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GOP Field: “Going for Broke-”red

Updated on March 14, 2012

The GOP is weighing in regarding the possibility of no clear winner with respect to the Republican Primary and Caucuses. The topic of ‘Delegate Math’ integrates a range of opinions depending on just who is asked. The candidates have staked their claim contingent upon the outcome of the Red States of Alabama and Mississippi.

The former Chairman of the Republican National Committee, Michael Steele, incorporated the relative changes to the nominating process. His wholesome logic seemed simple; the first three States of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, should not have so much power to determine who would be the party representative. The policies he initiated achieved just that, specifically the proportional delegate rule and penalty rule, among others.

Mitt Romney believes this process is hurting the GOP and creating a gift for the incumbent President; hard to argue that point. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are fighting for their political lives based wholly on the results of tonight’s results of the aforementioned Red States and in no small measure Hawaii and American Samoa. They strongly believe they can win in a Tampa Brokered Convention. Ron Paul’s entire campaign revolves around the ‘Delegate Strategy’ regarding non-committed delegates.

The system employed has created a great deal of confusion regarding the delegate standings to include an accurate delegate count. The individual Primaries and Caucuses have been contentious with respect to a clear winner. The list of disputed events is as long as the list of non-disputed results.

The latest installment of this condition occurred in the Virgin Islands. Ron Paul apparently garnered 10 more votes than Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney however was declared the winner. He was awarded with a majority of the delegates for that supposed victory.

Therefore, in a matter of mere hours, this process can either provide a clear path or an all out free for all in the quest for the Republican nominee. At stake are a total of 119 delegates.

Here’s a glimpse at the potentially decisive delegates to determine the fate of the GOP candidates.

Alabama 50 delegates

Mississippi 40 delegates

Hawaii 20 delegates

Am. Samoa 9 delegates

Romney needs a clear decisive victory to put this issue to bed. Anything less than half and the Brokered Convention scenario is rightfully the topic of conversation going forward.

Rick Santorum needs a clear decisive victory to stay viable. He requires more than half to keep the pressure on Romney’s bid to close this contest out before all states have voiced their votes.

Newt Gingrich needs a big win especially in the south to maintain his standing as a contender. A Newt loss in both southern contests spells his exit to the race. Ironically, this would be the worst possible scenario because the conservative vote is being split between Newt and Rick. Combine that with a Santorum big night, and all bets are off.

Michael Steele, Be careful what you wish for. Yet another example of the Politics of Unintended Consequences…Enjoy the Show America.

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    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      I haven't followed the news in a while. How was the turnout. I recall the Illinois turnout was historically low which usually predicts participation in the General in November. Thanks for the update Sooner28.

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Good day Professor,

      It appears as though the GOP has decided to rally around Romney after all; but they did generate interest in what is typically a process story. I found it fun while it lasted. Thanks for checking in and as always thanks for your comments... and for sharing as well.

    • profile image

      Sooner28 

      6 years ago

      Romney somehow pulled it out. 3 primaries in the bag tonight.

    • phdast7 profile image

      Theresa Ast 

      6 years ago from Atlanta, Georgia

      A good summation of what we are in the middle of...thannk for bringing clarity to the process. SHARING

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Late night all around. Mr. Steele indeed got his wish if he wanted to make it more interesting. Hawaii was a close Caucus until the end. I didn't know Rick Santorum kept you up at night. Thanks for checking in and for your comments as always.

    • Michele Travis profile image

      Michele Travis 

      6 years ago from U.S.A. Ohio

      Sorry I am a little bit late but Rick Santorum Took Mississippi last night. You are very correct, when you told Micheal Steele too be careful of what he wish for.

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Good day Teaches12345,

      Truly the pleasure is mine. Thanks for your comments.

    • teaches12345 profile image

      Dianna Mendez 

      6 years ago

      It is still all up in the air and many miles to go. Thanks for the update on the candidates and election campaigns.

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