Would writing on Christmas topics guarantee traffic at this time?
No. You should plan on writing seasonal articles 2 months in advance and 3 months is better. This gives them time to age a little, allows Google to index them, and lets you edit out any kinks so that you are presenting your very best work.
By December 15 you should be publishing Valentine's Day material, January 15 -Easter material and so on.
Marye is correct - for the best traffic result, your seasonal articles need to be up well ahead of the season itself. If you publish Christmas related articles now, you'll still see a small bump, but nothing like you would be seeing if you had published your Christmas articles by September or October (or even sooner with Christmas, since it seems like the season starts earlier and earlier all the time).
But posting Christmas articles now isn't a total loss, as long as the articles you're writing are evergreen. 'Best children's toys of 2011' has a short shelf life, 'Best children's toys of all time' or 'Best classic children's toys' will be searched for pretty much every year. It's possible to build a stable of seasonally themed articles that will attract readers every year if you think in terms of providing information that will always be wanted during a particular season.
Writing on spiritual and or religious topics wii always draw readers.
Guarantee is a strong word and nothing can guarantee you traffic. However, that said, you might be lucky if you write on a low competition, highly searched keyword to get some traffic now. It's worth I try I would think.
I've just finished posting a series for Christmas. I know print publications plan their seasonal articles well ahead but I've never found it made a difference to have them too far ahead online. In my own blog the Christmas posts from last year didn't start bringing in traffic until the start of December, roughly. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day they will be huge but the build up starts at the beginning of the month.
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