Something interesting! Negative partisanship is the main issue.

1. 87

   tsmogposted 8 months ago

   New research suggests that concerns about threats to democracy match the economy and immigration as issues shaping the 2024 election by Ipsos (Mar 1, 2024)
   https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/new-researc … es-shaping
   
   Setting it up . . .
   
   "In this study, Ipsos experimented with three different sets of options in response to our standard “main issue” question. These options included Sample A/Standard/Standard which used our normal list of issues, Sample B/Democracy/Democracy which included a slightly condensed list of issues from Sample A/Standard and the item “political extremism and threats to democracy”, and Sample C/Political/Political which included a similar condensed list of issue and the items “Joe Biden and woke Democrats” and “Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans.”
   
   [Edit: After publishing I took note the graphic is smaller than I imagined it would be. Oops! Right click on the image and open in a new tab or go to the article.]
   
   
   
   "Washington DC, March 1, 2024 — New Ipsos research finds that when presented with explicitly political options, two in five Americans say the main issue facing the country is the other side, a concept referred to as negative partisanship. This finding suggests that, for a significant portion of Americans, the election is more about achieving political victory than about a set of issue areas. Many conventional “main issue” survey questions appear to be missing this phenomenon which potentially explains strong Democratic performance in off-cycle elections, even as the public gives Democrats weak marks on the ‘typical’ main issues of the economy or immigration."
   
   Be sure to check out Ipsos's Detailed Findings a relatively short read after the graphic.
   
   PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY for the Ipsos polling study.
   https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/fil … opline.pdf
   
   Does this poll/study offer new insight on the pulse of the voters?
   
   Do you think the Trump & Biden campaign strategists paid attention to it?
   
   Should they?
   
   Thoughts

   replyreport
2. 93

   Nathanvilleposted 8 months ago

   I studied the data in both links, but in not living in America it’s difficult to appreciate the nuances of how American voters are currently feeling and thinking (“the pulse of the voters”); so I can’t make any useful contribution to this forum on the two questions you ask.
   
   But out of curiosity, I did make a direct comparison with your IPSOS ‘Public Opinion Poll’ and the latest YouGov Tracker (updated 1st April); and compiled both sets of data into a spreadsheet for easier comparison (screen dump below).
   
   Some of the obvious observations from the two sets of data is that:-
   
   •    In the UK both the Economy and the NHS (the two highest Issues of Concerns in the UK), are of major concerns to voters across all political parties.
   
   •    Immigration is of major concern to ONLY Conservative voters in the UK (63%), which is almost double the concern of even the Republican voters in the USA (33%).
   
   •    Some of the other ‘issues’ when UK & USA are compared gives rise to some surprising results e.g. Defence & Security (which included terrorism) at 19% is more of a concern in the UK than the USA, even when you add Defence (6%) and Terrorism (4%) together for the USA data (10%).
   
   •    But other comparisons are no surprise e.g. Environment (climate change etc.) is a much bigger voting issue in the UK than in the USA.
   
   •    What does surprise me, following our recent conversion on the subject, is that ‘Housing’ doesn’t seem to be a major voting issue; and nothing on ‘Tax’, considering Americans always seem to be bemoaning about taxes on these forums?
   
   •    And of course, thinks like inequality/discrimination, morality and Abortion don’t even appear on the YouGov Tracker because they are not major voting issues in the UK.
   
   https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/tra … he-country
   
   

   replyreport
   1. 93

      Nathanvilleposted 8 months agoin reply to this

      Hot Off the Press – Just released late last night:-
      
      https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ … -400-seats
      
      Directly relevant to ‘Major Issues’ voting come the General Election in the UK later this year, is the latest Opinion poll by YouGov which strongly indicates that many Conservative Ministers in Government are at high risk of losing their seats in the General Election later this year; including the following:-
      
      •    Rishi Sunak PM – Current Prime Minister
      
      •    Jeremy Hunt MP -  Currently Chancellor of the Exchequer
      
      •    Jacob Rees-Mogg MP – Currently in the Government as Minister for Business, Energy an Industry.
      
