Will the GOP Tax Plan help or hurt the Republicans in 2018?

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  1. My Esoteric profile image93
    My Esotericposted 11 months ago

    When Obamacare passed it began life with a high approval rating.  Once the GOP propaganda juggernaut kicked into high gear (along with some amazing, but temporary Dem incompetence), that approval rating tanked and stayed that way until the GOP tried to repeal it.  Today, Obamacare is well liked by Americans.

    The GOP Tax Plan is broadly disliked just prior to passage; in fact ONLY 25% of Americans like it. 65% if Independents think it will NOT help the Middle Class but WILL help the Wealthy.

    With that as a baseline, the fact that the Ds will begin their own GOP-style propaganda effort, and that the 2018 election is only 11 months away, it would seem likely the GOP will get killed worse than the Democrats did in 2010.  (Remember, even at its worse, Obamacare was liked better than the GOP Tax Plan is today.)

    1. profile image0
      ahorsebackposted 11 months agoin reply to this

      I think you have to separate the two - The tax plan from the two year elections , Those seats  generally  go to the opposing party of the president for legislative balance  ,I think both parties realize that need for  consistency ?   

      The tax plan however WILL reelect Trump in  2020 , that's almost a guarantee guarding some other issue showing up !  You know how the incumbent generally has the greater advantage , lets face it THAT and the tax plan depend wholly  on how the voters wallets are doing?

      You think ?

      1. My Esoteric profile image93
        My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

        #UnpresidentTrump barely won when is approval rating was 10 points higher than it is now and running against a flawed (yet immeasurably more qualified) candidate.  The ONLY people who will vote for Trump in 2020 are the 25 - 30% that are his die-hard supporters.

        The rate he is going in tearing down and isolating America, I wouldn't be surprised that he loses one or two ruby-red states.  Like they did in the resolution condemning America for reinstating the Cuban boycott, all but a handful of nations will condemn Trump for officially recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. 

        I don't know if you are old enough to remember back to the 1950s when America earned the title of Ugly Americans, but you are seeing the reemergence of that insult; also well earned.

        1. wilderness profile image97
          wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

          Yep - he's "tearing it down" all right.  Lowering unemployment, raising wages, lowering excessive taxation, increasing protection from terrorism, getting rid of people in the country illegally, working on protecting our southern border from the invasion that has been going on through the last 5 or so presidents, refusing to kiss N Korea's behind...he just keeps tearing it down.  All the crap that the liberals found reasonable and proper but was causing massive harm to the country.

          Great!  Let him continue, if that's "tearing down America".

          1. Randy Godwin profile image94
            Randy Godwinposted 11 months agoin reply to this

            Yes, and Trump inherited a mess economywise. lol

          2. My Esoteric profile image93
            My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

            Lowering unemployment. He lowered it from 4.8 to 4.1%, WOW.  All he did was carry on what Obama started. 

            Lowering "excessive taxation".  America has lower taxes than the rest of the industrialized world already.  Even at 35%, corporations EFFECTIVE tax rate was around 21%, about the same as the rest of the industrialized world and they have a VAT tax that the US doesn't.  WOW, I am impressed. (You didn't mention the extra $1.5 trillion in Debt Trump just added and that doesn't include the interest needed to service the debt)

            What increasing the protectin from terrorism?  At best he is carrying on Obama's legacy since we have not had a foreign terrorist attack since 9/11.  WOW. 

            Obama got rid of more illegals that Trump has, WOW.

            The last 5 presidents didn't push North Korea into accelerating their missile, nuke, and H-bomb technology and capability.  NK launched 16 missiles from the 1st one in 1984 until Trump takes office.  It has fired 20 more since he took office.  Clinton got NK to agree to a  moratorium of missile launches in 1999 and it lasted until 2004.  Boy, I sure feel safer because of Trump ... NOT.  WOW, I am even more impressed.

            I am also impressed that the entire world has condemned the United States twice now in the UN, once for stupidly reinstating the Cuban embargo (hurting American industry in the process) and again with dangerously officially recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

            Oh yes, let us not forget pulling out of a very beneficial TPP and probably NAFTA as well as endangering the world by pulling out of the climate accord ... The ONLY nation in the world to do so.

            Let's see, oh yeah, signing a tax bill that will raise taxes by 2027 on EVERY taxpayer earning less than $200,000.  Very impressive.

