One Big Beautiful Bill or a Ball of BS?

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  1. Willowarbor profile image60
    Willowarborposted 3 months ago

    On Tuesday, Trump lauded a House budget blueprint that may enable Congress to pass much of his legislative agenda in what he called “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL.” That budget, which passed a committee vote and could hit the House floor as soon as next week, lays out targets for legislation that would extend tax cuts and increase the federal deficit. It would also almost certainly make major cuts to programs that serve the poor.


    https://hubstatic.com/17390393_f1024.jpg

    The Cuts

    Medicaid is likely to be the largest target for cuts to achieve the $880 billion in budget savings set out in the legislation.

    But the committee also has the ability to include cuts to Medicare, and may also be able to find some savings by reversing Biden-era regulations.

    Education and Work Force
    Cut by at least $330 billion...
    The instructions could require cuts to nearly half of all spending on programs the committee can consider.

    The biggest category of spending for the committee is school nutrition programs. The budget document also suggested some cuts to school breakfasts, and to lunch programs for schools that serve low-income children. 

    Agriculture
    Cut by at least $230 billion
    The bulk of the spending overseen by the committee is on food benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and most of the rest is on farm programs like crop insurance. If the cuts hit the programs overseen by the committee equally, it would amount to a 13 percent cut. If they were directed to SNAP alone, that would amount to a 21 percent cut.

    Spending increases:

    The budget also includes a small amount of increased spending, primarily focused on border security and the military. 

    The largest spending item:

    Tax cuts

    Up to $4.5 trillion in tax reductions
    Extending $4 trillion in expiring tax cuts passed during the first Trump administration represents the biggest policy priority in the bill, both in emphasis and dollars.

    The budget would allow the tax-writing Ways and Means committee to decrease federal revenue by as much as $4.5 trillion over a decade, an allowance that may mean new tax cuts, too.

    The tax cut extension  benefits the wealthiest taxpayers the most, in raw dollars and as a share of their income.

    Deficits and debt

    Because the tax cuts and spending increases significantly outweigh the spending cuts in the budget, it would directly add $2.8 trillion to deficits over the next 10 years. (It could ultimately add an estimated $3.4 trillion to the national debt because of the costs associated with increased borrowing.) Tables released with the House bill assume aggressive economic growth that would help cover the bulk of this increase, but budget experts say the assumptions are unrealistic.

    Also included in the bill: a $4 trillion increase to the debt limit.

    For me, This budget plan reflects a stark betrayal of Trump’s campaign promises to protect families who struggle financially while providing tax windfalls for the wealthy...

    1. Credence2 profile image81
      Credence2posted 3 months agoin reply to this

      “For me, This budget plan reflects a stark betrayal of Trump’s campaign promises to protect families who struggle financially while providing tax windfalls for the wealthy...”


      We could all have seen this months before Trumps election without looking. Many of the dupes that voted for him will feel the pain as this budget will adversely affect them. It will be no less than what they deserve. The only sad part is that innocents will be within the blast radius.

      So much for the BS of the Republicans being the fiscally responsible party…..

      1. Willowarbor profile image60
        Willowarborposted 3 months agoin reply to this

        Doge running around indiscriminately slashing at programs and agencies is all in service of making this ludicrous budget seem palatable to people.   I think it will fail in this form. Republicans are already quivering in their boots to bring this garbage to their constituents.   We will see what they will be able to get over on the American people .   The resistance is growing though.

        1. Credence2 profile image81
          Credence2posted 3 months agoin reply to this

          The resistance is growing though.

          Cheer me up, where do you see resistance?

          1. Willowarbor profile image60
            Willowarborposted 3 months agoin reply to this

            Well we  have  some Republicans voicing concerns, going on record opposing the drastic cuts to Medicaid.   And in the last few days there has been quite a backlash at Town Halls in Republican districts.  The representatives are being blindsided by angry constituents that are spilling over into overflow rooms.  Lots of heated exchanges concerning Musk's role, Trump's overreach and broken promises. 

            Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) faced a large and testy audience at a town hall on Thursday, with Reps. Cliff Bentz (R-Ore.), Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) and Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wis.) also getting heated questioning.
            Swing-district Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) and Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) all had demonstrations outside their offices.

            A lot of folks saying we didn't vote for THIS


            https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre … rcna193164

            https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-ra … al-2034011

    2. tsmog profile image83
      tsmogposted 3 months agoin reply to this

      Adding to with what I have read recently

      House Budget Allows At Least $2.8 Trillion of Deficit Increases by The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (Feb 21, 2025)
      https://www.crfb.org/blogs/house-budget … -increases

      "The House of Representatives will soon consider a budget resolution for Fiscal Year (FY) 2025, which was reported favorably out of the House Budget Committee on February 13. The budget’s reconciliation instructions pave the way for a bill that could add at least $2.8 trillion to deficits through FY 2034, or $3.4 to $4 trillion of debt including interest costs.

      In this piece, we explain that:

      ** The marked-up House budget allows lawmakers to add at least $2.8 trillion to deficits through FY 2034 or $3.4 trillion including interest.

      ** As a result of this debt increase, debt held by the public would reach 125 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by FY 2034, compared with 117 percent under current law.

      ** Deficits under the House budget would average 6.8 percent of GDP over the decade, compared with 5.8 percent under current law.

      https://usercontent2.hubstatic.com/17390433_f520.jpg

  2. Sharlee01 profile image84
    Sharlee01posted 3 months ago

    This entire rant is built on speculation, assumptions, and worst-case scenario predictions without actual evidence. First, Trump has been in office for only a month, and none of these proposed changes have been enacted. A House budget blueprint is not the same as actual legislation, and Congress still has to negotiate and pass any spending plans. Claiming that this budget is a "betrayal" of Trump's promises is premature at best and disingenuous at worst.

