Something interesting! Negative partisanship is the main issue.

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  1. tsmog profile image85
    tsmogposted 6 weeks ago

    New research suggests that concerns about threats to democracy match the economy and immigration as issues shaping the 2024 election by Ipsos (Mar 1, 2024)
    https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/new-researc … es-shaping

    Setting it up . . .

    "In this study, Ipsos experimented with three different sets of options in response to our standard “main issue” question. These options included Sample A/Standard/Standard which used our normal list of issues, Sample B/Democracy/Democracy which included a slightly condensed list of issues from Sample A/Standard and the item “political extremism and threats to democracy”, and Sample C/Political/Political which included a similar condensed list of issue and the items “Joe Biden and woke Democrats” and “Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans.”

    [Edit: After publishing I took note the graphic is smaller than I imagined it would be. Oops! Right click on the image and open in a new tab or go to the article.]

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Slide1_175.JPG

    "Washington DC, March 1, 2024 — New Ipsos research finds that when presented with explicitly political options, two in five Americans say the main issue facing the country is the other side, a concept referred to as negative partisanship. This finding suggests that, for a significant portion of Americans, the election is more about achieving political victory than about a set of issue areas. Many conventional “main issue” survey questions appear to be missing this phenomenon which potentially explains strong Democratic performance in off-cycle elections, even as the public gives Democrats weak marks on the ‘typical’ main issues of the economy or immigration."

    Be sure to check out Ipsos's Detailed Findings a relatively short read after the graphic.

    PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY for the Ipsos polling study.
    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/fil … opline.pdf

    Does this poll/study offer new insight on the pulse of the voters?

    Do you think the Trump & Biden campaign strategists paid attention to it?

    Should they?

    Thoughts

  2. Nathanville profile image92
    Nathanvilleposted 6 weeks ago

    I studied the data in both links, but in not living in America it’s difficult to appreciate the nuances of how American voters are currently feeling and thinking (“the pulse of the voters”); so I can’t make any useful contribution to this forum on the two questions you ask.

    But out of curiosity, I did make a direct comparison with your IPSOS ‘Public Opinion Poll’ and the latest YouGov Tracker (updated 1st April); and compiled both sets of data into a spreadsheet for easier comparison (screen dump below).

    Some of the obvious observations from the two sets of data is that:-

    •    In the UK both the Economy and the NHS (the two highest Issues of Concerns in the UK), are of major concerns to voters across all political parties.

    •    Immigration is of major concern to ONLY Conservative voters in the UK (63%), which is almost double the concern of even the Republican voters in the USA (33%).

    •    Some of the other ‘issues’ when UK & USA are compared gives rise to some surprising results e.g. Defence & Security (which included terrorism) at 19% is more of a concern in the UK than the USA, even when you add Defence (6%) and Terrorism (4%) together for the USA data (10%).

    •    But other comparisons are no surprise e.g. Environment (climate change etc.) is a much bigger voting issue in the UK than in the USA.

    •    What does surprise me, following our recent conversion on the subject, is that ‘Housing’ doesn’t seem to be a major voting issue; and nothing on ‘Tax’, considering Americans always seem to be bemoaning about taxes on these forums?

    •    And of course, thinks like inequality/discrimination, morality and Abortion don’t even appear on the YouGov Tracker because they are not major voting issues in the UK.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/tra … he-country

    https://hubstatic.com/16982357_f1024.jpg

    1. Nathanville profile image92
      Nathanvilleposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

      Hot Off the Press – Just released late last night:-

      https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ … -400-seats

      Directly relevant to ‘Major Issues’ voting come the General Election in the UK later this year, is the latest Opinion poll by YouGov which strongly indicates that many Conservative Ministers in Government are at high risk of losing their seats in the General Election later this year; including the following:-

      •    Rishi Sunak PM – Current Prime Minister

      •    Jeremy Hunt MP -  Currently Chancellor of the Exchequer

      •    Jacob Rees-Mogg MP – Currently in the Government as Minister for Business, Energy an Industry.

      •    Michelle Gove MP – Currently in Government as Minister for ‘Levelling UP’.  A new Government Department created by Boris Johnson when he was Prime Minister to pour extra Government spending into Labour Safe seats in Northern England, as a way of buying votes:  It worked for the 2019 General Election e.g. the Conservatives won a lot of Labour Safe seats in the North during that Election; but it’s not working this time.