            1. jackclee lm profile image84
              jackclee lmposted 11 months agoin reply to this

              You think the GOP will be hurt in the mid term election? Perhaps, but my prediction is that all the imcumbents, both parties, will have a hard time. They are the insiders and part of the swamp. They will all be held accountable for the failure to repeal the ACA. In addition, the ACA will fail in about two years and then the Democrats will own it for they did not support the bill to repeal and replace...McCain will go down as the critical vote that left this mostrosity of a bill in tact.
              The tax reform bill, though pasted by only Republican votes, is a much better bill than ACA. It will give the people more money in their pockets...and will help our businesses compete overseas.
              make america first and MAGA.

    2. wilderness profile image97
      wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

      "The GOP Tax Plan is broadly disliked just prior to passage; in fact ONLY 25% of Americans like it. 65% if Independents think it will NOT help the Middle Class but WILL help the Wealthy."

      Do you think that is because of the lies, misinformation and partial tales being told about it, or do you actually believe the majority of the middle class is too stupid to do basic arithmetic?

      You forget - unlike ObamaCare, this tax code helps those the most that are paying the most.  It is not a simple giveaway, from someone else's pocketbook, as ObamaCare was made out to be.  Greed, then, is a major difference, don't you think?

      1. My Esoteric profile image93
        My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

        That it is the problem with those on the Right, they think everything is so simple and cut and dried.  There is no "basic" arithmetic that will help them understand the impact of this #GOPTaxScam.  That is why any smart person needs to rely on unbiased analysis from the Tax Policy Center or the Joint Committee on Taxation Or even the right-leaning Tax Foundation.

        But, to answer your question, no I don't think the middle class (me) are "too stupid to do basic arithmetic." I actually think they can normally tell fact from fiction which is why 65% of them think they will see little if any benefit from this law.

        Give me examples of the "lies, misinformation and partial tales " that you are referring to.

        1. wilderness profile image97
          wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

          Well, maybe they're right.  After all, all the projections are that 80% of the middle class will see lower taxes; that only leaves 45% (minimum) that are wrong.

          #1:  65% of middle class will not see any benefit.
          #2:  Only the rich will get a tax cut.  And corporations.
          #3:  The deficit will skyrocket, to 2T.
          #4:  Most Americans will get no tax cut or an increase.
          #5  Trump's plan (as if he crafted it) will benefit only the rich.

          That enough, or do you need more?

          1. My Esoteric profile image93
            My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

            No, the projections are that (based on the tax plan signed into law) EVERYBODY, by 2027, earning less than $200,000 will be paying HIGHER taxes.

            1. wilderness profile image97
              wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

              What do you mean "No"?  That IS what the projections are: that 80% of the middle class (that pays taxes, anyway) will see a tax cut next year.

              But if (IF) congress doesn't extend the tax cuts, perhaps they will go up in 10 years.  Of course, had Democrats been concerned about the middle class in the first place they would have made a large enough majority that those cuts would not have expired in 8 years. 

              But that has nothing to do with what people are being led to believe, does it?  Nobody is concerned (except those with TDS) about 10 years from now, just what their bill will be next year.

              1. Randy Godwin profile image94
                Randy Godwinposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                So you're not concerned with the deficit this may/will create in ten years, Dan. Is this the new conservative outlook under Trump followers?

                1. jackclee lm profile image84
                  jackclee lmposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                  By what means are you getting the deficit projections? If you are basing the CBO, you might as well flip a coin. They have been wrong on past estimates from ACA...
                  Any projections more than 1 year is totally useless. IMHO

                  1. My Esoteric profile image93
                    My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                    Jack, I used to do the same job as the CBO for the Air Force so I know exactly what they are capable of and how to interpret their findings..  The CBO is mostly correct given the assumptions and constraints used at the time of their estimate. 

                    It is unfortunate that most on your side don't understand how the field of cost and economic estimation works.  Also, why do you believe a politician's claim that their corporate tax cuts will spur enough growth to cover the Huge increase in national debt as a result of this bill.  I hope you say (so that you are consistent) you don't believe that either, or that there will be tax cuts for the middle class, since that is more than one year out as well.

                    BTW, the CBO WAS within their margin of error based on the assumptions and constraints that were available at the time of the estimate.  They were also correct with their estimates (which kept getting better for ACA) as more data came in.

                  2. Randy Godwin profile image94
                    Randy Godwinposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                    So you want me to trust the Cons estimate, Jack? lol

                2. wilderness profile image97
                  wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                  Looks pretty good to me - deficits of around 200B per year compared to 666B current.  Where do you get the idea that deficits will rise?