    The claim that Medicaid will face massive cuts is based on a general budget outline, not finalized policy. The reality is that budget plans often suggest potential savings, but that doesn't mean every proposed cut will happen as written. Similarly, the claim that school nutrition programs will be slashed is another assumption. There’s a huge difference between suggesting budget adjustments and gutting essential services. The idea that Trump’s administration is going after low-income school lunches is an emotional appeal rather than a factual argument.

    The tax cuts argument is also misleading. Tax relief is a fundamental part of Trump’s economic plan, designed to stimulate growth and benefit businesses and workers alike. The notion that tax cuts only benefit the wealthy ignores how they impact job creation, wages, and investment. Moreover, projections about deficits and debt are based on economic models that often fail to account for the positive effects of economic expansion. Trump’s policies in his first term led to significant economic growth, and similar strategies are being pursued again.

    This entire critique assumes that Trump's supporters didn’t expect him to pursue these policies. That’s simply not true. His base elected him precisely because they wanted tax cuts, stronger border security, and economic policies that prioritize growth over government handouts. Jumping to conclusions about what will happen a decade from now while ignoring the full legislative process is nothing more than political fearmongering. Let’s deal with actual results, not doomsday predictions.  Your OP offers no soucres.

    1. Credence2 profile image81
      Credence2posted 3 months agoin reply to this

      Do you take issue with the data presented by Willow? Being factual and looking at the big picture, only you are saying that it is "emotional". Prove that the information she presented is incorrect before an attack on its content. Why is it wrong beyond your just saying so?

      1. wilderness profile image77
        wildernessposted 3 months agoin reply to this

        Doesn't everyone (take issue with the "data")?  Does anyone, even you and Willow, actually believe that Trump will reduce income twice what he reduced spending, after making such an issue of cutting our deficit?

        1. Credence2 profile image81
          Credence2posted 3 months agoin reply to this

          Where is your evidence to refute it or is just more of YOUR OPINION?

          1. wilderness profile image77
            wildernessposted 3 months agoin reply to this

            My opinion?  I merely asked if anyone could believe the fairy story, with no indication that it was not true.

            How about you?  Do you actually think Trump has that in mind?  I mean yes, TDS may be strong, but it doesn't take a genius to understand that it won't work...and regardless of TDS Trump is not stupid.

            1. Credence2 profile image81
              Credence2posted 3 months agoin reply to this

              "How about you?  Do you actually think Trump has that in mind?  I mean yes, TDS may be strong, but it doesn't take a genius to understand that it won't work...and regardless of TDS Trump is not stupid."

              I don't trust anything Trump says. Trump is stupid in my opinion. I am going to trust the New York Times data over fabrications from Trump and the Right.

      2. Sharlee01 profile image84
        Sharlee01posted 3 months agoin reply to this

        "Do you take issue with the data presented by Willow? Being factual and looking at the big picture, only you are saying that it is "emotional". Prove that the information she presented is incorrect before an attack on its content. Why is it wrong beyond your just saying so?" Cred

        I take issue when statistics are quoted without a source or when someone presents them as their own view. I have no problem with opinions on a given subject or sourced data that can be critiqued, especially when it comes to budget predictions. Not all economists are created equal—history has shown that many left-leaning economists predicted Biden would have a stellar economy, and we’ve seen how that turned out. I don’t need to prove anything—that’s Willow’s job. I didn’t attack her view; I debated it and presented a different perspective. You ask, “Why is it wrong beyond your just saying so?” Well, why is hers right just because she said so? It’s clear that Willow and I have very different mindsets, and frankly, it seems you align much more closely with her perspective, as shown by the analogy I just shared.

        1. Credence2 profile image81
          Credence2posted 3 months agoin reply to this

          https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … print.html

          Sharlee, you have to excuse me for favoring the information as presented by the "Grey Lady", New York Times, a professional and credible source of journalism, over the contrary opinions of Wilderness and yourself, which you can't  or won't substantiate. Her "say so" is more correct than yours because it is supported by a reputable journalistic source, where's yours?

          Beware, there may well be a formidable pay wall between you and the article.

          I am satisfied with the direction the economy was taking during the Biden term and identify what negatives there were to the term of his predecessor. But, again that is just my opinion

          And, yes, I share her perspectives in this matter and see Trump as a total fraud.

          So, where's the beef, Sharlee?

          1. wilderness profile image77
            wildernessposted 3 months agoin reply to this

            You may have been satisfied with falling real incomes, with inflation going back up, with a gradual (or sometimes quick) decrease in our standard of living under Biden.

            Most of us were not.

          2. Sharlee01 profile image84
            Sharlee01posted 3 months agoin reply to this

            "Sharlee, you have to excuse me for favoring the information as presented by the "Grey Lady", New York Times, a professional and credible source of journalism, over the contrary opinions of Wilderness and yourself, which you can't  or won't substantiate." Cred


            Where are you going with this? Talk about a diversion... I never questioned the author's credibility as a journalist.  The article was an NYT op-ed—keyword, 'op-ed.' I simply debated the viewpoint. and lacked sources. Keyword debated.

            Here is my comment regarding the article--- I take issue when statistics are quoted without a source or when someone presents them as their own view. I have no problem with opinions on a given subject or source data that can be critiqued, especially when it comes to budget predictions. Not all economists are created equal—history has shown that many left-leaning economists predicted Biden would have a stellar economy, and we’ve seen how that turned out.  Sharlee

            I have no beef--- In my view, some here have come to not respect any form of debate where others share their views that conflict. My re[ly to Willows OP was nothing but a very, actually lightweight debate.  It is hard to communicate with the leftists here on HPs. Just my view, but some don't want to debate.  This is very, how can I even say this, odd.

