Global Warming in Australia to Be Severe

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   wildernessposted 6 years ago

   Recent studies indicate that even if the Paris Accords are successful, Sydney may find itself with temperatures of 50 degrees (122F). 
   "Major Australian cities, such as Sydney and Melbourne, may experience unprecedented temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius under 2 degrees of global warming."
   
   https://au.news.yahoo.com/qld/a/3733642 … te-change/ 
   
   The full article by Sophie Lewis, respected researcher, may be found at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 … 65793/full
   
   Meanwhile, records indicate high temperatures somewhat less:
   https://au.news.yahoo.com/qld/a/3733642 … te-change/ shows the highest temperature since 2009 to be 31 (88F)
   
   http://www.australia.com/en/facts/weath … ather.html shows maximum temps in summer to be 26.3 (80F)
   
   https://weather-and-climate.com/average … ,Australia says the maximum summer time is about 25 (77F)
   
   So a global increase of less than 2 degrees (3F) will give rise to temperatures in Sydney of 50 degrees (122F), an increase of 24 degrees (42F).  From current highs of about 80 degrees to 122 (F).
   
   Is it any wonder that some people question Global warming "researchers"?

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   1. 81

      jackclee lmposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      This number is crazy. It is said by reputable climate scientists the web bulb temperature of 35 degrees C is the maximum that people (humans can survive) above that for expended periods of 6 hours, most people will die. In 2017, we have not come close to that upper bound. The average temperature will vary in different parts of the world of course due to local conditions. In Africa and the Far East, temperature gets hotter along coasts and river beds.

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      1. 96

         wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         35 degrees?  That's 95F.  We saw day after day of 100+ temperatures this summer, and at that temperature for most of the day every time.  Construction workers carried on, sports continued, nothing stopped because people were dying from the heat.
         
         If that isn't enough, check daily temperatures for, say, Phoenix, Az.

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         1. 81

            jackclee lmposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            The 35 degrees C is "wet bulb" temperature. It is related to the humidity index. For Arizona, 110 F degree dry heat is fine. In Far East and part of Central Africa, 35 degrees C sustained over a 6 hour period, without AC would kill. The human body requires perspiration to cool the body. When the temp/humidity is too high for sustained period, the body cannot cool it self.

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            1. 96

               wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

               Ah.  Yes, and we (and Phoenix) are very dry.
               
               But when I lived in Va., humidity was quite often in the 90% range with temperatures approaching 100.  The factory had no AC, but no one died from heat stroke in the 22 years I worked there.  No one in the 50's had AC, but people in Louisiana, Alabama, Southern Texas, Florida, etc. were not dropping like flies; "most" of the people did not die from the heat.
               
               I'm not swallowing it.

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               1. 81

                  jackclee lmposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                  Here is detail of human limitations - take it for what it is worth...
                  https://www.livescience.com/34128-limit … vival.html

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                  1. 96

                     wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                     We pass out at over 15,000', according to the article.  Yet the city of La Rinconada, Peru, is at nearly 17,000 feet and Wikipedia lists 9 more at 14,900 or more.  My sister, in Wisconsin, is comfortable in shirt sleeves in temperatures that I'm flirting with hypothermia if I stay in it long term, while she can't hardly move around outside when she visits here in the summer.
                     
                     Which is the point; human physical adaptability is tremendous, and acclimatization and long term location allows at least semi-comfortable living where others would perish.

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                     1. 81

                        jackclee lmposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                        I agree about himan adaptation. I believe the spec. are for the average population. Of course there are always extreme people who can survive in extra ordinary conditions. In order for a species to survive, the majority of the population needs to survive...to reproduce...

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                        1. 96

                           wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                           Interestingly, I watched a PBS special on genetics where they said the people of Tibet not only have traces of genes from a particular "subhuman" species (think Neanderthal of the East) but other genetic adaptions that allow living with very low oxygen levels.  Of course natives of Africa can withstand far more sunlight than can Europeans or Alaska natives.  We find such things all over the world - evolution in action that has benefited local people to give a better chance of reproducing.

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         2. 87

            Marisa Wrightposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            "Wet bulb" means 100% humidity.   When there is 100% humidity, the human body can't cool down by sweating.  That's why when it gets to 35 degrees "wet bulb", it's deadly.
            
            http://web.science.unsw.edu.au/~stevens … tbulb.html
            
            You'll see from that article that it's a scientific definition and  totally different measure from 35 degrees with lower humidity.

