Over history the economy goes through what we call "cycles". These cycles consist of highs and lows, mainly beginning with a noticeable increase in the economy, then all of a sudden falling to a noticeable decrease in the economy. What we're going through now is quite a big drop in the economy, because of the immense amount of growth we're having in the economy.
If the past does really give hints on the future, then yes we are in the middle of an economic recovery, or relatively close to it at least. (Hopefully.)
From what I have heard on the news, it sounds like experts are cautiously optimistic, yet they are predicting that unemployment rates will remain high until after the election. I interpret this information to mean we will continue to see wild swings with only a small overall rise in the economy.
I don't think so yet. It is no secret that the media is able to sway public view but there are some elements that are left out of the numbers. For example, the number of people who have exhausted their unemployment and still have no job. The unemployment reports are based on the number of people on unemployment and who apply - those who have fallen out of the system are not included.
People are still loosing their homes and jobs are still falling off. Stores are closing corporations are downsizing and some that are still strong are dropping employees to pick up temporary people thus avoiding benefit expenses. So I feel we are still in the slump.
What I will project is that more and more people are going to start projects, services and businesses of their own. After all the foundation of our enterprise system was founded on the small business. I sincerely hope it improves but feel it will take a long time before it rebounds again.
I agree with Brian 2ck. The media is good at forming public opinion and moving people to act. I am convinced that we have not seen the end of the recession and may see a deteriorating economic environment. U.S. Household's net worth fell $2.4 trillion to $57.4 trillion from the second to the third quarter in 2010.
The job picture doesn't tell us how many people are unemployed because they cannot find a job after their benefits were exhausted.
Historically, housing has been the driver of recoveries, but an excess supply of homes has held back construction and price recovery. Many economists expect the housing market will not return to full health until 2016.
Many corporations are stacking up cash and not investing in growth. Non-financial companies held $2.5 trillion at the end of 2010.
The uncertainty of foreign markets is a worry to our international corps and to banks.
The recession prompted many comapanies to use the time to develop technology that would eliminate jobs, and many did. Ford Motor Company is an example.
My best guess is we are in a fragile economy where bad news could throw us back into a recession. People still are not spending the kind of money that will restore the GDP to 3.5 %.
I beleive we are. But it will be a very slow process to a full recovery.
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