      •    Michelle Gove MP – Currently in Government as Minister for ‘Levelling UP’.  A new Government Department created by Boris Johnson when he was Prime Minister to pour extra Government spending into Labour Safe seats in Northern England, as a way of buying votes:  It worked for the 2019 General Election e.g. the Conservatives won a lot of Labour Safe seats in the North during that Election; but it’s not working this time.
      
      •    Penny Mordaunt – MP currently campaigning within the Conservative Party to become the next Conservative Party leader when the Conservative Party kick Rishi Sunak out of Office for losing the next General Election.
      
      https://youtu.be/NAJGweYuA4M
      
      This Opinion Poll comes in spite of the fact that just a few weeks ago the Conservative Government cut income tax on wages (NI tax) for all by 2% in the misguided belief that it would win back some support for them from the British voters!
      
      If the above senior Conservative MPs do lose their seats then a defeated and demoralised Conservative Party will also be headless, in that not only would they lose their current leadership, but could also lose the politician who would most likely have been chosen by the Conservative Party as their next leader to replace Rishi Sunak – Oh what fun and games!
      
      Me thinks the Conservatives will be in ‘panic mode’ after their predicted humiliating defeat in the coming local government elections on 2nd May.

      replyreport
      1. 87

         tsmogposted 8 months agoin reply to this

         hmmm . . . interesting with the knowledge I have of the UK politics from our dialogues. Remind me once again what party you align with, though I know  you favor socialism. I know for sure you are not a conservative.

         replyreport
         1. 93

            Nathanvilleposted 8 months agoin reply to this

            In answer to your question; I’m a socialist, which rules out any right wing party, which in England is just the Conservatives and Reform UK (Reform UK being hard right, and the Conservatives being soft right).
            
            The two main left-wing political parties in England are Labour and Greens; the Greens being further left than Labour.
            
            The Liberal Democrats are in the middle (centralist party that is neither left nor right), and their political ethos is what’s known as a ‘mixed economy’ e.g. a balance between capitalism and socialism.
            
            For my part; which political party do I align with?
            
            Normally I would support Labour, because it’s was founded by the Trade Unions (as their political wing), and to this day the Trade Unions play an important role in the selection process of Labour candidates, the Labour Leader, and policy making e.g. the Trade Unions have 33% of the votes for the Labour Leadership elections; party members have 33% of the votes, and registered supporters have 33% of the votes.
            
            How does the Labour leadership election work?  https://youtu.be/nLddKNvwvYk
            
            However, I’m quite happy to support the Green Party, and sometimes vote for them in local elections; and this year (as a family decision) we are debating whether to vote Green in the General Election because the Greens have increased their ‘support base’ in Bristol quite dramatically in recent years, and stand a good chance of winning in our Constituency in this General Election.
            
            If push came to shove e.g. I lived in Bath and not Bristol, then I would vote Liberal Democratic as a tactical vote to keep the Conservatives out e.g. Bath is a Liberal safe seat with the Conservatives in 2nd place in General Elections.

            replyreport
            1. 86

               theraggededgeposted 8 months agoin reply to this

               Reform aren't 'hard right'. A lot of their suggested policies are quite socialist. There are no viable hard right parties in the UK, yet some people like to pretend there are.
               
               Also, the declining Conservative party is no more 'right' than your Greens.

               replyreport
               1. 93

                  Nathanvilleposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                  Yeah, such as?

                  replyreport
               2. 93

                  Nathanvilleposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                  Yeah, right! 
                  
                  What Reform UK’s policies are socialist? 
                  