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      2. 87

         Marisa Wrightposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         The number is not crazy because it is referring to the future - 2100, I believe. 
         
         But just to be clear, it doesn't matter what the "average" temperature is.   What matters is what the "extreme" is.   My conversation with Wilderness is a case in point - the graphs he's been looking at are showing "average" maximum temperatures, but I lived in Sydney for 30 years and I know it gets over 30 degrees regularly.    It may only be for a few weeks in the year, but it does happen.
         
         Also read my post about what "wet bulb" means. You need to understand what it is, first.    There are already thousands of places, all over the world, where it's over 35 degrees (NOT wet bulb) for several hours every day - people don't drop dead because it's not 100% humidity.
         
         Although to be fair, in Australia we do have a few hundred deaths from heat stress every summer, mainly in the elderly.

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2. 87

   Marisa Wrightposted 6 years ago

   Temperatures in Sydney and Melbourne can already reach 40-45 degrees in summer.  Fortunately it's only for a few days a year, but the study is not saying we'll experience 50 degrees all the time - just at peak times (the same times we currently get 40 degrees).
   
   Your weather links refer to AVERAGE temperatures and give an AVERAGE temperature range - i.e., what the weather is like most of the time.  And of course, they are designed for holidaymakers so they don't want to mention the short periods of the year when temperatures are extreme. 
   
   So the increase is 5 degrees, not 24 degrees.
   
   I've lived in both cities and I loathe the heat, so I can assure you that I REALLY notice the days when it gets over 35 degrees.

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   1. 96

      wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      The graph axis were plainly marked both average and maximum temperatures.  But I will say I was surprised it didn't get above the 31 given - it's been my impression that it got hotter than that.  Of course, my impression is also tainted with stories from the interior, so it isn't worth much.  I'm aware of that, which is why I went looking.

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3. 87

   Marisa Wrightposted 6 years ago

   Well I can attest to the fact that they are wrong.
   
   I think the graph is showing mean averages, not maximums.
   
   Note the difference on this graph here, which is for Melbourne:
   
   http://www.eldersweather.com.au/climate … p;lc=86071
   
   and this one for Sydney
   
   http://www.eldersweather.com.au/climate.jsp
   
   They show the mean average temp in the first graph, which shows similar figures to the one you had - but the second graph shows actual maximums.

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   1. 96

      wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      Well, I found a couple of references to record highs, and they were more than 30 degrees.  But they had to go back 50 years to find those maximums!
      
      The last graph seems more interesting, at least to me.  The average number of days over 40 degrees in Jan. is less than one, but it is not zero.  Every couple of years the city sees a day or two over 40.  And, on the average, every January sees nearly 8 days over 30 degrees.  That doesn't jibe with my graphs.  Maybe they're using the average high temps over a month, which seems what your third graph shows, and which matches pretty close.

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      1. 87

         Marisa Wrightposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         I agree the numbers are confusing.  All I can say is that the main reason I decided not to settle back in Sydney is that I can't cope with the humid heat - when it gets over 29 degrees, I can't function.   It didn't bug me so much when I was working in air-conditioning all day, but once I left office work (about ten years ago), I found that I was stuck indoors too often over the summer months.
         
         I've been in Melbourne over a year now, and they have very hot days sometimes - we have had one 40 degree day - but it's not humid so I don't find it such a problem.  Also it doesn't stay hot for long.

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            Randy Godwinposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            I've worked outside in 100+ degree heat on many occasions when I was younger. High humidity is normal here in south Georgia.

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            1. 96

               wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

               Lived and worked in Brunswick for a while.  Yeah, it's humid, and a ways inland even hotter and still humid.

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         2. 96

            wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            When I moved to Virginia (hot and humid) I was only 22 and it wasn't so bad.  But the older I got the worse it got, even after years of living there.

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            1. 87

               Marisa Wrightposted 6 years agoin reply to this

               Yes, I'm sure it's age making me more intolerant too!

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   2. 0

      promisemposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      I prefer to believe NASA, expert climatologists and 31 international science organizations. As NASA explains about the uneven rise in temperatures:
      
      "Since the year 2000, land temperature changes are 50 percent greater in the United States than ocean temperature changes; two to three times greater in Eurasia; and three to four times greater in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula. Warming of the ocean surface has been largest over the Arctic Ocean, second largest over the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans, and third largest over most of the Atlantic Ocean."

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