells still have a few kinks in the system. They put out MASSIVE amounts of carbon monoxide, for example.
      
      Once you've got your perfected fuel cell it's time to scale up. This may be the biggest hurdle. This amazing invention that is easy for a bunch of Ph.D.'s to craft with loving care in a lab now has to be created in a giant plant by factory workers who may have nothing more than a high school education, and to the same exacting standards as the lab prototype. Machinery has to be invented and built. Mobs of workers have to be taught quality control measures because each fuel cell has to behave the same; can't have one poop out like wet tinder and the next explode like C4. Some start-up money has to go into this, as you might imagine.
      
      Then you need a venue to sell fuel cells. Likely you need to get big oil on board, because they own the gas stations and it'll be far easier to add on to their facilities than to build your own fuel cell stations and wait for the numbe of fuel cell vehicles to build up to where you stop losing money on the venture.
      
      Oh, right, the vehicles! We forgot there are TWO related industries that need to start mass producing a brand new product! More prototypes, more scale-up, more new machines and plants, and more quality control and safety issues.
      
      And risks! Yep, the money might be out there to make it all happen, but it's not going to move until you can convince investors that you're not going to burn it instead of the fuel cells and that there's at least a chance that they'll get back everything they put in plus more.
      
      Disruptive technology does eventually take off. If it didn't we'd still be driving horse-drawn carriages around and developing all of our photographs in dark rooms. Renewable energy will happen too. Money is being spent on research, and the technologies are taking slow, plodding steps toward market readiness. But to demand, "Why is the Mojave Desert STILL not a gigantic solar array?!" is pretty naive.

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         Eric Newlandposted 13 years agoin reply to this

         Incidentally, I work for an R&D company. I'm a graphic designer, not a scientist, but I've learned enough about the business of inventing stuff that I can say with confidence I'm not talking completely out of my ass.

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