                  Reform is a right-wing populist political party; far more right-wing than the current Conservative Party:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK
                  
                  And if you are not convinced with the Wikipedia article, I suggest you take a good hard look at their policies on their website; for example:
                  
                  1.    On the Reform UK website they state “There are only 2 sexes and 2 genders” (typical hard right wing view).
                  
                  2.    Reform UK is anti EU.
                  
                  3.    Reform UK has typical hard right wing views on immigration.
                  
                  4.    Reform UK has typical right wing tax policies.
                  
                  5.    Reform UK, according to their website, wants to partially privatise the civil service.
                  
                  6.    Reform UK clearly states on its website that it “would cut NHS waiting times within two years by increasing the use of private healthcare operations.”
                  
                  7.    Reform UK makes it clear on their website that they are anti-climate change policies, and don’t believe in cutting carbon emissions.
                  
                  8.    Clearly stated on the Reform UK website is that they want to mine the vast energy reserves of coal, oil, natural gas, shale gas and lithium under our feet in the UK, and are very much in favour of fracking to achieve their goals – Even the Conservative Party has shied away from that.
                  
                  9.      On the Reform UK website they clearly state that they are strongly in favour of 'Deregulation' - which is very right-wing.
                  
                  Below:  Link to the Reform UK Policies on their website:
                  https://assets.nationbuilder.com/reform … 5Oct23.pdf
                  
                  Finally, how on earth do you make out that the Greens are right-wing???

                  replyreport
            2. 87

               tsmogposted 8 months agoin reply to this

               Thanks! Enlightening having some knowledge of you. The bottom line is you definitely will not vote the conservative ticket.
               
               Me? I voted Republican from 1972 through 2012 as what is known as a 'sheeple'. I learned that term when I first participated in this forum back when I joined HubPages 13 years ago. Around 2010 in sort of a protest I re-registerd as a 'No Party Preference' abandoning the Republican Party. It was a 60% emotional decision and 40% based on reasoning.
               
               From Mashable (Apr 27, 2017) Wake up, sheeple: Your favorite political insult is now officially a word
               https://mashable.com/article/sheeple-wo … am-webster
               
               For the 2016 presidential election, Trump vs. Clinton, I did a write in vote for Theodore (Teddy) Roosevelt. In the beginning he was a Republican and was president from 1901 - 1909.  He ran again (1912) and lost the nomination for the Republican Party for president. He formed the Bull Moose Party or the Progressive Party and ran under that banner. He lost.
               
               He had a long illustrious career in my view. Two things I admired is what he did as Assistant Secretary to the Navy (1897 - 1898). As president he created the foundation for the formation of the National Park Service becoming a reality a decade later. Old 'boy scout' stuff in me was the catalyst for that.
               
               A long way back to in 2020 I once again voted for Teddy Roosevelt not voting for Trump or Biden. This election cycle, 2024, I am undecided, today. Personally, I think both political 'parties' have gone off the rails moving toward the extremes. Long story.
               
               I have both conservative views and liberal views tugging at me both in the social area and the traditional areas such economics and such.

               replyreport
               1. 93

                  Nathanvilleposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                  How can you vote for a politician who has long been dead (Theodore (Teddy) Roosevelt); my friend in New York did try to explain it to me some years ago, but I was none the wiser, and more confused afterwards? 
                  
                  I wasn’t familiar with the word ‘sheeple’ (although I think I remember you mentioning it before); but yes, we have plenty of voters in Britain who fits that description – especially the less well educated, lower working class, who can so easily be misled by right-wing political spin in the Sun Newspaper, or the left-wing political spin in the Mirror.
                  
                  The other thing I don’t understand, although my New York friend did try to explain it to me is the “registering as a 'No Party Preference'”?  In the UK, your vote, and voting intention, is private between you and your ballot box.

                  replyreport
                  1. 87

                     tsmogposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                     Firstly answering the first question, "How can you vote for a politician who has long been dead (Theodore (Teddy) Roosevelt)?"
                     
                     Stepping back a moment, a write in candidate in the State of California for president has to be certified to count. In other words, my 'write-in' vote for Teddy did not count. It was the same as not voting for the presidential race. Unsure how other states treat write in votes.
                     
