Does Global Warming or Climate Change Really Exist?
I'd like a citation on that, please, but even if it is true, I'm sure the millions they get from oil companies more than makes up the difference.
The Himalayan glacier thing was a mistake that has been corrected.
The scientists involved in so-called "ClimateGate" have been exonerated of scientific wrongdoing by at least six independent investigations. The most they're guilty of is making bitchy remarks about their colleagues, and that, though it hardly reflects well on their characters, is not a crime.
As for the IPCC itself, the 2007 report is well known to be outdated and inaccurate. The problem is, it's mostly outdated and inaccurate in the direction of dramatically under-estimating the speed and extent of climate impacts. Check out the plot of observed Arctic ice loss vs IPCC models that I posted earlier for just one example:
http://hubpages.com/forum/topic/86558#post1859648
As for volcanoes, I've addressed them several times already in this thread in my conversation with wilderness:
http://hubpages.com/forum/topic/86558#post1856530
http://hubpages.com/forum/topic/86558#post1856781
If you want to give me something more substantive to work with than "maybe you should look at volcanoes", I'll be happy to discuss your arguments.Again, the IPCC admitted to and corrected the mistake about the glaciers. Yes, it should have been investigated more closely before getting into the report in the first place, but one mistake does not invalidate the report as a whole.
What does invalidate it is the ~five years of date that has been collected since, which overwhelmingly (at a rate of 20 to 1, according to one recent survey of the scientific literature) shows that the impacts of global warming are happening faster and stronger than the IPCC predicted.
"They use one set of data to show how temperatures used to be, but say that the same data doesn't work today"
I assume you're referring to the divergence in tree ring data involved in the "hide the decline" non-scandal. To the best of my knowledge, scientists do not know why tree ring data from the Northern and Southern latitudes suddenly diverged after centuries of close correlation, but there are several different theories, the problem remains under active study, and it is openly discussed both in scientific literature relating to climate change and the IPCC report itself. The scientists used the Southern data that correlated more closely with observations while trying to figure out why the Northern tree rings diverged. I really don't see what the problem is.
"Over the last decade we have discovered a lot of active undersea volcanoes under the arctic ice cap. I haven't been able to find any published research on them, which is unfortunate."
Probably because you were Googling Arctic and they're actually Antarctic.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 … 104755.htm
I haven't seen any estimates on their strength, but given that there's only 12 of them (and it sounds like only 7 are active), they'd have to be pretty darn powerful to make a dent in the difference between human and volcanic emissions. Remember, we'd need the equivalent of 11,200 more Kīlaueas or 3500 more Mount St Helens annually.
"What is truly unfortunate is the lack of study that goes into all the possible contributors to global warming."
Like what? Wilderness asked earlier about waste heat and over-harvesting of fish and whales and I hope I was able to provide a satisfactory answer to both. If I know something about the research being done into a particular possible contributor to global warming that you think is inadequately studied, I'll be happy to give you a rundown of it, and if I don't, then I'll enjoy the opportunity to learn something new.
Climate science fascinates me.
As Ralph and melpor said, the current global warming/climate change is a combination of natural and man-made factors, with man-made factors accounting for the majority of the warming in the last ~30 years and natural factors being more significant for the warming in the first part of the 20th century.
Here is a useful graphic explaining some of the ways we know humans are primarily responsible for the current warming:
If you have any questions about any of the points, I'll be happy to try and explain them."What you are actually saying is that man provides some of the greenhouse gases (irrefutable) and therefore is responsible for the majority of global warming (does not follow at all)."
It follows very clearly. The Earth's natural carbon cycle is pretty well balanced and has been for thousands of years. As a result, the issue isn't the total amount of CO2 being released by all natural and man-made processes, it's the extra that can't be reabsorbed by the ocean, plants, soil, etc. Here's a chart (a couple years old, unfortunately) showing the approximate stats:
As you can see, at this point the natural carbon cycle is still able to absorb approximately 40% of human emissions, so even today only about 18 billion tons of the ~30 billion tons that humans emit annually are actually causing warming. Unfortunately, several of the best carbon sinks, including the oceans and the Amazon rainforest, are showing signs of saturation, so we may soon have to bear the full brunt of our own excesses.
"Greenhouse gases cause warming. Volcanoes produce greenhouse gases that are identifiable as non-fossil fuels. Therefore volcanoes are responsible for most of the effect by using the same reasoning."
The effect of volcanoes is complicated. In the short term, they actually cause cooling because of the large amounts of aerosols they spew out. Concerning their contribution to atmospheric CO2, however, the important thing to know is that human activities add about ~30 billion tons of CO2 per year to the atmosphere and oceans, whereas volcanic activity has ranged from about 65 to about 319 million tons in recent years.
I am not positive, but I believe volcanic emissions are accounted for in the above carbon cycle chart under "Vegetation and Land." Even if they're not, they're a pretty small percentage of the "extra" 18 billion tons that's causing the trouble.
"We can't even say for certain that CO2 is the primary cause, let alone that the portion caused by man is primary."
We can't say for certain that gravity exists, either, but the evidence certainly points in that direction!"No, the evidence points to volcanoes. At least as long as you ignore or falsify all other evidence that doesn't agree."
Um, no. Humans produce anywhere from about 100 to more than 400 times the CO2 of current volcanic activity. You'd need about 11,200 more Kīlaueas or 3500 more Mount St Helens annually to equal the CO2 emissions of humans.
"Have you ever seen figures for how much heat mankind adds? Straight energy, in the form of heat? Light bulbs, Nuclear plants, brake shoes slowing a car, air resistance to a plane, heat from furnaces and air conditioners, etc. etc. etc? I know I haven't."
