X Factor 2009 (Season 6) Odds With 8 Remaining
Joe McElderry Pimped as Finalist, Olly Murs the New Dark Horse
With 33% of the 12 semifinalists now gone in X Factor 2009, the competition has taken quite a few turns and produced a different picture in terms of betting odds compared to just four weeks ago. With the booting of Rachel from the competition, my top picks of Danyl Johnson and Jamie Archer continue to be depimped, and Joe McElderry and Olly Murs are getting the bulk of the pimping from the judges' table. In terms of betting odds, Olly Murs has taken the lead now at about 2.5 to 1 and as low as 2 to 1 with some books. Joe is close behind at between 2. 5 to 1 and 3 to 1. The one that personally makes me happy is Olly's surge, as I think Olly is one of the biggest nice surprises I have ever seen in any of these reality TV competitions.
In my article announcing Danyl Johnson as the favorite, I did not have the benefit of seeing him almost melt down due to the nasty one-sided rumors he has had to face over the last two or three weeks. His performance of Aerosmith's "Don't Wanna Miss a Thing" this week, which was Rock Week, was still fairly good. But it was clearly not his best, and the emotion he has displayed before was replaced by nervousness. Danyl did not appear to be fully into the performance, so it came off a bit unnatural.
I think the writing is not quite on the wall yet, but it seems that Danyl, for whatever reason, is just not meant to be this season's champion. He has been beat down and broken by personal attacks. For whatever reason, Danyl has become this season's bad guy. Earlier this year, Danny Gokey was labelled as the bad guy in American Idol and ended up finishing third despite being a favorite to make the finals. The same fate is likely to be visited upon Danyl.
My other favorite, Jamie Archer, must do something to threaten judge Louis Walsh, who has to be the biggest joke of a judge I've ever seen on any reality TV show. Louis blasts Jamie now on a weekly basis while praising the hopelessly talented John and Edward. I don't know if the producers are just telling Louis to play the part of the complete idiot or if Louis really is a complete idiot. But it's clear that no one should listen to anything Louis Walsh says. He, or at least his persona on the show, has no credibility when it comes to judging talent. The truth is, Jamie and Olly appear to be the most versatile contestants by a wide margin, but Olly gets credit while Jamie gets blasted for no apparent reason other than popularity considerations.
At any rate, Jamie and Danyl have fallen dramatically from their odds to win among bettors over the course of the live shows. Danyl is now about 6 to 1 to win, and Jamie is around 12 to 1 on average. At this point, Stacey Solomon and Lucie Jones are both about 5 to 1 to win. The other contestants , like John and Edward, are longshots and don't stand much of a chance of winning.
I am American and don't vote on X Factor, but I also stopped voting on American Idol because I've seen both of these shows as biased towards vanilla pop singers and pop images, and this seems to be what the judges also like to push. This season, the benefactor of this bias is Joe McElderry. Joe is a solid technical singer in terms of hitting notes, but an honest set of judges would have had no choice but to criticize his rather "rockless" rock performance of Journey's "Don't Stop Believing."
The judges happily raved over this watered-down pop version even though they MUST KNOW it was too weak to be considered as a legit rock performance. It sounded exactly like I expected - a pop singer trying to rock out. The dishonest pimping on this show is literally a staple of the show, and it's why there's no credibility to any judge comments. Just enjoy the contest and let the chips fall where they may.