  3. Willowarbor profile image60
    Willowarborposted 3 months ago

    What happened to no tax on tips and no tax on social security? Did I miss something or those things didn't make it into the budget?

  4. Willowarbor profile image60
    Willowarborposted 3 months ago

    Odd?

    This is not an opinion piece  where am I missing that it was labeled as such?

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … print.html

    You are certainly welcome to debate the points raised in the article.  Certainly welcome to provide anything that refutes those points.

    1. Sharlee01 profile image84
      Sharlee01posted 3 months agoin reply to this

      Could you add sources that dictate facts? I am not interested in the predictions represented. This is why the piece is an OP. It represents views, of what could come from economists. The article you posted presents a perspective on what COULD happen if the House successfully passes the proposed bill containing Trump's agenda, but it doesn’t reflect any form of reality that has or will fully come to fruition.

      It's essentially speculative, outlining the potential provisions and consequences, an 'if come". The article provides an analysis based on current discussions, views, and proposed plans, but until the bill passes and is enacted, it remains a prediction or outlook on what might come to be. And as I mentioned we saw all these types of predictions in Bidens first weeks, and before each of his legislation was passed--- we all know how off the predictions were. That is those that followed predictions.

      1. Willowarbor profile image60
        Willowarborposted 3 months agoin reply to this

        What source do you find acceptable?

        The First source from the New York times, did not offer predictions it simply outlined what was in the bill.  Which coincides with every other source I've seen .

        Since when do we not follow the predictions of experts?

        1. Sharlee01 profile image84
          Sharlee01posted 3 months agoin reply to this

          When one presents nothing but what could happen, on a bill that no one has seen, that is called predicting. When one predicts they share their opinion. The NYT posts a large majority of OP's.

          I visited your thread, I joined in and critiqued then debated the NYT article.--- Here is my first post, in which my context indicates I sharing my view. ----

          This entire rant is built on speculation, assumptions, and worst-case scenario predictions without actual evidence. First, Trump has been in office for only a month, and none of these proposed changes have been enacted. A House budget blueprint is not the same as actual legislation, and Congress still has to negotiate and pass any spending plans. Claiming that this budget is a "betrayal" of Trump's promises is premature at best and disingenuous at worst.

          The claim that Medicaid will face massive cuts is based on a general budget outline, not a finalized policy. The reality is that budget plans often suggest potential savings, but that doesn't mean every proposed cut will happen as written. Similarly, the claim that school nutrition programs will be slashed is another assumption. There’s a huge difference between suggesting budget adjustments and gutting essential services. The idea that Trump’s administration is going after low-income school lunches is an emotional appeal rather than a factual argument.

          The tax cuts argument is also misleading. Tax relief is a fundamental part of Trump’s economic plan, designed to stimulate growth and benefit businesses and workers alike. The notion that tax cuts only benefit the wealthy ignores how they impact job creation, wages, and investment. Moreover, projections about deficits and debt are based on economic models that often fail to account for the positive effects of economic expansion. Trump’s policies in his first term led to significant economic growth, and similar strategies are being pursued again.

          This entire critique assumes that Trump's supporters didn’t expect him to pursue these policies. That’s simply not true. His base elected him precisely because they wanted tax cuts, stronger border security, and economic policies that prioritized growth over government handouts. Jumping to conclusions about what will happen a decade from now while ignoring the full legislative process is nothing more than political fearmongering. Let’s deal with actual results, not doomsday predictions.  Your OP offers no soucres.

          You have yet to offer any sources that would indicate facts. yes, predictions were given, nothing more. It did offer what was being again predicted to be in the bill. As of February 23, 2025, President Donald Trump's proposed "big, beautiful bill" has not yet been formally introduced to Congress or the public.  The authors were working with pure speculation. Which is fine in an OP.  I did no more or less than debate their article. As my very first comment indicates.

          This is a political forum, when a thread is posted on any given subject it is up for debate or agreement.  Hey, Cred took the article as factual, as he shared in a reply.

          Regarding The New York Times or any news outlet—if an opinion piece (OP) in The New York Times is not a source itself, the author cannot simply say, "The NYT is my source" as a defense. The NYT publishes a range of opinions, many of which are not fact-based but instead rely on personal interpretation, speculation, or ideology.

          The article you posted was ultimately an opinion piece, speculating on what might be in the "Big Bill" and throwing out possible scenarios of what could happen. It was a hit piece—a “Hey, everybody, look what could happen!” piece, meant to stir up panic and get people wringing their hands.

          1. Willowarbor profile image60
            Willowarborposted 3 months agoin reply to this

            What organization would provide an accurate analysis in your opinion

            1. Sharlee01 profile image84
              Sharlee01posted 3 months agoin reply to this

              CONGRESS after the bill is presented. Maybe we wait for that... Or maybe just do what the NYT did write a hip piece.

              1. Willowarbor profile image60
                Willowarborposted 2 months agoin reply to this

                Congress relies on the CBO though... As, I believe, none of them are economists.  Sadly, many of them aren't very educated at all.

                1. Sharlee01 profile image84
                  Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

                  I will let you and Cred figure this all out.

              2. Willowarbor profile image60
                Willowarborposted 2 months agoin reply to this

                Trump's tax scheme didn't really work out very well during his first term though did it?   It really failed to deliver on its promises.  Why would we do something again that didn't work the first time?

                1. Sharlee01 profile image84
                  Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

                  I disagree, I did great under Trump's taxes. I will keep it that simple. You see how simple it can be to just disagree with another's view.

