X Factor 2009 (Season 6) Odds With 9 Remaining
Joe McElderry Jumps To Betting-Odds Favorite
Following the latest elimination on X Factor 2009, where Danyl Johnson was supposedly in the Bottom 2, Joe McElderry has emerged as the favorite in betting to win outright on this season of X Factor. Johnson hangs on as the second favorite among bettors by a slim margin over Olly Murs. The two top females are Lucie Jones and Stacey Solomon. However, the average voting suggests that Olly, Lucie, and Stacey are all about 5 to 1 to win. Joe has bumped up to 3 to 1 odds, and Danyl is sitting at about 4 to 1. The only other contestant showing any real chance of winning is Jamie Archer, who is pegging at about 8 to 1. Lloyd Daniels, Rachel Adedeji, and the perenially bad singers John and Edward are relegated to major longshots in the competition.
As I stated in my previous article on Danyl Johnson, I still think he is the favorite. I know that Cowell is not above pulling tricks on elimination nights, so it's hard to say what Danyl's having placed in the Bottom 2 so early really means. Some past winners, such as last year's Alexandra Burke or American Idol's Fantasia, have definitely had sporadic voting tendencies and still gone on to win. But some people think Danyl is cocky, which sounds like nothing but speculation to me, and that may affect his ability to garner enough votes to go on to victory.
In my article last week on betting odds, I stated that Joe McElderry was not the type of singer that tends to win these contests. Just because he is technically good at hitting notes does not mean he has a unique style. It usually sounds like choir practice when he sings instead of a high-level artistic performance. There is virtually no chance Joe could win on American Idol because uniqueness or emotion take precedent over academically technical factors. However, he did do better this week at reining in all the unnecessary vibrato and at least showed signs of a stage personality and personal style. He even looked comfortable and natural doing his little dance moves, and it was more like someone trying to entertain than just simply give a vocal exhibition.
My personal favorite is still Jamie Archer, and it gets more apparent every week that every judge except Simon is trying to sink him, albeit a bit slowly. He is the most versatile singer but will probably not win since rockers hardly ever do. However, it's hard to say how judge comments affect the voting public. They may affect short-term betting odds more than votes, as it is fairly certain that voters don't generally rely on judge comments.
After all, why are John and Edward still in X Factor? No one could argue that they sing well, and they don't do the choreography. And even if choreography and doing silly dance moves do mean something, they are quite consistently out of sync with each other. It's like Sanjaya on American Idol. They just hang on while several better acts get booted. However, I think everyone knows they have no chance of winning.
Joe seems to be the talk as far as pleasant surprises. But having said that I think his technical singing is not enough, I can say that Olly Murs is the biggest surprise for me since the live shows started. He has far more versatility than I expected. I even wrote an article complaining that Treyc Cohen should have been picked over Olly. I take that back. Olly may not sound as pretty, but he is like a jack of all trades with his performances. Just tell him what to sing, and he goes out there and pulls it off like a pro. I am impressed enough to say that Olly may be a big spoiler in the competition.
Stacey has almost no chance of winning at this point. Olly has now passed her, so she is going in the wrong direction. Stacey finally tried to mix it up a little this week by showing a few power notes, and they were as bad as any reasonable observer would have expected. She does not have the power to credibly sing anything but soft ballads, and this was already apparent to anyone who actually watches with a keen eye. She is now eye candy as far as the contest goes and has virtually no shot of winning. Now, does that mean she can't be a singer? No. Commercially, she's a doll and may do something well after the contest. But lack of versatility will keep her from winning. On a side note, although she does have a cute personality, it's a bit loopy. And loopy people don't win these contests.
Although I have also been hard on Lucie, I actually give her big props for her version of "My Funny Valentine." While not the most unique version I have heard, it was beautiful and emotional and exactly what she needed to do. However, the fact that Olly passed her up in betting odds suggests that she has been relegated to the wannabe diva of this season. Lucie can probably still turn it around and give herself a small chance of winning if she keeps up what she did during Big Band Week. But she will likely go right back to a more modern diva song and fail to live up to or personalize the original.
One thing to note is that these betting odds are very sporadic. Lucie started out as the favorite before the first live show. It has now changed every single week. So looking at these odds is like looking at a small snapshot in time. They very well may change again next week. But based on what I know of these shows, I would say that Danyl Johnson is the favorite but Olly could pull a major surprise if he continues to show the diversity he has been showing so far in this competition.