                  1. Randy Godwin profile image94
                    Randy Godwinposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                    Because the majority of the tax breaks will go to the stockholders who will simply buy more stock rather than create more jobs and higher salaries. You think that would do it?

                    And when did trickle down economics--or voodoo economics according to the Dems-- work like the cons said it would? Remember the mess Obama inherited from Dubya? Did you think it ended well for him, or Bush Sr., or Reagan for that matter?

                  2. GA Anderson profile image84
                    GA Andersonposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                    I haven't looked around much Wilderness, but your numbers are confusing to me.

                    You have referred to the "new," annual deficit as being $200 billion annually -due to the tax bill, instead of the current $666 billion, a praise worthy decrease. But, the few articles I looked at had the tax bill adding, ($56 billion to $150 billion), to the annual deficit - not reducing it to $200 billion.

                    What did I miss?

                    GA

              2. My Esoteric profile image93
                My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                Wilderness, I see you added in the caveat "NEXT YEAR", to your response (It was missing in the original).  So yes, MOST (not ALL like Trump, Ryan, and McConnell PROMISED) middle class will see a tax cut in 2018.  But in 2019 it will be fewer, and in 2020 it will be fewer still, and by 2027 ALL middle class will see a tax HIKE).  So you think that giving you a dollar next year but taking away 10 dollars in 2027 is good law?

                Are you telling me you take "IF Congress does something" as a rational that it will happen?  Until Congress does it, you can use only what is on the table today to say what is going to happen in the future.  To do otherwise is foolish or partisan.

                I have no idea what you mean by "large enough majority".

                And of course, the Rs are banking on the idea that taxpayers don't care what their tax bill is going to be 2, 3, ... 10 years from now.  I think they are going to be surprised in 2018 when they pay the price for what they did this week.

                1. wilderness profile image97
                  wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                  Ah, but your tax hike is based on current tax law, which is virtually certain to change before the 10 years is up.  When has it not happened, after all - when have we gone 10 years without any tax law changes?  That IS why I asked - because you seem to have a crystal ball hidden somewhere.

                  Are you unaware that the time limit was imposed to meet requirements that without a large majority of Senate voters it must end?  That with only a bare majority it could not be extended further?  That with additional Democratic votes it could have been?

                  Sounds like ObamaCare, doesn't it?  Nobody cared...as long as they got their free health care (massive confusion between "care" and "insurance"), and certainly nobody cared that the system was completely unsustainable as written.  But the Dems of the time indicated it was only a first try - that it WOULD be changed before it fell apart.  Does that sound familiar at all?

  2. profile image0
    ahorsebackposted 11 months ago

    How about that " ........Too stupid to do basic arithmetic........ " . That about covers the whole tax plan obstruction.    When a people are so entitled as to not recognize MORE governed entitlement packages ?  Seriously , What else do you call it ?

  3. profile image0
    ahorsebackposted 11 months ago

    I look at all the charts , even CNN's, and in every category of income for "middle class"  incomes , there IS savings ! Now , either those fighting it are too  polluted by ideological deals  or  really ARE shallow on basic adding , subtracting  skills . Middle class wins , yet true to liberal attention spans and the "history of now "believers ,we are all going to suffer . Interestingly , they used the middle class losses in campaigning the corrupt Hilary , Sanders , Stein , Warren  , candidates  ?

    ' ....splain that ?

    Liberals don't give a damned about any cl ass but their own  entitlement cl ass .

    1. My Esoteric profile image93
      My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

      How can it be a good thing when the GOP gives the middle class $1 in 2018 and take back $10 in 2027.  That is what the #GOPTaxScam does.  Another thing the Scam does is allow huge corporations to pay zero taxes like they did before the corporate alternative tax was put in place.  More extremely wealthy will be able to pay zero taxes for a while as well.

      Oh yeah, no tax cut in history during a growing economy as EVER stimulated measurable growth.  So this huge, beautiful, non-historic tax scam will probably not grow the economy enough to offset the massive increase in national debt this law will cause.

      Yep, this is a GREAT bill alright, lol.

  4. Kathleen Cochran profile image81
    Kathleen Cochranposted 11 months ago

    "Die-hard supporters"?  You mean people who do not want to admit what a mistake they made putting him in office.

