Depression-era Levels of Less Than 1,000 to the Dow?
- pgrundyposted 15 years ago
0I think a sub-1000 Dow may be overstated to sell books. But I also think it will be a good long while before we see the Dow above 11,000 again. I think that over the coming months we could easily see it slip close to 5000 or even slightly below and stay down there for a year or two or more. The reason I think this is that Detroit can't really be saved---not with any amount of bailout money---and we still have no housing bottom in sight. So many industries are tied to Detroit that if it goes down--and I think it will--the Dow will follow.
It's foolhardy to get too carried away with doom and gloom and disaster because the fact is, no one has ever seen this combination of circumstances before. So we really don't know--and I mean we REALLY don't know. But it seems to me that if anything has been consistent it is the fact that we have been consistently underestimating the severity of this crisis. I don't think it's only a crisis of confidence. No, we have serious underlying problems with our financial system, our housing market, and our industrial base, and none of those can be fixed quickly or easily.
I look for lots of volatility in the Dow and in the prices of goods and services. We are very close to a deflationary spiral right now. It's alarming, but what can you do? Ride it out.
- pgrundyposted 15 years ago0
Yes, I think buying now is only for the young and strong of heart. If you have precognitive abilities, this might be a great time to snap up shares of some alternative-energy company or some other vital element of whatever will come next, but who can guess what that might be? Still, if you COULD guess, you could find yourself in the same position as people who bought Microsoft when it was young and IBM was turning their nose up at Gates and Jobs. I think changes of that magnitude are in the air.
But I sure don't know what to buy! If I did, I guess I wouldn't be goofing off here! LOL! - pgrundyposted 15 years ago0
Hey cool! You have a psychic cap!
I think you should apply for a job on Obama's team with one of those kinds of caps on hand--it couldn't hurt!
Seriously, I think you are right. It will be a long low, with a scary inflationary period after and a huge national debt. But anything could happen. I'd say in general all bets are off at this point.
I was kind of joking about being done with stocks. I have no money for stocks. I'm lucky to be able to buy groceries and heat this place. I'm from Malaysia and we can already feel the "heat" from this global recession. Our central bank predicts that it's going to hit us hard in early 2009. I've lost quite a large amount of money in the stock market over the last few months (enough to last me for 6 months without pay). But from the looks of it, things will become worse...slowly. Better save up all the money now.
Tuesday December 9th - Ended down....
The Indian government just announced a $4 billion "stimulus package."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= … refer=home
Not that you need it.......
Amen to that TMG
That said, I fully expect a Xmas/New Year rally (or rather dead cat bounce) before markets start crashing further. Bounce into the area of 10-11K in Dow, 1100 in S&P, and 1900-2000 in NASDAQ composite.
Don't take my word for it, though - we all know surprises on the downside are likely in bear market
I don't play those games anymore anyway, but sometimes it is interesting to watch...Ralph, I am ready to bet it will not be higher in 5-10 years, providing it will exist at all in a form comparable to nowadays
Right. Who in their right mind would invest in American industry now? I got my 401K pamphlet from my new job, and almost all the mutual funds show first year losses of between 28 and 51%--and and that's looking at the bright side. I'm putting my money under my mattress! lol!
Come on Mark, normal minor correction after breakout on minor technical resistance level. Short term trend is up
Ummm, why not? If it goes above Monday high on Dow/today's high on Nasdaq, it will rally into the Xmas and possibly new year - this is the most probable path, even taking bear market into consideration
LOL I won't tell you the exact number Mark, I am not a guru
I made my forecast earlier in this thread, and this is as exact as I can get - providing it manages above this week high
lol
It is not going to tank properly until Citi's toxic debts come out. I am going with $2 trillion. Next step will be Ukraine going properly broke. Followed by Romania, Bulgaria, Pakistan and India. This will cause the Euro-zone banks to be in the same position as Wall Street, because they are heavily exposed. I understand Switzerland is exposed by 50% GDP, and Austria 85%.....
Ecuador already defaulted on its government issued bonds. Looking forward to Dec 15th.
Gonna buy myself a farm
Old MKnowles had a farm...
You mean instead of Adsense? I am not really replacing Adsense, I am leaving this infrastructure intact for now, and mostly working on different models like buying traffic and relaying it to ebay and such. Adsense still cranks out some money, in fact more than half of my total current internet income, and I don't have any plans to abolish it - I am amending and diversifying
No, I meant Yieldbuild.
Adsense is a little sloooow at the moment on my sites.
iPhone crap is selling well though
I actually got some traffic pickup and sales on handbags stuff recently, so it might be not a lost case.
So you meant Yieldbuild! Well, it did not make wonders on my main site - but it definitely did not make things worse. When I look at eCPM, I see it now at pretty much the same level as when I started with yieldbuild, with the bottom being somewhere in between - so currently trend is up, albeit it is hardly identifiable
I got a huge effect however on my Russian site, mainly because of ad placement optimization. I am talking the order of 10 here, so it was definitely worth itLOL you don't need a Russian site for that, just any site where you have more than 3 options for adsense placement
As for real estate - let's bring this offline, I don't think this is the proper place to discuss itLOL It was just a poor attempt to promote yet another condescending hub
Oh.
Judging from his comments in the forums, I wouldn't waste my time looking at his hubs
LOL
The last 20 years bubble will send to DOW to 1,000. Obama is just the icing on the cake.
- pgrundyposted 15 years ago0
In 1989 the DOW was at 775. I think the market could definitely fall A LOT more.
That is an interesting interview, especially the part where he says that he'd get less flack if they'd named the book, "A Treatise on the Declining Equity Risk Premium." I haven't read the DOW 36,000 book, but it's interesting that he wrote it in 1999, just as the last of the regulatory structures put in place during the Depression (to control and isolate investment banks and speculators) were being kicked out and the whole financial industry starting mainlining leverage steroids.
In 1999, banks, investment firms, and insurance companies were finally able to jump into one bed again, and lots of people who worked in that industry were bullish to delusional degrees. But in the interview he denies that that frenzied optimism had anything to do with his own 36,000 prediction--even though he was a Merrill Lynch stock broker.
I don't know, without actually reading the book, I gotta say that sounds weak to me.
I do wish I could buy some GE stock though. $7? Get outta town!
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