                  1. Willowarbor profile image60
                    Willowarborposted 2 months agoin reply to this

                    You must be in the top 10%?

                    "Evidence suggests that the TCJA's corporate tax changes failed to produce the promised investment or wage increases for the majority of U.S. workers. The benefits of the tax changes disproportionately favored high-income households and profitable corporations. Claims made by the Trump administration that the average household would see a substantial increase in income did not materialize. Research indicates that earnings did not significantly change for workers in the bottom 90% of the income distribution, while those in the top 10% saw  increase.

                    The TCJA's business tax changes have permanently reduced federal revenues. Claims that the tax plan would pay for itself have not been substantiated. Studies indicate that increases in economic activity only offset a small fraction of the revenue loss attributable to the tax cut.



                    https://hubstatic.com/17392641_f1024.jpg

                    CBO Finds TCJA Expirations Would Boost The Economy. (2024). https://taxpolicycenter.org/daily-deduc … st-economy

          2. Credence2 profile image81
            Credence2posted 3 months agoin reply to this

            Its about arithmetic, Sharlee not opinion. Is the breakout that was presented what Trump would prefer be the outcome of the legislative process? Whether he gets his wish or not is speculation, but he made it clear that that what was presented in the Times was his preference.

            And it certainly is not mine,....

            "On Tuesday, President Trump lauded a House budget blueprint that would enable Congress to pass much of his legislative agenda in what he called “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL.” That budget, which passed a committee vote and could hit the House floor as soon as next week, lays out targets for legislation that would extend tax cuts and increase the federal deficit. It would also almost certainly make major cuts to programs that serve the poor."

            Seems pretty clear cut to me, did I miss something?

            1. Sharlee01 profile image84
              Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

              Yes, you missed me just joining in and giving my view of an article. And it seems some are not willing to just leave it at that --- LOL Ya know liberals just can't take rejection of their views. That is not my problem. I took time to debate what I read. Hey,  I guess those who don't care for my view, could keep it simple ---  Just say ---"I don't like your view".

              No one can do the asthmatic until we see the numbers. No one has seen the bill. We can assume all over the place, but why do that? All about ringing hands... We think differently I don't wring my hands until I find a fact that would get me to wringing my hands.

  5. Willowarbor profile image60
    Willowarborposted 4 days ago

    Trump's big ugly  bill will raise taxes on poor Americans and raise costs for the rest of the working class, while disproportionately helping the richest Americans.

    This isn't a budget bill. It's a wealth transfer.

    This is what an oligarchy looks like.

    https://hubstatic.com/17498467_f1024.jpg

    Tax on tips? Still there.

    Tax on overtime? Still there.

    Tax on Social Security benefits? Still there.

    AND...ALMOST 13 MILLION people will lose health care to give billionaires another tax break.

    1. Sharlee01 profile image84
      Sharlee01posted 4 days agoin reply to this

      The claim that Trump's proposed “Big Beautiful Bill” is a “big ugly bill” designed to raise taxes on the poor and benefit the wealthy misrepresents the bill's actual provisions. Contrary to the assertion that taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits remain, the bill explicitly proposes eliminating federal taxes on tips and overtime pay, a move that would directly benefit millions of working-class Americans, particularly in service industries and among law enforcement officers, nurses, and hourly laborers. Additionally, while it does not entirely eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, it introduces an extra $4,000 deduction for seniors over 65, offering some tax relief to retirees rather than targeting them for higher taxes. These are not the actions of a bill aimed at harming the working class.

      Labeling the bill a “wealth transfer” and evidence of “oligarchy” ignores the broader scope of its tax relief measures and frames the debate in misleading terms. While the wealthiest Americans may also see tax benefits, just as they did under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the idea that only the rich benefit is false. According to analyses of past Trump-era tax policy, over 80% of Americans received some form of tax cut, and similar patterns are likely under this proposal, especially with new provisions targeted at wage earners.

      On May 18, the House Budget Committee advanced a budget reconciliation bill to meet spending targets aimed at funding President Trump’s domestic priorities, that includes significant changes to the Medicaid program. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill would decrease the federal deficit by more than the $880 billion over 10 years that was called for by the budget resolution passed by Congress in April. CBO preliminary estimates show that the Medicaid provisions would reduce the deficit by $625 billion over ten years and increase the number of people without health insurance by at least 7.6 million by 2034.  https://www.kff.org/tracking-the-medica … hatgpt.com

      Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” offers clear tax relief to workers in the form of eliminating taxes on tips and overtime and reducing the burden on seniors. While legitimate concerns may exist about healthcare funding or debt impact, the sweeping claim that this is purely a handout to billionaires while punishing the working class does not hold up under factual scrutiny. The bill contains targeted relief aimed specifically at middle- and lower-income Americans, exactly the opposite of what critics are alleging.

      1. Willowarbor profile image60
        Willowarborposted 4 days agoin reply to this

        Social security tax cuts have absolutely not been included in this budget bill.   

        Can I ask folks, how much this bill will increases the national debt and deficit?

        "The bill contains targeted relief aimed specifically at middle- and lower-income Americans, exactly the opposite of what critics are alleging.

        What is that relief exactly?I haven't seen any analysis that shows a benefit for the middle and lower class>. The benefits are absolutely skewed toward top earners. 

        In terms of medicaid, having millions of people with no coverage is a benefit? How? How will their needs be dealt with?

        Also, what has not been mentioned is the fact that millions more are expected to lose coverage as a result of codified changes to the Affordable Care Act  and the failure to extend ACA subsidies.

        Aside from Maga talking points, which non partisan tax or economic organizations are supporting this bill as a benefit to the country?

