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For the US, what has been the avg annual per capita rate of growth?

  1. My Esoteric profile image89
    My Esotericposted 3 years ago

    Since 1770?  Since 1990?  Which period had the highest growth rate, how much?  Between 1770 - 1820, 1820 - 1870, 1970 - 1913, 1913 - 1950, 1950 - 1970, 1970 - 1990, or 1990 - 2012?  Did Europe (including England) do better than the US in any of those periods, if so, which one(s)?  Why? to all of those questions.

    You are going to be surprised at the answers, at least I was.

    1. GA Anderson profile image83
      GA Andersonposted 3 years agoin reply to this

      No way I am going through all that research before I know your angle - Show me the Cliff Notes first.

      GA

      1. My Esoteric profile image89
        My Esotericposted 3 years agoin reply to this

        No angle, simply perception vs supposed reality.  I had an idea in my mind what the numbers ought to be, even after all that I have written about it, and was surprised at what I have recently been reading about; I was off by more than I am comfortable with.

        As you will see, it is extremely relevant in today's political environment.  Basically, I am looking for your perceptions at the moment and any reasons you may have for them.  I will provide the answers I have found and the source once people, if any, have had a chance to chime in. You can take if from there whether to believe it or not.

        1. GA Anderson profile image83
          GA Andersonposted 3 years agoin reply to this

          "Since 1770?  Since 1990?  Which period had the highest growth rate, how much?  Between 1770 - 1820, 1820 - 1870, 1970 - 1913, 1913 - 1950, 1950 - 1970, 1970 - 1990, or 1990 - 2012?  Did Europe (including England) do better than the US in any of those periods, if so, which one(s)?  Why? to all of those questions.

          Too many unstated questions.

          I know you have a point to make, help me out here. I will argue black is really white, unless you want me to justify that white is really black. At least give me a clue.

          But without doing any Googling I will shoot from the hip and say 1950-1970. Or maybe 1820-1870.

          Am I close? Do I win a prize?

          GA

          1. My Esoteric profile image89
            My Esotericposted 3 years agoin reply to this

            You do win a prize with 1950-1970, 

            Right now, the economy has been achieving between 1 and 3% real growth since the recession, depending on the quarter.  Europe is in the same ballpark.  China has been perking along around 9% + or -.  Both Rs and Ds want to see 3.5 to 4% real growth, if not more.  The questions I am asking revolve around this: given our perceptions of the Roaring 20s and the great leap forward with industrial revolution in the mid-1800s and the long periods of economic growth in the 1960s and 1990s, what should our expectations be?  Is the current one to three percent growth realistic, or is something bigger or something smaller a better fit?

            1. GA Anderson profile image83
              GA Andersonposted 3 years agoin reply to this

              Is that a trap door I am standing on?

              I can only wish I were knowledgeable enough to venture even a semi-educated guess.

              GA

              1. My Esoteric profile image89
                My Esotericposted 3 years agoin reply to this

                You know you are, and I have already given away the answers.

    2. Jared Liescheidt profile image61
      Jared Liescheidtposted 3 years agoin reply to this

      I don't know what the growth rate is or was, but I do know that my generation, the current youth, is the largest, relatively speaking, since the baby boomers. Which makes us dangerous to the corporation we call a government here in America.

    3. My Esoteric profile image89
      My Esotericposted 3 years agoin reply to this

      OK, I guess nobody is going to play.  The answers are that avg annual per capita GDP growth are:

      1700 - 1820: ~ 0.4%
      1820 - 1870: ~ 1.2%
      1870 - 1913: ~ 2.0%
      1913 - 1950: ~ 1.4%
      1950 - 1970: ~ 1.9%
      1970 - 1990: ~ 1.6%
      1990 - 2012: ~ 1.5%
      1990 - 2013: ~ 1.4%
      2010 - 2013: ~ 1.4%

      Europe took the lead in the 1950 - 1970 time frame with a 3..8% annual growth and has been slightly ahead since then.

      See Technical Appendices at http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/en/capital21c2 for Chapter 2, Download the excel spreadsheet and see Tab TS2.3.  I modified it for 2013 information with more current information.

      So, exactly how bad is President Obama's recovery when compared to historical rates and Piketty's projection of 1.8% annual growth 2012 - 2030 and assuming America's political logjam finally breaks which is holding back growth.

 
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