                     In other words, it did not take away from the actual candidates on the ballot regarding the total of votes. If it had counted it would have taken away from Biden and Trump by increasing the count (%) of that certified write-in candidate. At least that is the way I see it while open to discussion/correction.
                     
                     Now, why did I vote for Teddy, even though I knew it was the same as not voting? Principle!! Though it is arguable if it was a wasted vote, in 'my' mind it was a vote with 'good conscious'. A way of looking at it, though probably arguable, is I 'acted' in the physical realm.
                     
                     If I had simply not voted, it would be same as saying 'I don't care' or 'my vote does not count' or some such. I would in all honesty be left with saying to others if inquired and chose to disclose it, "I didn't vote." There arrives my thoughts/feelings of what voting means. In other words, is it a privilege, a duty, a right, and on and on. I fall into it is a duty as a citizen.
                     
                     Instead I proudly say, "I voted for Teddy Roosevelt". Of course, voting is a private matter and one needs not expose how they voted and that should be respected in society as I see it. Anyways, my action leads to discussions of self-consciousness as well as the 'Self'.
                     
                     So, one could some it up with I'm weird. ha-ha
                     
                     With the registering to vote and choosing a party when doing so the main cause is to be able to vote in primary elections. States have different formats for the primaries. Oh yeah the primaries are for choosing the nomination of candidate for president by party. And, other elected offices like Senators.
                     
                     Rather than explaining here go to the next link, Primary election types by state by Ballotpedia.
                     https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_election_types_by_state
                     
                     Another reason for registering with a party is statistics.

                     replyreport
                     1. 93

                        Nathanvilleposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                        You’re not weird; after reading and digesting your comprehensive take on the ‘vote for Teddy Roosevelt’ option (which does seem weird to me), I think I can see where you’re coming from!
                        
                        Having said that, I struggle to grapple with it in that we don’t have anything like it in the UK; the nearest analogy I can think of for elections in the UK is where people vote, but deliberately ‘spoil’ their ballot paper e.g. “intentionally spoiling their ballot so as to get their dissatisfaction recorded”, as explained at 2 minutes and 15 seconds into the short video below:-
                        
                        What is a spoiled ballot paper? https://youtu.be/Wfsvm8UQxIY
                        
                        Thanks for the explanation and link on ‘primaries’ in your closing paragraphs; it’s finally clicked (a lightbulb moment).  Where I was struggling to understand is that in the UK we don’t have ‘primaries’; the nearest we have to ‘primaries’ are your ‘closed primaries’ e.g. each political party in the UK have their own method of selecting their candidates and party leader; most political parties involve party members in the election process.
                        
                        For the national government e.g. in Parliament, the leader of the political party who wins the General Election becomes Prime Minister.
                        
                        Here is the Generic candidate selection process by Party in the UK for candidates (the selection process of party leaders being a different process); albeit each political party has its own rules, so there will be variations – and the selection process for party leaders can be different e.g. politicians (MPs) in both the Conservative and Labour party make the first section from existing MPs before the membership can vote on the remaining candidates for party leader, and in the case of Labour, the Trade Unions get 33% of the vote.
                        
                        Generally around a 7 Weeks Process: (which is a lot quicker than the almost 1 year it takes to select the Presidential Candidate in the USA)
                        
                        •    Admin period
                        •    All party members contacted, and given two weeks to submit nominations for candidates.
                        •    Ballot papers printed and sent to all party members
                        •    Two weeks given to vote
                        
                        The General Election process in the UK is just 6 weeks from start to finish - a lot shorter that the Presidential Election in the USA, which seems to drag on for two years!
                        
                        Here’s the number of Party Members, who can vote in the selection process for candidates and party leaders - by Political Party in the UK:  And this is out of a voting population of 48.8 million people.
                        
                        •    Labour Party Members = 366,604
                        •    Conservative Party Members = 172,437
                        •    Reform UK Party Members = 115,000
                        •    Liberal Democrats Party Members = 90,000
                        •    Green Party Members = 53,126

                        replyreport
                        1. 87

                           tsmogposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                           Thanks, Arthur!
                           