    1. profile image0
      ahorsebackposted 11 months agoin reply to this

      Kathleen , you are one of the truly blind ones of the obstruction class . Explain to us all again just where the "Progress" part  is in the Progressive Left ?

      Oh  , you  are a believer in the "cost " of tax cuts right ?

      1. My Esoteric profile image93
        My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

        Progressive is:
        - creating a public school system
        - creating a public library system
        - ending slavery
        - giving blacks the right to vote
        - giving women the right to vote
        - making it easier for EVERYONE to vote, not just whites
        - providing true Civil Rights to blacks after conservatives took them away after reconstruction was over

        1. Randy Godwin profile image94
          Randy Godwinposted 11 months agoin reply to this

          I don't think your list would be considered improvements or achievements by him, Eso.

          1. My Esoteric profile image93
            My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

            I have posted that list before and conservatives had the audacity to try to take credit for it (forgetting of course that until 1929, conservatism and Democrats were synonymous. As time past conservatism became synonymous with Republicans and Southern Democrats,  The transition completed itself in the mid-1990s when Southern Ds were either defeated or switched parties)

    2. My Esoteric profile image93
      My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

      Yep, those are the ones alright Kathleen.

  5. profile image0
    ahorsebackposted 11 months ago

    How much does it cost to realign the previously Obama, administrated and then doubled  national debt ?  Does anyone fail to envision a little slack in the "train car effect " for a few years down the road ?   

    Or do you all expect Trump to write a personal check to China for Oh, $20 trillion or so, therefore paying for all our debts and Obama's too , kind of like donating his presidential salary ?

    1. My Esoteric profile image93
      My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

      I need to correct your revisionist history.  The Truth is the Deficit/Debt started skyrocketing in 2008. It started its rapid increase from the accumulated effects of the Bush tax cuts (without corresponding increase in growth) and his two wars. They quickly accelerated with the effects of automatic economic stabilizers kicking in as the result of his recession.  The final push was Obama's response in trying to stop a depression from happening.  This rapid increase stopped in early 2011.

      Now, explain this history for me.  The public debt started increasing in earnest with Reagan at the beginning of 1982,

      - from 1982 - 1994, Public Debt increased at an annual rate of 12.6%

      - from 1994 - 2001, Public Debt increased at an annual rate of an incredibly low of 3.2%

      - from 2001 - 2008 (Q2), before Obama was elected and had any chance to influence the course, it grew at an annual rate of 7.3%

      - from 2008 - 2011, it grew at 13.7% (not far from Reagan's record)

      - finally, and this sort of deflates your assertion, from 2011 - 2017(Q3) Obama obtained the second LOWEST growth of 5.6% (MUCH better than Bush, isn't it).

      How do you explain that Bush did worse than Obama when it comes to increasing the Public Debt?

      Oh, BTW, how do you account for the fact that China accounts for so Little of Public Debt.  While they do own 30% of all debt held by foreign nations, they account for ONLY 6% of the total Treasury bills, notes, and bonds outstanding.  Not so big is it now?

      1. profile image0
        ahorsebackposted 11 months agoin reply to this

        Weww, what a line ,You call me a revisionist ?  O-b-a-m-a  can you spell?

      2. wilderness profile image97
        wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

        "- finally, and this sort of deflates your assertion, from 2011 - 2017(Q3) Obama obtained the second LOWEST growth of 5.6% (MUCH better than Bush, isn't it)."

        Uh, no.  It isn't much better than Bush.  Don't forget, if Obama hadn't doubled the debt prior to that it would have grown at double the rate, or 11%.  WITHOUT having to fight two wars.  And you might mention that after his years of Trillion dollar deficits, Obama managed to squeeze just one year under the otherwise highest deficit ever recorded, albeit it by only $20B, - the rest of his tenure saw it climb rapidly once more.

        1. profile image0
          ahorsebackposted 11 months agoin reply to this

          How anyone defends Obama's spending habits is far , far beyond the left's  sense of alt-reality .   From George Washington  and 42 more presidents later to G.W Bush's
          combined , he topped them all and we still get to pay for his retirement !

          There was no Obama  intent there but the economic destruction of America I guess , along with constitutional destruction , race-relation  accomplishment destruction , the annihilation  of our foreign policy  achievements , etc.........

          1. wilderness profile image97
            wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

            Now, now.  The only known tactic to end a recession is to spend our way out of it, and he did that with a vengeance.  Of course, he kept spending, but for that one year he followed tried and true methods that DID work.

