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In the 2012 Election Democrats lost some of the women's/ Asian's/Latino's votes. How's it looking?
In 2016, in addition to getting some of those votes back, the Democrats need to maintain their percentage of African American voters. Meanwhile, some of the young adult voters are less excited now than they were in 2012. What is your snapshot of Election 2016 looking like at this point in time?
Maybe if the media and the pollsters really try hard they can continue to help separate voters along age, gender and race lines. For some reason I doubt it. Maybe a fringe element in the single digit percentage points votes along those lines because of their group they have been placed in.
The stat boys are doing it backwards if they are looking for impetus to vote. What they are doing is extrapolating how groups vote and falsely attributing why people vote a certain way.
I think it would be fun to put boxing gloves on runners at the line right before the race so they could duke it out to see who gets to actually start the race, just like our presidential contenders right now.
Obama in 2012 vs Romney compared to Obama in 2008 vs. McCain may have had less support from these groups, that does not mean that the overall tendency for these groups to lean Democratic has lessened.
The Obama 'drop-off' is partly because the historic nature of his candidacy led to a spike of support from several different groups in 2008. It was also in part that Romney, in my opinion, was a stronger candidate than McCain, and Obama was weaker than his previous campaign.
So let's take a look at overall Democratic support. The following numbers show those who lean democratic vs. republican for different groups from 2004-2014. Data from here: http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/ … 1992-2014/
Women: 50/38 (2004), 54/32 (2008), 51/36 (2012), 52/36 (2014)
Blacks: 80/9 (2004), 81/8 (2008), 84/9 (2012), 80/11 (2014)
Hispanics: 50/23 (2006), 64/23 (2008), 57/24 (2012), 56/26 (2014)
Asians: no data (2004), 57/25 (2008), 59/27 (2012), 65/23 (2014)
Millenials: 50/37 (2004), 55/30 (2008), 53/33 (2012), 51/35 (2014)
So there was that spike in 2008 that makes it seem like support fell off in 2012. The reality is that the tendency to lean Democratic for all of those groups is the same or higher then it was in 2004.
Even if the Republicans were serious about winning and serious about actually governing this country, I don't think they have a chance. They just don't have the numbers and for some reason seem oblivious to the fact that popularity contests require popularity.
But no party that has Trump out in front is serious about winning or governing. At this point they are just the punchline of a really bad joke.
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