                           Forgive me this is long . . .
                           
                           I believe I have a good understanding for the voting/balloting process. I 'think' I have a grasp on the 7 week process. Yes, it seems so the process for electing the president is much lengthier. How is the prime minister elected? Do you get to vote on that? I place an equivalency of the prime minister to the presidency.
                           
                           Our process kind of goes like the following
                           
                           ** The campaigning can begin who knows when relative to when someone declares they are running for president.
                           
                           [Here it is important to mention voting is by state with each having their own rules and procedures.]
                           
                           Filing deadline varies by state for a person to make a candidacy official with the president and the congressional seat if one is due for the ballot. A congressional seat is either for the senate or house of representatives.
                           
                           Primary or caucus varies by state when they are held for party candidate selection process. They occur anywhere from Jan 15 - Sept 10. A caucus is a convention style selection process and a primary is a ballot process.
                           
                           Caucuses are for the presidency only to the best of my knowledge. Some states have a caucus for both parties and some only one party. Caucuses are by party. (See link following for list of states and territories for which process is used.)
                           
                           Primaries, too, are by party as I shared earlier. Yes, they are ballots, but a registered Democrat ballot is different from a Republican ballot as well an independent or 'no party preference. That is another reason why one declares a party when registering to vote. I think mentioned that earlier.
                           
                           A short 1:27 min video on caucuses and primaries.
                           https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nrmZFrpKTU
                           
                           Then comes the National Conventions.
                           "To become the presidential nominee, a candidate typically has to win a majority of delegates. This usually happens through the party's state primaries and caucuses.
                           
                           State delegates go to the national convention to vote to confirm their choice of candidates. But if no candidate gets the majority of a party's delegates during the primaries and caucuses, convention delegates choose the nominee. This happens through additional rounds of voting.
                           
                           At the convention, the presidential nominee officially announces who will run with them for vice president."
                           
                           The next step, is the actual voting. Again, each state has there own rules. So, it can seem confusing and I'll try to keep it simple as best as I can.
                           
                           The official day for voting in the US is November 5th. All voting ends per polling place hours. Mail-in ballots are by the postmark of Nov 5th.
                           
                           However, states do have early voting, absentee ballots, mail-in ballots, and some states have 'all mail-in balloting. That means they are sent to everyone. States have different rules for absentee ballots in the sense of what 'excuses' are acceptable. Some states simply have the option to select to vote by mail rather than at a polling place.
                           
                           California is one such state that is all mail-in voting. So, we no longer have absentee ballots or mail-in ballots in the sense of being requested as an option. But, you can choose to vote at a polling place.
                           
                           What is the difference between absentee ballot and mail-in ballot. Note, again, it varies by state.
                           
                           "Absentee ballot is often specifically used to refer to a ballot that is mailed when a person can’t vote in person (For instance physically unable), while the term mail-in ballot is used in the context of voting policies that enable all people to vote by mail." Also, military personnel use absentee ballots when stationed abroad.
                           
                           Confusing? Voting is contentious between the two main parties Republican/right wing/conservative and the Democrats/left wing/liberal-progressive. One is election security/integrity a Republican go to topic. There biggest contention is mail-in voting fraud.
                           
                           Some links that may help are:
                           
                           2024 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DATES AND CANDIDATE FILING DEADLINES FOR BALLOT ACCESS That is a PDF file.
                           https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-conte … pdates.pdf
                           
                           State Poll Opening and Closing Times (2023) by Ballotpediea
                           https://ballotpedia.org/State_Poll_Open … mes_(2023)
                           
                           Then comes the electoral college for the presidency. Most states have a winner take all concept. Two don't. In other words, the electors follow the majority vote of the state. To win the electoral college the candidate has to meet the threshold of the majority or 270 electoral votes.
                           