I have, in fact.
It's called waste heat and it is certainly does have a local (urban heat islands, etc.) and sometimes even regional effect, but it is believed to account for only about 1% of anthropogenic forcing globally. Global forcing from waste heat was 0.028 W/m2 in 2005, while total anthropogenic forcing was about 2.9 W/m2 and net anthropogenic forcing (because we also release a lot of aerosols, which have a cooling effect) was around 1.6 W/m2.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2 … 6465.shtml
http://www.skepticalscience.com/waste-h … rming.html
"Have you ever seen figures for how much CO2 is 'lost' from decimating fish and whale populations? I haven't - just CO2 'gained' from decimating rain forests. Why is that? Because it would mean man hasn't added as much CO2 as the "researchers" want to see?"
Actually, whales and large fish play a major role in carbon sequestration, so decimating fish and whale populations "gained" CO2, it didn't "lose" it.
http://www.physorg.com/news202985104.html
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1 … cycle.html
"The point is not that these figures may be (and almost certainly are) low compared to increased heat from the CO2 man puts into the air, it is that no one knows. No one cares. No one checks."
Clearly not true.
"The constant mantra is to stop burning oil, but we could ruin our economies and kill billions of people doing just that only to find that it hasn't helped at all."
In the unlikely event that it turns out burning fossil fuels is NOT causing global warming, there are still tremendous benefits to be gained from dramatically reducing our reliance on them. Mining/drilling for coal, oil, natural gas, etc are among the most environmentally destructive activities on the planet, and burning them releases many other pollutants that cause or contribute to the deaths of millions of people every year. In fact, an economics study released just last month concluded that coal in particular causes more economic damage than it does good.
Original study: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi= … 101.5.1649
Layman friendly discussion of study: http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/10/1 … n-damages/
"Shoot, we could stop burning oil and producing those greenhouse gasses and find that they were the only thing keeping us out of an ice age. We just don't know."
I actually consider this to be a more likely possibility than finding out that fossil fuels and other human activities aren't the primary cause of global warming, but I would argue if it does turn out to be true, at least we know what we have to do!
"Why don't we get 1000 people together from 50 nations to find an answer? People that don't own stock in oil countries or manufacture solar panels. People that aren't greenies but don't ride around in personal jets either. People that are willing to do a job, and do it right without worrying about what answer is wanted? Why is that so impossible?"
I think scientists are doing a much better job of exploring every possible explanation than you think.
- RTalloniposted 13 years ago
0 "Unfortunately, the vast majority of errors have erred on the side of Global Warming likelihood. In other words, the research was NOT unbiased."
You've got that backwards, too. Although there have been a couple high profile errors in the other direction (most notably the Himalayan glaciers thing), the vast majority of studies are finding that climate change is happening faster than previously believed and producing impacts that are more severe than expected.
To name just one example, as recently as the 2007 IPCC report (the most recent one) many scientists thought the Arctic wouldn't be ice-free in summer until 2100. After the death spiral of the last five years, it's now more likely that it will be ice-free in summer by the 2020s or 30s. This graph models the observed Arctic ice loss (red line) against the 2007 predictions of the IPCC:
You play fallout to much
Good for you, it's a wonderful game- Always happy to promote the series, Fallout 3 is the best by far.
"Earth can recover from some, but where does one draw the line? How can we tell when Mother Nature is telling us -- "Enough is enough!"
http://www.theonion.com/articles/planet … are,20639/
"Why Greenland called what it is?"
For the same reason real estate ads describe houses that are practically falling down around their owners' heads as "needing a little TLC." It was mainly propaganda.
Greenland was greener during that period, but not to the degree that many people believe, and, more importantly for our present situation, most of the other regions affected by the so-called Medieval Warm Period saw whole civilizations collapse due to extreme drought. Europe was the only region that saw a net positive, and even that is questionable given that it led to a population boom that was followed by famine and plague when the warm years went away.Greenland was actually named Greenland to confuse enemies who were coming/trying to invade them. Sly bastards, eh?
- alexsaez1983posted 13 years ago0
No uncontested objective summary exists. Whether or not you agree with the people contesting the objectivity of the IPCC is up to you. I posted about 20 links in one of the threads above that should help you make up your mind.
It's an estimate based on our understanding of the standard solar model.
There is no carbon-temperature ratio. It's something you made up out of ignorance or in an attempt to make climate scientists look ridiculous, so it doesn't much matter how much you increase or decrease it.
"The carbon levels were at the same as 100 million years ago when the temperature was 3-7 degrees lower."
??? The mid-Cretaceous had major volcanic activity and some of the warmest average temperatures in Earth's history.
Here, just to show how ridiculous it is, I made a chart. The data is only taken every 50 million years, but it shows the point pretty strongly. I weighted CO2 levels to equate 100ppm to 1 degree C, which is what the current 'consensus' claims.
500 million years ago the temperature was +6 degrees. Carbon was 5000 ppm. 50 million years ago the temperature was +6 degrees. Carbon was about 800 ppm. 200 million years ago the temperature was where it is now, and carbon was between 1200 and 2000 ppm(we are at 375 ish)
If this consensus were true, those two lines should follow each other very closely. There is vitually 0% correlation.You're mistaking climate for weather - a very common error. Global warming does not mean that we will never again register a record low temperature (in fact, if the Gulf Stream shuts down - a real possibility - global warming will paradoxically result in a lot of them in some regions), it just means the statistical probability of setting a record high temperature is much greater.
And this is in fact exactly what we see. Here is a useful graph of the ratio of record high to record low temperatures in the US since the 50's:
Source: http://www2.ucar.edu/news/1036/record-h … -across-us
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