        Trump says this  tax bill will help all Americans but literally every study say low earners would pay the price.

        1. wilderness profile image77
          wildernessposted 4 days agoin reply to this

          Top earners are top taxpayers, paying the most tax.  They absolutely should get the bulk of the benefits - anything else is just more wealth distribution you complained about.

          1. Willowarbor profile image60
            Willowarborposted 4 days agoin reply to this

            You've skirted the question. Why should a higher income earner get to keep more of what they make versus the lower income earner?

    2. wilderness profile image77
      wildernessposted 4 days agoin reply to this

      "This isn't a budget bill. It's a wealth transfer."

      You mean that the wealth transfer, using socialistic principles, that has been going on for decades now is finally going to be reversed and the people that earned and own the wealth get to keep a little more of it? 

      How can anyone be upset about that...except those that demand someone else pay for their wants and needs.

      1. Willowarbor profile image60
        Willowarborposted 4 days agoin reply to this

        Under what kind of logic makes it okay that people who make millions per year get to keep more of that income and people who make under $50,000 a year don't get to keep more of their income?

        1. wilderness profile image77
          wildernessposted 4 days agoin reply to this

          Under what kind of logic makes it okay to take 70% of what one person earns and zero from another, then giving that 70% to give to the one not paying taxes? 

          How about we each pay a fixed amount, all buying the same thing (citizenship) and paying the same thing for it?  You want "fair" - that's as fair as you can get.

  6. Willowarbor profile image60
    Willowarborposted 4 days ago
  7. Willowarbor profile image60
    Willowarborposted 3 days ago

    CBO Confirms GOP Budget Bill Triggers Medicare Cuts...

    According to the CBO, the bill's addition to the deficit would trigger a process known as sequestration under the Statutory Pay‑As‑You‑Go  Act of 2010.

    Unless lawmakers offset the deficit impact of the Republican bill or agree to waive the PAYGO requirements—which the GOP measure does not do—the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) "would be required to issue a sequestration order not more than 14 days after the end of the current session of Congress (excluding weekends and holidays) to reduce spending by $230 billion in fiscal year 2026," the CBO said.

    Under PAYGO, automatic Medicare cuts are capped at 4%. The CBO estimates that the Republican legislation would trigger roughly $45 billion in Medicare cuts in 2026 and a total of $490 billion in cuts to the program between 2027 and 2034...

    This is what Republicans do best, right?  pay for massive tax breaks for billionaires by going after programs families rely on the most: Medicaid, food assistance, and now Medicare.

    https://democrats-budget.house.gov/news … 20Betrayal

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/top-house-de … 15926.html

    1. Sharlee01 profile image84
      Sharlee01posted 3 days agoin reply to this

      "
      Estimated budgetary effects of a bill to provide for reconciliation pursuant to title II of H. Con. Res. 14., the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as ordered reported by the House Committee on the Budget on May 18, 2025. CBO HAS NOT reviewed the legislation for effects on spending subject to appropriation and has not yet completed estimates of the effects of interactions among titles of the legislation. "  CBO
      https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61420?u … hatgpt.com

      Perhaps it is wiser to wait and see the bottom line, and not make a prediction on the bottom line.

      CBO Limitations / Misses
      Economic Forecasting Errors:
      Like all forecasters, the CBO struggles to accurately predict recessions, booms, or unexpected geopolitical events. For example:

      It underestimated the strength of the recovery after the 2008 crash.

      It overestimated economic growth and productivity in several 10-year outlooks, especially post-2014. Their record is not what it was.

      Example--- The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) did not predict that Biden’s legislation would lead to 9% inflation. While the CBO warned that massive spending, especially from the American Rescue Plan Act—could increase demand and raise inflation somewhat, it did not foresee the historic spike that peaked at 9.1% in mid-2022.

      1. Willowarbor profile image60
        Willowarborposted 3 days agoin reply to this

        Deleted

        1. tsmog profile image83
          tsmogposted 3 days agoin reply to this

          You need to repost a link as the one you left is 'Page Not Found'.

          1. Willowarbor profile image60
            Willowarborposted 3 days agoin reply to this
            1. Sharlee01 profile image84
              Sharlee01posted 3 days agoin reply to this

              The first paragraph of this letter really says everything that matters at this stage. You seem to be jumping ahead and focusing on parts of the letter that don’t carry real weight until the bill has actually gone through the full legislative process and is signed by the president.

              "Dear Ranking Member Boyle:
              Today the Congressional Budget Office transmitted an estimate of the
              budgetary effects of the 2025 reconciliation bill, as ordered reported by the
              House Committee on the Budget on May 18, 2025.

              "1 CBO has not yet
              completed estimates of the effects of interactions among the titles of the
              legislation. "

              It sounds to me like the CBO is being very cautious in its response, simply laying out the process without making any firm predictions because the bill hasn’t been passed yet. They’ve provided a partial estimate of the budget impact, but they admit that their analysis isn’t complete, specifically, they haven’t factored in how different parts of the bill might interact with each other. What they are doing is explaining how the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act works, and what would happen if the bill added $2.3 trillion to the deficit over 10 years. In that case, the law would require sequestration, automatic spending cuts, to offset the deficit increase. But even then, it’s not up to the CBO to enforce that; it’s the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) that makes that call. So essentially, the CBO isn’t saying the bill will cause this outcome; they’re just outlining the consequences if it does. That’s why this statement feels more procedural than predictive.

              1. Willowarbor profile image60
                Willowarborposted 3 days agoin reply to this

                You've skipped over the triggering of paygo.  In what estimation does this bill NOT create the deficit needed to trigger the act?