                           A 1:47 video about how the electoral college works
                           https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0Sq-PvDYjM
                           
                           Backing up a step or two. Nov 5th is the day of voting
                           
                           ** Nov 17the the electors vote in the states
                           ** Dec 25th the official electoral votes are received by President of the Senate. They are recorded by the archivist.
                           ** Jan 3rd the archivist transfers the certified votes to Congress
                           ** Jan 6th Congress counts the electoral votes. At that time objections can be raised and debated before a states electors are counted.
                           
                           Once completed, again, a majority of 270 is needed to be elected president. If not, then the House of Representatives choose the president by a vote. Each state gets one vote. So, it takes 26 votes to win. So, when a third party candidate is running with sufficient electoral college votes then one sees the possibility of not getting the majority of electoral college votes.
                           
                           ** Jan 20th the president is sworn in to office. It is known as Inauguration Day.
                           
                           This year there is an outside possibility of that happening. Long story for another time.

                           replyreport
                           1. 93

                              Nathanvilleposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                              Thanks for the comprehensive and detailed process for selection and election of the Presidential candidate in America; I was able to actually follow and generally understand your comprehensive description in that I followed both the 2016 & 2020 Presidential Elections on TV – where the news presenters went into the same level of detail as you have done.
                              
                              In Answer to your two questions:-
                              
                              1.    How is the prime minister elected?
                              2.    Do you get to vote on that?
                              
                              Answer the 2nd question first; the answer is NO, I don’t get to vote for the Prime Minister.  The Prime Minister is the leader of whichever political party wins the General Election; and the Leaders of the Political parties are selected internally by each political party, in accordance with that’s party ‘rule book’, which is different from Party to Party – A summary of how the Conservative and Labour Party elect their Leader (who becomes Prime Minister if that wins the General Election) is given below:-
                              
                              ELECTION PROCEDURE OF CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADER:
                              
                              •    Only MPs (Member of Parliament) (elected Conservative politician in the House of Common) can stand for election of Party Leader for the Conservative Party.
                              
                              •    MPs wishing to stand as a candidate for Party Leader must notify the 1922 Committee.  The 1922 Committee make and change the Party Rules, as appropriate.  For example, in the 2019 Conservative Leadership contest the 1922 Committee changed the rules due to the high number of candidates who put themselves forward e.g. the number of proposers needed to get on the ballot was upped from two to eight MPs, and minimum support was added to each ballot.
                              
                              •    In the 2019 contest candidates needed to be nominated by at least 8 Conservative MPs, and needed at least 17 votes from MPs to pass the first ballot
                              
                              •    Under the 1922 Committee Rule change for the 2019 leadership contest; if all candidates receive at least 17 votes from MPs in the first round of voting, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. The second ballot had a cut-off of 33 votes for Conservative MPs, with subsequent ballots excluding the lowest scoring candidate.
                              
                              •    Once a shortlist of two candidates is reached by Conservative MPs in the House of Commons, then Conservative party members get to vote for their preferred candidate from the remaining two candidates (by postal vote) e.g. the 172,437 Conservative Party members choose which of the final two candidates becomes Party Leader, and in this case (in 2019) Boris Johnson was elected as Prime Minister by the Conservative Party.
                              
                              In summary:  The Conservative party's practice is for MPs to eliminate candidates through multiple rounds of voting until two remain, from whom the winner is then chosen by a postal ballot of Conservative party members e.g. by just 172,437 people who pay their membership fees to the Conservative Party.
                              
                              The whole process from start to finish only takes a couple of month’s e.g. The MPs in the House of Commons, in the Conservative Party, forced Theresa May (then Prime Minister) out of Office on the 25th May 2019 because of their dissatisfaction of the way she was handling BREXIT; and on 24th July 2019 the Conservative Party elected Boris Johnson to replace her as the next Prime Minister.
                              
                              A similar process when the Conservative MPs kicked Boris Johnson out of Office on 9th June 2022 due to his constant lies to Parliament; and replaced him with Liz Truss on the 6th Sept 2022; but they kicked her out 6 weeks later, because she spectacularly crashed the UK economy within days of coming to Office as Prime Minster; and so the Conservative Party replaced her with our current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (but many MPs within the Conservative Party are already plotting to get rid of Rishi Sunak sooner rather than later!
                              
