Are Trump's Claims About Tariffs Hurting America True?

1. 84

   My Esotericposted 6 years ago

   The short answer is no!  According to http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/08/news/ec … index.html tariffs worldwide are the Lowest in history.  Here are some numbers to play with:
   - Average (until Trump) American tariffs on imports 2.4%
   - Average (until Trump) Canadian tariffs on imports: 3.1%
   - Average (until Trump) EU tariffs on imports: 3.0%
   Granted, when it comes to specific industries, mainly agriculture, tariffs can be very high such as the American tariff on tobacco imports at 350% or 150% on a variety of peanuts.
   
   Back in the time of Adam Smith and his "Wealth of Nations", nations used tariffs as a form of bloodless war (no hyperbole).  It was why he did his research and concluded ONLY free-trade can lead to sustained economic growth for all.  Effectively, until Trump, the world achieved that.
   
   Trump claims that "unfair" tariffs by other countries on America are leading to "huge" trade deficits in America.  THEY DON'T!!! Consumer preference and wealth is responsible for most US's trade imbalance.  In fact, even though Trump knows this NOT to be true, America DOES NOT have a trade deficit with Canada and the EU.  IF FACT, we have a combined trade SURPLUS of $14 billion!!!!  Why is he not telling the truth?
   
   The huge trade deficit (yes, it is big) with China is mostly driven by Americans' desire for cheap goods made in China.  Making it worse, of course, is China's predatory subsidies (like solar panels) of certain products and similar anti-free trade moves (the money manipulation, btw, is largely history)
   
   The truth is, trade deficits do not help OR HARM our economy so long as they remain reasonable.  It is also true that trade deficits with any specific country has even LESS impact on America's economic health.  To the degree that it even matters, it is the AVERAGE tariffs or deficits that has any meaning at all. 
   
   All Trump is doing is playing on his bases ignorance of economic matters by feeding them red meat and created an issue that simply doesn't exist.  In the process he is hurting the very people who voted for him and the rest of the world.
   
   [TO BE FAIR - I must note that it is his far-Right base AND the far-Left that agree with him.  For the same economic reasons, they are both very wrong about deficits and trade. On THIS economic issue, somewhat Right and mainstream Republicans and moderates have it right and always have.]

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2. 84

   My Esotericposted 6 years ago

   Another piece of information to consider.
   
   Assume Mexico puts tariffs on pork, which they did, and the grains that feed pork, which they say they will.  Well sell lots of both to Mexico. What happens.
   
   1. Prices for these products go up in Mexico
   2. Demand for these products will go down in the short-term and maybe medium-term
   3. Prices that pork and grain farmers will decrease
   4. Pork production will decrease
   5. Grain production will decrease even further because along with Mexico, pork producers will stop buying grain as well.
   6. To off-load increasing inventories, grain and pork producers will lower their prices
   7. With lower prices, American consumers may buy more, increasing demand and raising prices
   8. Everything else being equal (which it never is) prices for pork and grain will stabilize at some point below where they were before the tariff.
   
   Winners - American consumers and foreign producers of pork and grain
   Losers - Mexican public because they are paying higher prices and American farmers.

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      Randy Godwinposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      What this means is Trump doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground about world trade.  No one is guaranteed a trade surplus as this depends on a variety of things a particular county can offer tp the world market.  There will always be those who offer the best deal.

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      1. 84

         My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         Yep, see, being a so-called "business man" isn't a qualification to run the biggest economy in the world. Education, a willingness to learn, a willingness to read, a willingness to understand details, an ability to reason, an ability to see the big picture, an ability articulate intelligently, an ability to be empathetic, an ability to ... AND TRUMP is NONE of those things.

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         1. 0

            ahorsebackposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            MyEsoteric , Trump understands the most basic of successful  business economics and so international business economics ,  it there is no "bottom line "  there is no sense in doing business at all .   But somehow YOU think you know more than he  does ?  Uh huh !  Have run business'  I can tell you he knows but of course you know he knows more than you yet decided long ago to wear the colored glasses of TDS .
            