      •    Penny Mordaunt – MP currently campaigning within the Conservative Party to become the next Conservative Party leader when the Conservative Party kick Rishi Sunak out of Office for losing the next General Election.

      https://youtu.be/NAJGweYuA4M

      This Opinion Poll comes in spite of the fact that just a few weeks ago the Conservative Government cut income tax on wages (NI tax) for all by 2% in the misguided belief that it would win back some support for them from the British voters!

      If the above senior Conservative MPs do lose their seats then a defeated and demoralised Conservative Party will also be headless, in that not only would they lose their current leadership, but could also lose the politician who would most likely have been chosen by the Conservative Party as their next leader to replace Rishi Sunak – Oh what fun and games!

      Me thinks the Conservatives will be in ‘panic mode’ after their predicted humiliating defeat in the coming local government elections on 2nd May.

      1. tsmog profile image85
        tsmogposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

        hmmm . . . interesting with the knowledge I have of the UK politics from our dialogues. Remind me once again what party you align with, though I know  you favor socialism. I know for sure you are not a conservative.

        1. Nathanville profile image92
          Nathanvilleposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

          In answer to your question; I’m a socialist, which rules out any right wing party, which in England is just the Conservatives and Reform UK (Reform UK being hard right, and the Conservatives being soft right).

          The two main left-wing political parties in England are Labour and Greens; the Greens being further left than Labour.

          The Liberal Democrats are in the middle (centralist party that is neither left nor right), and their political ethos is what’s known as a ‘mixed economy’ e.g. a balance between capitalism and socialism.

          For my part; which political party do I align with?

          Normally I would support Labour, because it’s was founded by the Trade Unions (as their political wing), and to this day the Trade Unions play an important role in the selection process of Labour candidates, the Labour Leader, and policy making e.g. the Trade Unions have 33% of the votes for the Labour Leadership elections; party members have 33% of the votes, and registered supporters have 33% of the votes.

          How does the Labour leadership election work?  https://youtu.be/nLddKNvwvYk

          However, I’m quite happy to support the Green Party, and sometimes vote for them in local elections; and this year (as a family decision) we are debating whether to vote Green in the General Election because the Greens have increased their ‘support base’ in Bristol quite dramatically in recent years, and stand a good chance of winning in our Constituency in this General Election.

          If push came to shove e.g. I lived in Bath and not Bristol, then I would vote Liberal Democratic as a tactical vote to keep the Conservatives out e.g. Bath is a Liberal safe seat with the Conservatives in 2nd place in General Elections.

          1. theraggededge profile image97
            theraggededgeposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

            Reform aren't 'hard right'. A lot of their suggested policies are quite socialist. There are no viable hard right parties in the UK, yet some people like to pretend there are.

            Also, the declining Conservative party is no more 'right' than your Greens.

            1. Nathanville profile image92
              Nathanvilleposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

              Yeah, such as?

            2. Nathanville profile image92
              Nathanvilleposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

              Yeah, right! 

              What Reform UK’s policies are socialist? 

              Reform is a right-wing populist political party; far more right-wing than the current Conservative Party:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK

              And if you are not convinced with the Wikipedia article, I suggest you take a good hard look at their policies on their website; for example:

              1.    On the Reform UK website they state “There are only 2 sexes and 2 genders” (typical hard right wing view).

              2.    Reform UK is anti EU.

              3.    Reform UK has typical hard right wing views on immigration.

              4.    Reform UK has typical right wing tax policies.

              5.    Reform UK, according to their website, wants to partially privatise the civil service.

              6.    Reform UK clearly states on its website that it “would cut NHS waiting times within two years by increasing the use of private healthcare operations.”

              7.    Reform UK makes it clear on their website that they are anti-climate change policies, and don’t believe in cutting carbon emissions.

              8.    Clearly stated on the Reform UK website is that they want to mine the vast energy reserves of coal, oil, natural gas, shale gas and lithium under our feet in the UK, and are very much in favour of fracking to achieve their goals – Even the Conservative Party has shied away from that.

              9.      On the Reform UK website they clearly state that they are strongly in favour of 'Deregulation' - which is very right-wing.