                              WHAT IS THE 1922 COMMITTEE?
                              The party leader of the winning party in a General Election become Prime Minister, and once in Office forms a Government by appointing MPs as Government Ministers e.g. each Movement Minister is given a Government Department to be responsible for – This is known as the Cabinet; and when in Opposition, the Shadow Cabinet. 
                              
                              It’s the Prime Minister and his Cabinet who are the Government.  MPs who are not appointed by the Prime Minister to be in the Cabinet are not part of the Government (the Executive), they are part of Parliament (The Legislature), and are called ‘Back Benchers’.
                              
                              In the Conservative Party, in 1922 the backbenchers formed a pressure group within the Conservative Party called the 1922 Committee e.g. to represent the interests of Conservative backbenchers, and to hold the Conservative Prime Minister to account.
                              
                              Over the decades the 1922 Committee have acquired considerable power within the Conservative Party, to the point that they make and change the Conservative Party Rules, as appropriate; and have the power to get rid of an undesirable Conservative Leader via the ‘No Confidence in the Leader’ letters process – as explained below:
                              
                              If at least 15% of Conservative MPs write a “letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister” to the 1922 Committee; then the 1922 Committee will automatically call for a vote of ‘No Confidence’ amongst the Conservative backbenchers – And when that happens (which happens frequently in the Conservative Party), then even if the Prime Minister survives the ‘vote of no confidence’ his/her fate is sealed e.g. he’s lost the confidence and authority to rule, and invariably will be forced to resign as Prime Minister within a few short months.
                              
                              Why is the 1922 committee so powerful? https://youtu.be/xDrV4v_3gQ4
                              
                              In 2022 - Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces no-confidence vote  https://youtu.be/EQoJocwEwxc
                              
                              ELECTION PROCEDURE OF LABOUR PARTY LEADER:
                              •    For a Labour MP (Member of Parliament) to stand as candidate for Party Leader they need to be nominated by at least 10% of Labour MPs, and then
                              
                              •    From the candidates selected by the MPs e.g. Labour MPs who got nominate by at least 10% of Labour MPs, then need to be nominated by at least 5% of the Labour Party Membership, and or be nominated by at least two Trade Unions.
                              
                              •    Once successfully selected as a candidate:-
                              
                              (i)    The Labour Party Membership (currently 366,604 people who are paid up members of the Labour Party) get 33% of the votes,
                              
                              (ii)    Registered Supporters e.g. people who pay a fixed fee ($30) to vote in the Labour leadership contest get 33% of the votes, and
                              
                              (iii)    The Trade Unions get 33% of the votes for election of the Labour Leader (who will become Prime Minister if/when Labour win the General Election).
                              
                              It’s all done by postal vote, using the alternate vote system until there is just one clear leader with more than 50% of the votes, as briefly explained in this short video: https://youtu.be/nLddKNvwvYk

                              replyreport
                              1. 87

                                 tsmogposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                                 Thanks! I read it thoroughly realizing the dynamics of the organization of governments with the lens of Political 'Science' offers opportunity to newer nations to choose from empirical evidence for success. Curiosity piqued leading me to discover a Wikipedia page sharing when a nation's governmental system was established. Being ignorant, I was surprised at the newness of so many nations.
                                 
                                 List of sovereign states by date of formation
                                 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s … _formation
                                 
                                 I have delved into the many different forms of government, i.e. monarchy, direct democracy, constitutional, and etc with fascination. Alas, time is an issue as well as other priorities in life at this time. I do wonder, if I was exposed to it in high school how my direction with upper education may have went.

                                 replyreport
                                 1. 93

                                    Nathanvilleposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                                    The UK Government is a ‘Parliamentary Democracy’ that dates back to the Magna Carta of 1215 (over 800 years ago).
                                    