            If "all politics is local "   is true and it is , then all economics is certainly local . There is one word in the business management world that really matters , and only government employees are essentially  ignorant of it , PROFIT .
            Trump knows that word , profit and it's his most important trade tool .
            YOU are  blinded by your personal hatred of Trump . I'm glad you're not any part of trade negotiations .

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            1. 84

               My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

               Exactly what, ahorseback, does "Trump understands the most basic of successful  business economics and so international business economics ,  it there is no "bottom line "  there is no sense in doing business at all ." have to do with anything at all.
               
               It is very apparent I know a lot more about economics than Trump does.   
               - I study and read a lot about economics
               - Trump hardly reads anything but a teleprompter. 
               -  Courtesy of the United States Air Force, I am a Professional Cost and - - -Economic Analyst and spent 20 years practicing it.
               - Trump made his money in the business of branding his name and as a reality show host while bankrupting at least six casinos and other businesses he tried his hand at
               
               Yes, I have run a multimillion dollar business for 18 years; have you?
               
               Politics does not equal economics and no, save for some minor exceptions, no economy is local anymore, it is a global intersection of competing interests.
               
               Ask his six +  bankrupt companies if Trump knows a think about PROFIT.
               
               I don't hate Trump, but he sure disgusts me.

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            2. 84

               My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

               BTW, Why, if your Supreme Commander Trump is such an economic Whiz Kid why must he LIE about the size of the deficit with the EU and Canada???  Doesn't his TV anchor economic adviser tell him the actual TRUTH is we have a combined trade SURPLUS of $14 billion!!!!  Why is he not telling the truth?. Is TerribleTrump's math abilities so weak that he can't tell the difference between a positive and a negative?
               
               A better question is Why does NPD Trump find it necessary to LIE or make MOSTLY FALSE or TOTALLY FALSE statements and average of NINE TIMES A DAY?  OH Yeah, I forget, estrangement from the truth is on of the nine characteristics of narcissistic personality disorder.

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         2. 59

            Randy Godwinposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            As many lawsuits and bankruptcies as Spanky has in his past, his refusal to actually prove his success in business, and his inability to get financing in his own country because of his past. "great deals", should be a hint as to his actual business smarts. 

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            1. 84

               My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

               Yes, there is that to, Randy.  Trump could be just a massive pyramid scheme built on Russian Oligarch money.  Wasn't Bernie Madoff very rich before he got busted?
               I have a feeling when Mueller is done, Trump is going to spend many years behind NY State bars, something neither he nor Pence can pardon him from.

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               1. 59

                  Randy Godwinposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                  I hope you're correct, Eso! Couldn't happen to a greasier guy!

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   2. 91

      wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      While you gave average tariffs for other locations (Canada and the EU) you never mentioned those of the US.  Is the average comparable to those locations, higher or lower (prior to anything Trump did, of course)?  As a major trading partner, those of Japan, Korea and China would be interesting as well, along with our tariff on their goods.

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      1. 84

         My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         - Average (until Trump) American tariffs on imports 2.4%
         - Average (until Trump) Canadian tariffs on imports: 3.1%
         - Average (until Trump) EU tariffs on imports: 3.0%
         - Average (until Trump) Japan tariffs on imports: 1.4%
         - Average (until Trump) China tariffs on imports: 3.5%
         - Average (until Trump) South Korea tariffs on imports: 7.9%
         Granted, when it comes to specific industries, mainly agriculture, tariffs can be very high such as the American tariff on tobacco imports at 350% or 150% on a variety of peanuts.  The high SK tariff is driven by agricultural products
         
         Those are the current rates before the Trump-effect is known.

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         1. 91

            wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            Roughly speaking then, Pre Trump we were on the losing end by something ranging from -50% (one country) to 300%.  I would have to say that it is hurting the country.
            
            Wonder why Japan's is so low.  Because they export half again to the US as they import?

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            ahorsebackposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            Now why don't you do a list of the HIGHER  tariffs charged by other countries ?  If we're going to do the numbers , lets do them ALL?
            
            ex.Canada charges  270% tariffs on US. dairy goods  .

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            1. 84

               My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

               Because TerribleTrump is not putting tariffs on the ones I mentioned.  WHY, if they are as you say, Trump isn't attacking them too??
               
               But, in case you are interested, which I doubt, you could have EASILY googled this and found https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM … _desc=true

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