                Because of the size of the deficits, because of the paygo act, that would trigger sequestration of Medicare, and it would total over $500 billion. The official figure that CBO confirms is $535 billion in cuts to Medicare.

      2. Willowarbor profile image60
        Willowarborposted 3 days agoin reply to this

        https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-0 … -PAYGO.pdf

        It is the deficit created by this bill that triggers the cuts to Medicare... This isn't a CBO prediction. This is the reality of PAYGO

        Unless lawmakers offset the deficit impact of the Republican bill or agree to waive the PAYGO requirements—which the GOP measure does not do—the Office of Management and Budget "would be required to issue a sequestration order not more than 14 days after the end of the current session of Congress (excluding weekends and holidays) to reduce spending by $230 billion in fiscal year 2026," the CBO said.

        Under PAYGO, automatic Medicare cuts are capped at 4%. The CBO estimates that the Republican legislation would trigger roughly $45 billion in Medicare cuts in 2026 and a total of $490 billion in cuts to the program between 2027 and 2034..

        https://hubstatic.com/17500061.jpg

        https://hubstatic.com/17500062.png

        It really is no wonder that they are doing their talk/negotiations in the middle of the night LOL

  8. Willowarbor profile image60
    Willowarborposted 3 days ago

    This is the GOP’s fiscal hypocrisy on full display. After exploding the deficit with billionaire tax cuts, now they’re using their own PAYGO rules to slash  billions from Medicare. Working-class seniors will  pay the price for handouts to the wealthy. This isn’t budget discipline. it’s class warfare.

  9. Willowarbor profile image60
    Willowarborposted 2 days ago

    The House just passed the grotesque bloated bill in a 215-214 vote. It will defund Medicaid and Medicare while decreasing taxes mainly for the uber wealthy and corporations. It will also expand our deficit and increase our national debt by trillions of dollars.  On to the Senate...where hopefully this thing gets dismantled.

    The budget bill really does  expose Trump’s ‘working-class party’ rhetoric as phony.

    1. DrMark1961 profile image99
      DrMark1961posted 32 hours agoin reply to this

      I think this points out the huge difference between MAGA and the Biden sycophants. Many MAGA followers are unhappy with this too but are not afraid to comment on that.
      When Bidens rulers passed the so-called inflation reduction act, which was actually a climate change bill that would increase prices, none of the leftists on this forum bothered to point out anything wrong with the bill, just like they would not point out the fact that Biden was suffering from dementia or Kamala Harris was drunk at her apperances and unable to answer basic questions.

  10. Sharlee01 profile image84
    Sharlee01posted 32 hours ago

    Here’s a detailed factual breakdown of key provisions from the 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill" (H.R. 1), based on its text and official summaries:

    1. Tax Relief and Economic Growth
    Permanent Tax Cuts
    The bill extends and makes permanent many of the tax cuts originally enacted in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. This includes keeping individual and corporate tax rates lowered through 2028 and beyond. The bill also permanently increases the standard deduction by $1,000 for single filers, heads of household, and married couples filing jointly. These cuts aim to increase taxpayers’ take-home pay and incentivize investment.

    New Tax Deductions for Workers
    A notable feature is the introduction of a tax deduction for tips and overtime pay, which is designed to reduce the taxable income of workers who earn these types of compensation, effectively increasing their net income.

    Child Tax Credit Expansion
    The child tax credit is raised to $2,500 per child and extended through 2028. This aims to provide families with additional financial relief to support child-rearing expenses.

    Increase in SALT Deduction Cap
    The bill raises the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, but this applies only to taxpayers earning under $500,000 annually. This benefits residents in states with higher local taxes by allowing them to deduct more of those payments on their federal returns.

    MAGA Savings Accounts
    The bill creates “Money Accounts for Growth and Investment” (MAGA accounts), which provide $1,000 per child to families, encouraging savings and long-term investment, aiming to build wealth from a young age.

    2. Healthcare Reforms
    Medicaid Work Requirements
    For Medicaid recipients with incomes above the federal poverty line, the bill imposes work or community engagement requirements as a condition of continued eligibility. This policy intends to encourage employment and reduce long-term dependency on government benefits.

    Restrictions on Gender-Affirming Care
    The bill prohibits Medicaid from covering gender-affirming medical treatments, including hormone therapy and surgeries, for people of all ages. This marks a significant shift in Medicaid coverage related to transgender healthcare.

    Federal Funding Ban on Abortion Services
    Federal funding is barred from clinics providing abortion services, including Planned Parenthood, directing funds toward other healthcare services and priorities instead.

    3. Border Security and Defense
    Border Wall Funding
    The legislation allocates approximately $46.5 billion for the construction and modernization of border barriers, focusing on strengthening physical security infrastructure along the U.S.-Mexico border.

    Immigration Enforcement Funding
    It provides an additional $5 billion for Customs and Border Protection (CBP) facilities and about $4.1 billion to hire more Border Patrol and CBP officers, aiming to improve enforcement capacity.

    Advanced Missile Defense Investment
    The bill dedicates $25 billion toward an advanced missile defense system, colloquially known as the “Golden Dome,” designed to enhance the United States' ability to defend against missile threats.

    4. Education and Workforce Development
    Expanded Pell Grant Eligibility
    The bill broadens access to Pell Grants by increasing eligibility and introducing Workforce Pell Grants that target trade school students and vocational training programs, supporting skills development for in-demand jobs.

    Student Loan Policy Changes
    It replaces previous student loan forgiveness programs with stricter repayment plans aimed at fiscal responsibility, focusing on more sustainable management of student debt.

    5. Fiscal Policy and Government Spending
    National Debt Ceiling Increase
    The bill raises the national debt ceiling by $4 trillion to avoid default and ensure uninterrupted government funding.

