Will House adopt the just passed Senate version of the GOP Tax Plan

1. 85

   My Esotericposted 6 years ago

   The Senate jammed through their version of the GOP Tax Plan the morning of 12/2/17 with only one vote to spare since GOP Sen Bob Corker voted against it.  To get 4 or 5 wayward Senators to vote for the bill, various types of pork had to be included in the final version (which was being written as the vote was being taken). 
   
   Several of those changes are ones the House will not like.  So the big question is, if the pork is removed in Conference, will those Senators to whom it was given still vote for this bill?
   
   Another topic is IF this tax bill becomes law, how will that impact the 2018 mid-term elections? 
   - Only about 35% of Americans like this bill
   - Unbiased analysis shows either version of this bill ends up as a Tax Hike for Middle America
   - Unbiased analysis shows either version will balloon the deficit and the national debt because the expected growth will not materialize (history shows the same)
   - Americans will see a sharp rise in health premiums (at least for those that can still afford health insurance) due to the repeal of the insurance mandate
   - Only the very rich will see a substantial tax cut.

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      Dean Traylorposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      I have a feeling that more pork will be added when they try to marry both version of this bill. By that time it will either go from bad to worse or one will be accepted by the other. In a strange way, I'm wondering (although it's probably outside the realm or reality...or maybe not with the legislative body we have right now) if after all is said in done, they a have a bill that's actually similar to the current tax codes.

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   2. 89

      GA Andersonposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      This feels like Deja vu all over again..."  Only this time it is the Republicans pulling the same shenanigans to pass this tax bill, that the Democrats pulled to pass Obamacare. Pork bribes and political favors bought the votes - not the merit of the bill, or, will of the people.
      
      Geesh, it stunk when the Dems did, and it stinks even more with the Repubs doing it.
      
      GA

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         svaz85635posted 6 years agoin reply to this

         Exactly my feelings.  “But we have to pass the [health care] bill so that you can find out what’s in it....”  - Pelosi

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            My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            Actually, you might try reading the COMPLETE story behind that statement since it was taken totally out of context. 
            
            She was saying the Senate needed to pass Their bill before Her conference would know what is in it before the House can vote on it.  Makes perfect since and sounds very reasonable to me.

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               Dean Traylorposted 6 years agoin reply to this

               My Esoteric: thanks for posting that comment. A lot of people are trying to use that to justify the way the Senate tax bill was passed. All one had to do was look it up and discover that Pelosi's remarks were taken out of context.  Still, this is not about Obamacare and what Pelosi supposedly said....this is about a tax bill that was rammed through the the senate for a vote with tons of amendments added to it at the last minutes. In many cases, there are senators (both Democrat and Republican) that still don't know what's in it.  And, it seems by the hour, news outlets are printing something they "just found." That doesn't fill me with a whole lot of confidence in this bill... if it is adopted by the House.

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         My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         No doubt, GA, but if it is any solace, Obamacare helped those who could not get or could not afford health insurance (a good thing) while the #GOPTaxScam ends up only helping those who do not need help.
         
         In any case, that wasn't my point.  My point is, can these promises make it through conference and if they don't, will the tax bill fail as a result.

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            GA Andersonposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            Hi guy, my crystal ball says the stinkiest shenanigans are yet to come.
            
            My sense is that the push to pass the bill is just a push to pass some kind of Republican legislation - regardless of its quality, and that as such, the doubters will be pummeled  with the reasoning that the future of the Republican party, (and Republican control of legislatures), depend on the bill's passage.
            
            So... if the conference members can't cut the pork and favors in the bill handed to them - they will add whatever is needed to buy the needed "yes" votes from the House.
            
            My crystal ball even showed a few storm clouds; like maybe the political dealings might be too much for even the most conservative folks - and create a backlash damaging  to the party. It isn't going to be pretty. I can even of a bet that the Dems will have plenty of opportunities to dust off a few of the more strident Republican anti-Obamacare passage criticisms to throw back at them.
            
