One Big Beautiful Bill or a Ball of BS?
On Tuesday, Trump lauded a House budget blueprint that may enable Congress to pass much of his legislative agenda in what he called “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL.” That budget, which passed a committee vote and could hit the House floor as soon as next week, lays out targets for legislation that would extend tax cuts and increase the federal deficit. It would also almost certainly make major cuts to programs that serve the poor.
The Cuts
Medicaid is likely to be the largest target for cuts to achieve the $880 billion in budget savings set out in the legislation.
But the committee also has the ability to include cuts to Medicare, and may also be able to find some savings by reversing Biden-era regulations.
Education and Work Force
Cut by at least $330 billion...
The instructions could require cuts to nearly half of all spending on programs the committee can consider.
The biggest category of spending for the committee is school nutrition programs. The budget document also suggested some cuts to school breakfasts, and to lunch programs for schools that serve low-income children.
Agriculture
Cut by at least $230 billion
The bulk of the spending overseen by the committee is on food benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and most of the rest is on farm programs like crop insurance. If the cuts hit the programs overseen by the committee equally, it would amount to a 13 percent cut. If they were directed to SNAP alone, that would amount to a 21 percent cut.
Spending increases:
The budget also includes a small amount of increased spending, primarily focused on border security and the military.
The largest spending item:
Tax cuts
Up to $4.5 trillion in tax reductions
Extending $4 trillion in expiring tax cuts passed during the first Trump administration represents the biggest policy priority in the bill, both in emphasis and dollars.
The budget would allow the tax-writing Ways and Means committee to decrease federal revenue by as much as $4.5 trillion over a decade, an allowance that may mean new tax cuts, too.
The tax cut extension benefits the wealthiest taxpayers the most, in raw dollars and as a share of their income.
Deficits and debt
Because the tax cuts and spending increases significantly outweigh the spending cuts in the budget, it would directly add $2.8 trillion to deficits over the next 10 years. (It could ultimately add an estimated $3.4 trillion to the national debt because of the costs associated with increased borrowing.) Tables released with the House bill assume aggressive economic growth that would help cover the bulk of this increase, but budget experts say the assumptions are unrealistic.
Also included in the bill: a $4 trillion increase to the debt limit.
For me, This budget plan reflects a stark betrayal of Trump’s campaign promises to protect families who struggle financially while providing tax windfalls for the wealthy...Adding to with what I have read recently
House Budget Allows At Least $2.8 Trillion of Deficit Increases by The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (Feb 21, 2025)
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/house-budget … -increases
"The House of Representatives will soon consider a budget resolution for Fiscal Year (FY) 2025, which was reported favorably out of the House Budget Committee on February 13. The budget’s reconciliation instructions pave the way for a bill that could add at least $2.8 trillion to deficits through FY 2034, or $3.4 to $4 trillion of debt including interest costs.
In this piece, we explain that:
** The marked-up House budget allows lawmakers to add at least $2.8 trillion to deficits through FY 2034 or $3.4 trillion including interest.
** As a result of this debt increase, debt held by the public would reach 125 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by FY 2034, compared with 117 percent under current law.
** Deficits under the House budget would average 6.8 percent of GDP over the decade, compared with 5.8 percent under current law.
You must be in the top 10%?
"Evidence suggests that the TCJA's corporate tax changes failed to produce the promised investment or wage increases for the majority of U.S. workers. The benefits of the tax changes disproportionately favored high-income households and profitable corporations. Claims made by the Trump administration that the average household would see a substantial increase in income did not materialize. Research indicates that earnings did not significantly change for workers in the bottom 90% of the income distribution, while those in the top 10% saw increase.
The TCJA's business tax changes have permanently reduced federal revenues. Claims that the tax plan would pay for itself have not been substantiated. Studies indicate that increases in economic activity only offset a small fraction of the revenue loss attributable to the tax cut.
CBO Finds TCJA Expirations Would Boost The Economy. (2024). https://taxpolicycenter.org/daily-deduc … st-economy
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