    Defense Spending Boost
    An additional $150 billion is allocated to defense, targeting modernization of military capabilities and national security enhancements.

    Nonprofit Oversight
    The legislation authorizes the U.S. Treasury to revoke tax-exempt status from nonprofit organizations found to be supporting terrorism, tightening oversight and accountability for charitable entities.

    I support the bill, it's not perfect, what bill ever is. Based on what Trump promised during his 2024 campaign, focusing on strong border security, rebuilding the military, boosting economic growth, and supporting families, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" seems to align with many of those priorities. The bill’s significant investment in defense and border security reflects the emphasis on protecting the country and controlling immigration. Expanding Pell Grants and introducing workforce-focused education initiatives also support economic opportunity, which fits with the campaign’s messaging about job growth and empowering Americans.

    1. Willowarbor profile image60
      Willowarborposted 26 hours agoin reply to this

      And the additions to the debt and deficit? The impact of millions losing medicaid, ACA coverage? Snap?

      1. Sharlee01 profile image84
        Sharlee01posted 26 hours agoin reply to this

        The Affordable Care Act (ACA) has not been repealed by Trump’s new bill. However, the bill includes significant cuts to Medicaid, which was expanded under the ACA. These changes could reduce the number of people who receive health coverage, particularly through Medicaid.

        The bill introduces new work requirements for Medicaid recipients and increases eligibility verification frequency, which may lead to loss of coverage for some individuals who do not meet the new criteria.

        SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) is also not eliminated, but the bill proposes  budget cuts over the next decade.

        Under the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," sweeping changes are proposed for Medicaid, introducing mandatory work requirements for certain adult recipients. Here’s a clear summary of what those changes include:

        Work Requirement Overview
        Beginning in 2026, adults aged 19 to 64 who are enrolled in Medicaid under the ACA expansion, primarily low-income, childless adults, must engage in a minimum of 80 hours per month in activities such as:

        Employment

        Job training

        Education

        Volunteering or community service

        Participants must report their compliance twice each year. Failure to meet the requirement or properly report activities can result in the loss of Medicaid coverage.

        Exemptions from Requirements
        The following groups are exempt from the work requirements:

        Individuals under age 19

        Pregnant women and those receiving postpartum care

        Seniors (typically those 65 and older)

        Disabled individuals

        Primary caregivers for dependents or disabled family members

        Veterans

        State Implementation and Oversight
        States will be required to set up systems to enforce and monitor the new work requirement rules. They must also handle exemptions and determine which beneficiaries are subject to the mandates. The federal government will oversee state compliance with these new obligations.

        Projected Impact
        The new requirements are expected to result in millions losing coverage over time, either due to non-compliance or difficulties with reporting. Previous attempts to implement similar mandates at the state level have led to unintended coverage losses tied more to paperwork burdens than actual failure to work.

        Additional Changes
        Beginning in Fiscal Year 2028, states must redetermine eligibility for Medicaid recipients under the ACA every six months. This rule aims to keep Medicaid rolls limited to individuals who remain eligible, but it also adds to the administrative load on both beneficiaries and state agencies.

        These changes reflect a policy shift toward linking public assistance to employment and civic participation. I argue it encourages independence and personal responsibility, while opponents caution about the risk of cutting off essential healthcare for vulnerable populations.

        Medicaid has been abused for decades. And our government has done nothing until now.

        1. Willowarbor profile image60
          Willowarborposted 26 hours agoin reply to this

          So there will be no impact in terms of throwing people off of medicaid, the ACA because of lack of expansion. Snap?  I mean what will happen to the uninsured when they're sick? Or when people are hungry because they no longer have snap benefits?

          1. Sharlee01 profile image84
            Sharlee01posted 26 hours agoin reply to this

            Those who do not meet the criteria will lose Medicare. You do realize there are tons of medicare abuses? 

            No one is going to lose their coverage under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) itself. The ACA remains in place and continues to provide health insurance options. However, the Medicaid part linked to the ACA could be affected for some people if they don’t meet new eligibility requirements that states may implement.

            So, while people won’t be “thrown off” the ACA or lose their ACA coverage, some might lose Medicaid coverage if they don’t qualify under these updated rules. The key point is that losing Medicaid coverage does not mean losing the ACA marketplace coverage; they could still buy insurance through the ACA exchanges, possibly with subsidies.

            In other words, Medicaid eligibility can change based on new state rules, but ACA protections and coverage options remain intact for everyone.

            SNAP is not going away because of President Trump’s new bill, but the legislation does include significant changes that could reduce benefits for many recipients. One of the main proposals in the bill is to expand work requirements. Currently, able-bodied adults aged 18 to 49 must work or participate in work-related activities to maintain their SNAP benefits. The new bill would extend these work requirements to include individuals aged 50 to 64, as well as parents with children aged 7 and older. If recipients fail to meet these requirements, they risk losing their benefits.

            1. gmwilliams profile image84
              gmwilliamsposted 24 hours agoin reply to this

              It's pure and simple.  I read the new bill requirements, of course, the liberal media is preaching doomsday a la Dickensian England.  Trump is trimming the excess fat of the government.  He is doing what he promised.   The government is not a parent.

              1. Sharlee01 profile image84
                Sharlee01posted 24 hours agoin reply to this

                They can say what they will about Trump’s “big beautiful bill,” but it’s about time we saw a piece of legislation that takes a serious shot at both protecting proven tax cuts and reining in wasteful government spending. This bill may not be perfect, few big reforms are, but it reflects a fiscally responsible approach that many Americans have been asking for.