            Shame we didn't get anything out of that spending though.  Past time we worked on infrastructure, built up the military, etc.  Obama just threw it away.

            1. profile image0
              ahorsebackposted 11 months agoin reply to this

              Someone should do a comprehensive study one day of his economic wastes ?  I'll bet anything   no republican could even match it for his spending habits .
              I mean , How does anyone double the national debt ?

              A unemployed social worker doing a REAL presidents job ?

              1. My Esoteric profile image93
                My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                I don't know, ahorseback, try asking asking Reagan-Bush I who TRIPLED it or asking Bush II why he caused the Great 2008 Recession that (plus is tax cut and wars) is the root cause of it.  After Obama solved the recession, his rate of debt increase is half that of Bush II and almost 4 times LESS than Reagan-Bush (and they didn't have a major recession to blame it on, it was all their doing).

                Why aren't you castigating them who did a terrible job rather than criticize the man who saved America from arguably the worst depression in history.  You ought to be kissing his feet out of gratitude.

                As to unemployed social worker (which is a lie of course since he was never unemployed) you trust a neophyte president who has a habit of bankrupting most things he touches. (The only business successes #UnpresidentTrump  has is selling his name to others who actually do the work of running the business while he takes the credit.)

                1. wilderness profile image97
                  wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                  Which added more $$ to the debt?  The 16 years combined of Reagan/Bush or the 8 years under the "spend it all!" president - Obama?  You can even adjust for inflation if you wish.

                  1. My Esoteric profile image93
                    My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                    There you go again, wilderness, trying to pull a fast one over a mathematician.  As ALL mathematicians know, it isn't the Size that matters, it is the RELATIVE size and as a percent of WHERE THEY STARTED, the Reagan-Bush team spent TWICE as much as Obama.

                    (Yes, I made an arithmetical error in my calculations.  The real numbers for rate of increase in debt is Reagan-Bush - 8.4%; Clinton-1.6%;  Bush-4.4%; Obama (minus the Bush recession)-4.6%; and the recession-12.7%)

                2. profile image0
                  ahorsebackposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                  Congratulations , the left has actually  turned the day into the night of economic-political reality ,  Obama shuffling  into office 10 Trillion , and running  out 20 Trillion  ? But somehow to you that was a savings , uh huh ?    I have some swamp I'd like to give you ,  free .  Just pay the fifty thou in  closing costs please ?

            2. My Esoteric profile image93
              My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

              "... Of course, he kept spending,... "  Try backing that up with some meaningful data, then people might believe you.  As it is now, it is just an opinion piece.

              1. wilderness profile image97
                wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                http://usgovernmentspending.com/federal … chart.html

                I'd say running an ever increasing series of deficits, deficits greater than we had ever seen, is indicative of spending, wouldn't you?  Or does it not count if he just gives it away rather than purchasing something for the nation?

                1. My Esoteric profile image93
                  My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                  Show me how the deficits were "ever increasing" when they weren't after 2011 when they became "ever decreasing" until 2017.

                  And since it is Congress that appropriates money, it is impossible for a president to give anything away.  I presume you knew that or do you have #UnpresidentTrump's lack of knowledge of how gov't works to?

                  1. wilderness profile image97
                    wildernessposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                    Increasing...after he got off of the trillion dollar per year kick.  They dropped to something half that or less, then began rising once more.  All while remaining higher than ever seen before in this country.

                    Aren't you blaming Trump for the perceived deficits 10 years from now?  Isn't that how it works - blame the president for everything?

                2. My Esoteric profile image93
                  My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

                  BTW, did you even look at the your chart?  It shows decreasing deficits throughout MOST of Obama's presidency, why is that?  Could it be he did a great job?

          2. My Esoteric profile image93
            My Esotericposted 11 months agoin reply to this

            You do understand don't you , ahorseback, that your hyperbole is based on alt-facts. You have virtually no reliable, provable, facts to justify your positions.

  6. Randy Godwin profile image94
    Randy Godwinposted 11 months ago

    Toldyaso, Eso! No answer at all. lol

    1. profile image0
      ahorsebackposted 11 months agoin reply to this

      There is no answer that would be understandable to a post like above , such incredible nonsense .   

      Can't reason with unreasonable minds .

  7. Randy Godwin profile image94
    Randy Godwinposted 11 months ago

    I understood your post easily, Eso. Point made! smile

 
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