              Below:  Link to the Reform UK Policies on their website:
              https://assets.nationbuilder.com/reform … 5Oct23.pdf

              Finally, how on earth do you make out that the Greens are right-wing???

          2. tsmog profile image85
            tsmogposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

            Thanks! Enlightening having some knowledge of you. The bottom line is you definitely will not vote the conservative ticket.

            Me? I voted Republican from 1972 through 2012 as what is known as a 'sheeple'. I learned that term when I first participated in this forum back when I joined HubPages 13 years ago. Around 2010 in sort of a protest I re-registerd as a 'No Party Preference' abandoning the Republican Party. It was a 60% emotional decision and 40% based on reasoning.

            From Mashable (Apr 27, 2017) Wake up, sheeple: Your favorite political insult is now officially a word
            https://mashable.com/article/sheeple-wo … am-webster

            For the 2016 presidential election, Trump vs. Clinton, I did a write in vote for Theodore (Teddy) Roosevelt. In the beginning he was a Republican and was president from 1901 - 1909.  He ran again (1912) and lost the nomination for the Republican Party for president. He formed the Bull Moose Party or the Progressive Party and ran under that banner. He lost.

            He had a long illustrious career in my view. Two things I admired is what he did as Assistant Secretary to the Navy (1897 - 1898). As president he created the foundation for the formation of the National Park Service becoming a reality a decade later. Old 'boy scout' stuff in me was the catalyst for that.

            A long way back to in 2020 I once again voted for Teddy Roosevelt not voting for Trump or Biden. This election cycle, 2024, I am undecided, today. Personally, I think both political 'parties' have gone off the rails moving toward the extremes. Long story.

            I have both conservative views and liberal views tugging at me both in the social area and the traditional areas such economics and such.

            1. Nathanville profile image92
              Nathanvilleposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

              How can you vote for a politician who has long been dead (Theodore (Teddy) Roosevelt); my friend in New York did try to explain it to me some years ago, but I was none the wiser, and more confused afterwards? 

              I wasn’t familiar with the word ‘sheeple’ (although I think I remember you mentioning it before); but yes, we have plenty of voters in Britain who fits that description – especially the less well educated, lower working class, who can so easily be misled by right-wing political spin in the Sun Newspaper, or the left-wing political spin in the Mirror.

              The other thing I don’t understand, although my New York friend did try to explain it to me is the “registering as a 'No Party Preference'”?  In the UK, your vote, and voting intention, is private between you and your ballot box.

              1. tsmog profile image85
                tsmogposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

                Firstly answering the first question, "How can you vote for a politician who has long been dead (Theodore (Teddy) Roosevelt)?"

                Stepping back a moment, a write in candidate in the State of California for president has to be certified to count. In other words, my 'write-in' vote for Teddy did not count. It was the same as not voting for the presidential race. Unsure how other states treat write in votes.

                In other words, it did not take away from the actual candidates on the ballot regarding the total of votes. If it had counted it would have taken away from Biden and Trump by increasing the count (%) of that certified write-in candidate. At least that is the way I see it while open to discussion/correction.

                Now, why did I vote for Teddy, even though I knew it was the same as not voting? Principle!! Though it is arguable if it was a wasted vote, in 'my' mind it was a vote with 'good conscious'. A way of looking at it, though probably arguable, is I 'acted' in the physical realm.

                If I had simply not voted, it would be same as saying 'I don't care' or 'my vote does not count' or some such. I would in all honesty be left with saying to others if inquired and chose to disclose it, "I didn't vote." There arrives my thoughts/feelings of what voting means. In other words, is it a privilege, a duty, a right, and on and on. I fall into it is a duty as a citizen.

                Instead I proudly say, "I voted for Teddy Roosevelt". Of course, voting is a private matter and one needs not expose how they voted and that should be respected in society as I see it. Anyways, my action leads to discussions of self-consciousness as well as the 'Self'.

                So, one could some it up with I'm weird. ha-ha cool

                With the registering to vote and choosing a party when doing so the main cause is to be able to vote in primary elections. States have different formats for the primaries. Oh yeah the primaries are for choosing the nomination of candidate for president by party. And, other elected offices like Senators.

                Rather than explaining here go to the next link, Primary election types by state by Ballotpedia.
                https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_election_types_by_state

                Another reason for registering with a party is statistics.