                The continuation of tax cuts that helped families and small businesses weather tough economic times isn’t just smart policy, it’s common sense. What’s even more encouraging is that this bill doesn’t just spend, it pulls back money from bloated programs and federal agencies that have long been criticized for inefficiency and abuse. That’s not just trimming fat; it’s listening to years of concerns from watchdogs and taxpayers alike.

                Let’s be honest: Trump was elected on a controversial platform, and he won, in large part, because voters were tired of the status quo. If we truly believe in democratic outcomes, then yes, he deserves a shot to implement what he promised. This bill might ruffle feathers, but that’s often what real reform looks like. At the very least, it’s a step in the direction of a leaner, more accountable government, something we need now more than ever.

                1. Willowarbor profile image60
                  Willowarborposted 24 hours agoin reply to this

                  Protecting proven tax cuts for who? Every single analysis shows that this bill is heavily skewed to the top few percent in terms of income.

            2. Willowarbor profile image60
              Willowarborposted 24 hours agoin reply to this

              The  budget bill passed by the House, does not expand the Affordable Care Act. In fact, it's projected to significantly reduce health insurance coverage. ...

              https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/23/big-bea … rts%20say.

              Medicaid abusers? Are there studies or data that they have pointed to in terms of backing up those types of claims. I certainly can give my own  examples of people who work sparsely, their reasons for it, while receiving both Medicaid and snap.

              I am certain that my trump loving neighbor will lose his benefits as he is an abled bodied man capable of working 40 + hours per week.   Why does he work less than part-time? Well he has an adult daughter living there who can't be left alone for more than a few hours at a time due to her capacity... I wonder how many out there have a similar situation? Or they have memaw and peepaw's hospice beds set up at home?   

              Also, I'm sure you've looked at States who did implement their own increased  work requirements for Medicaid and I believe every single one of them reversed those policies.  They didn't really work to plan. 

              But again, I don't think anyone has really answered but the impact will be of millions who could potentially be without insurance? The impact on hospitals?  Rural hospitals particularly   that will go under.   

              In the realm of healthcare fraud, isn't  it most often the providers themselves, including doctors and other medical professionals, who are the primary culprits??

              1. Sharlee01 profile image84
                Sharlee01posted 23 hours agoin reply to this

                Yes, your statement is factually accurate: the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is not being expanded, but it is also not being fully repealed.

                The "One Big Beautiful Bill," recently passed by the House, includes significant changes to Medicaid, a key component of the ACA
                No one is going to lose their coverage under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) itself. The ACA remains in place and continues to provide health insurance options. However, the Medicaid part linked to the ACA could be affected for some people if they don’t meet new eligibility requirements that states may implement.

                So, while people won’t be “thrown off” the ACA or lose their ACA coverage, some might lose Medicaid coverage if they don’t qualify under these updated rules. The key point is that losing Medicaid coverage does not mean losing the ACA marketplace coverage; they could still buy insurance through the ACA exchanges, possibly with subsidies.

                You’ve actually made my point Ideally, your Trump-supporting neighbor, who is able-bodied and fully capable of working full-time, will no longer qualify for benefits under the new rules. That’s the intent behind these changes: to ensure assistance goes only to those truly in need, not to those who can support themselves but choose not to.

                Grampa and Grandma are covered under Medicare for hospice care.

                Once enrolled, Medicare's hospice benefit covers a comprehensive range of services related to your terminal illness, such as:
                Medicare

                Doctor and nursing services

                Pain relief and symptom management medications

                Medical equipment and supplies

                Physical and occupational therapy

                Speech-language pathology services

                Social work services

                Dietary counseling

                Grief and loss counseling for you and your family

                Short-term inpatient care for pain and symptom management

                Inpatient respite care to provide relief for your caregiver

                1. Willowarbor profile image60
                  Willowarborposted 23 hours agoin reply to this

                  Because the premium tax credits are not being renewed under this bill, ACA coverage will become unaffordable for millions.

                  "You’ve actually made my point Ideally, your Trump-supporting neighbor, who is able-bodied and fully capable of working full-time, will no longer qualify for benefits under the new rules.

                  I guess he can always lock his daughter in a room, right?

                2. Ken Burgess profile image71
                  Ken Burgessposted 22 hours agoin reply to this

                  Changes must be made...

                  Changes are coming whether we are ready or not...

                  We are in the midst of massive disruption... we are moving from the Industrial Age... and the Information Age... while still being in both... entering into the AI age... or the AGI age if you prefer...

                  The old ways of training for a trade or profession and going to work for someone in a factory for 25 years or being a doctor... much of what we have grown up considering career fields and lifelong professions is being disrupted... moreso today in the "white collar" jobs than the "blue collar".

                  Most of the "blue collar" fields where humans can be replaced with computers or robots have suffered this transition already...

                  Now they are replacing doctors, accountants, managers... "white collar" jobs with AI today... teledoc... melio...

                  Soon the truck drivers and the travel industry will be hit... as Cabs, Trucks, and Planes are controlled by FSD AI.  Before you know it they will make most travel illegal if not FSD AI controlled.

                  We have had 30 years of sellout politicians making themselves rich as they kick these problems down the road for the next elected stooge to deal with...

                  Trump... and by extension Gabbard, Kennedy, Musk, etc. are trying to deal with a BROKE economic system where we are spending MORE on interest on our debt... than on our Defense Budget...

                  Think on that... we waste more per year on Defense (wars) than the entire rest of the world combined... the entire world, ALL other nations, do not spend close to what America does on Defense...

                  And we are now spending more on our INTEREST on the National Debt... than we do on Defense... or ALL of our other government funded programs (IE Medicaid and Social Security)...

                  We got problems... not even tough love can solve them...

 
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