            GA

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   wildernessposted 6 years ago

   "Unbiased analysis shows either version of this bill ends up as a Tax Hike for Middle America"
   
   Interesting comment, especially as some 70% of middle class Americans get a tax cut.
   
   "Unbiased analysis shows either version will balloon the deficit"
   
   Also interesting: what I've seen is something around a trillion $$...over 10 years.  Or about 100B per year.  As it's been a long time since we've seen a deficit that low it is interesting to hear how it will "balloon the deficit".
   
   "Americans will see a sharp rise in health premiums (at least for those that can still afford health insurance) due to the repeal of the insurance mandate"
   
   Can we reword that just a bit, giving a better feel for the whole story?  "With the repeal of the mandate to purchase products they can't afford and don't want, older Americans, and those that aren't paying their own way, may see a rise in health insurance premiums as young healthy people just starting out in life are not forced to subsidize them any longer".

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      My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      "Unbiased analysis shows either version of this bill ends up as a Tax Hike for Middle America"
      Interesting comment, especially as some 70% of middle class Americans get a tax cut. [YES, that is true ... for the first year or two.  But, under the Senate version, by 2027, EVERY person earning less than $75,000 will be paying more taxes (Joint Committee on Taxation).  The House version is not much better where by 2026 about 25% of the un-wealthy will be paying more in taxes (the Tax Policy Center-TOC). Further, by 2027 the top 1% of households will get nearly 100% of the tax benefits (the TPC)
      
      "Unbiased analysis shows either version will balloon the deficit"
      Also interesting: what I've seen is something around a trillion $$...over 10 years.  Or about 100B per year.  As it's been a long time since we've seen a deficit that low it is interesting to hear how it will "balloon the deficit". [ First reread what you just wrote, it is so wrong it is almost funny.  The House bill will Increase the CURRENT Deficit by $100 billion a year ,,, and NOT lower it to that amount,  Also, by 2027, the House plan will increase the Debt by 5% of GDP (the Tax Policy Center)
      
      So, by implication from your healthcare comment, you would support a repeal of the law that requires all medical facilities to take care of anyone who needs emergency service regardless of insurance status.  Meaning when your healthy, uninsured 25 year old gets mangled in a car crash, the hospital can choose to turn him or her away b/c they don't have insurance.

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         wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         Why is it funny?  1,000,000,000,000 / 10 = 100,000,000,000.  This is basic arithmetic, nothing funny there.  You claim the deficit will be twice that, but my information is different  and you go on to say that in 10 years the debt will increase by 5% of GDP - as GDP is less than 20T, and 20T * 5% = 1T it seems rather obvious that your figures of a deficit of 600B (current 500B + 100B) are incorrect.  Total addition to debt load is 1T over 10 years, according to you, meaning an average deficit of 100B.  Which we haven't seen for years.
         
         You seem to be confusing "debt" with "deficit", or at best using them interchangeably.  They don't mean the same thing.
         
         You might imply that re: healthcare, but then you have a propensity for drawing conclusions that haven't the faintest connection to what was said.  Want to try again, making an honest effort to respond to the words printed rather than your own thoughts?

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            My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            How much do you think the current deficit is?  Clue - It is $666 B for FY 2017.
            
            How much do you think the current debt is?  Clue - It is $20,24 T in FY 2017
            
            How much do you think the current GDP is?  Clue - It is $19.2 T in FY 2017
            
            Are we in agreement? If so, then we can get to the math.

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   colorfuloneposted 6 years ago

   The Tax Plan already passed in the House, now passed in the Senate.  Next it goes to Conference and then to the President's desk to be signed into law.

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   svaz85635posted 6 years ago

   Quite a few Republican voters believe the plan will primarily benefit large corporations and wealthy Americans while hurting the middle class.

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      wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      Hard to understand how a tax cut will hurt the middle class.  Wonder if they know they're taking more home or if they're swallowing liberal lies that indicate a tax hike to middle class.

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