                                    The UK Government also has a monarchy as the ‘Head of State’ albeit these days the King has no real powers.
                                    
                                    The UK also has an unwritten constitution, and still has unwritten laws (common law, that dates back to the medieval period) e.g. ‘public right of access across private land’ etc.
                                    
                                    I did have a look at your Wikipedia link; although for the UK Wikipedia does make it unnecessarily complex, primarily because it attempts to include historically Wales, Scotland and Ireland into the mix – which in itself is a complex history.  And the Wikipedia (surprisingly) doesn’t even mention the Magna Carta, which is the corner stone of Parliament in England, and the British Constitution.
                                    
                                    But just focusing on England alone (ignoring the rest of the UK) then the foundation of today’s Government/Parliament in London stems from Magna Carta e.g. the point in time when the Barons (now the House of Lords) wrestled powers away from the King – so that the King was no longer above the law.
                                    
                                    Prior to 1332 only the Nobles (Lords e.g. Barons) met with the King in the House of Lords; then in 1332 it was extended to include knights and burgesses (commoners), and in 1341 the knights and burgesses met in their own Chamber in Parliament (House of Commons), separate to the Lords (House of Lords).
                                    
                                    800 Years of Magna Carta:  https://youtu.be/RQ7vUkbtlQA
                                    
                                    PUBLIC RIGHT OF WAY ACROSS PRIVATE LAND IN ENGLAND – A LEGAL RIGHT UNDER COMMON LAW
                                    
                                    Historically, under common law (unwritten medieval law) these routes became accepted under the common law as having been public since time immemorial.  During the Victorian era there was over a century of violence between landowners and walkers over these rights (for obvious reasons); and in the early days the courts tended to side with the land owners e.g. ‘Trespassers will be Prosecuted’; but eventually the ‘higher courts’ (Courts of Appeal) upheld the legal rights of walkers under the medieval unwritten ‘common laws’, and eventually (in 2000) these ‘common laws’ were put into Legislation in Parliament – With a caveat that any historical path that can’t be evidenced and documented by 2026 will be lost for ever – As briefly explained in this short video:-
                                    
                                    How England's Oldest Road Was Nearly Lost Forever:  https://youtu.be/3dYc0Ouxhx0

                                    replyreport
   2. 87

      tsmogposted 8 months agoin reply to this

      Thanks Arthur. Interesting.
      
      At this time I noted two things. The YouGov poll is not a base of 100 whereas the Ipsos poll is. Second, the YouGov poll per the full question asked for the top three issues only. That affects the percentages as I see it. However, both polls indicate what the priorities are themselves for the UK and US with their political parties.
      
      What is notable with the three different polls by Ipsos is how far skewed the #1 issue becomes with the addition of their unique new additions. With Poll B is Democracy (Threat) and with Poll C is Political, i.e. Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
      
      What is interesting for 'me' is actually reading the methodology sharing the actual questions asked with results. Also, the controlled variable = poll A compared to the other two with the addition of the two independent variables.
      
      What is seen is with Poll C is the relationship of immigration and the economy remains the same as with Poll A that being immigration and then the economy. However, with Poll C immigration drops below the economy. There are others, yet those two are today in the top three consistently per polls.
      
      What I don't know is if the same options were available for all three polls other than the addition of their independent variables. Perhaps, the 'other' and 'I don't know' designations and their percentage encompasses those oddities.

      replyreport
      1. 93

         Nathanvilleposted 8 months agoin reply to this

         Yeah, it’s not a fully ‘like for like’ comparison between the IPSOS Polls and the YouGov Tracker.  The YouGov link isn’t an ‘as at’ ‘opinion poll’, it’s a tracker e.g. public opinion re-sampled every couple of weeks; giving all political parties valuable information on trends over time of public opinion – which helps political parties gauge how public opinion reacts (almost in real time) to their political policies.  So in that respect the YouGov Tracker is a useful tool for political parties in the UK.

         replyreport