                1. Nathanville profile image92
                  Nathanvilleposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

                  You’re not weird; after reading and digesting your comprehensive take on the ‘vote for Teddy Roosevelt’ option (which does seem weird to me), I think I can see where you’re coming from!

                  Having said that, I struggle to grapple with it in that we don’t have anything like it in the UK; the nearest analogy I can think of for elections in the UK is where people vote, but deliberately ‘spoil’ their ballot paper e.g. “intentionally spoiling their ballot so as to get their dissatisfaction recorded”, as explained at 2 minutes and 15 seconds into the short video below:-

                  What is a spoiled ballot paper? https://youtu.be/Wfsvm8UQxIY

                  Thanks for the explanation and link on ‘primaries’ in your closing paragraphs; it’s finally clicked (a lightbulb moment).  Where I was struggling to understand is that in the UK we don’t have ‘primaries’; the nearest we have to ‘primaries’ are your ‘closed primaries’ e.g. each political party in the UK have their own method of selecting their candidates and party leader; most political parties involve party members in the election process.

                  For the national government e.g. in Parliament, the leader of the political party who wins the General Election becomes Prime Minister.

                  Here is the Generic candidate selection process by Party in the UK for candidates (the selection process of party leaders being a different process); albeit each political party has its own rules, so there will be variations – and the selection process for party leaders can be different e.g. politicians (MPs) in both the Conservative and Labour party make the first section from existing MPs before the membership can vote on the remaining candidates for party leader, and in the case of Labour, the Trade Unions get 33% of the vote.

                  Generally around a 7 Weeks Process: (which is a lot quicker than the almost 1 year it takes to select the Presidential Candidate in the USA)

                  •    Admin period
                  •    All party members contacted, and given two weeks to submit nominations for candidates.
                  •    Ballot papers printed and sent to all party members
                  •    Two weeks given to vote

                  The General Election process in the UK is just 6 weeks from start to finish - a lot shorter that the Presidential Election in the USA, which seems to drag on for two years!

                  Here’s the number of Party Members, who can vote in the selection process for candidates and party leaders - by Political Party in the UK:  And this is out of a voting population of 48.8 million people.

                  •    Labour Party Members = 366,604
                  •    Conservative Party Members = 172,437
                  •    Reform UK Party Members = 115,000
                  •    Liberal Democrats Party Members = 90,000
                  •    Green Party Members = 53,126

                  1. tsmog profile image85
                    tsmogposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

                    Thanks, Arthur!

                    Forgive me this is long . . .

                    I believe I have a good understanding for the voting/balloting process. I 'think' I have a grasp on the 7 week process. Yes, it seems so the process for electing the president is much lengthier. How is the prime minister elected? Do you get to vote on that? I place an equivalency of the prime minister to the presidency.

                    Our process kind of goes like the following

                    ** The campaigning can begin who knows when relative to when someone declares they are running for president.

                    [Here it is important to mention voting is by state with each having their own rules and procedures.]

                    Filing deadline varies by state for a person to make a candidacy official with the president and the congressional seat if one is due for the ballot. A congressional seat is either for the senate or house of representatives.

                    Primary or caucus varies by state when they are held for party candidate selection process. They occur anywhere from Jan 15 - Sept 10. A caucus is a convention style selection process and a primary is a ballot process.

                    Caucuses are for the presidency only to the best of my knowledge. Some states have a caucus for both parties and some only one party. Caucuses are by party. (See link following for list of states and territories for which process is used.)

                    Primaries, too, are by party as I shared earlier. Yes, they are ballots, but a registered Democrat ballot is different from a Republican ballot as well an independent or 'no party preference. That is another reason why one declares a party when registering to vote. I think mentioned that earlier.

                    A short 1:27 min video on caucuses and primaries.
                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nrmZFrpKTU

                    Then comes the National Conventions.
                    "To become the presidential nominee, a candidate typically has to win a majority of delegates. This usually happens through the party's state primaries and caucuses.

                    State delegates go to the national convention to vote to confirm their choice of candidates. But if no candidate gets the majority of a party's delegates during the primaries and caucuses, convention delegates choose the nominee. This happens through additional rounds of voting.

                    At the convention, the presidential nominee officially announces who will run with them for vice president."

                    The next step, is the actual voting. Again, each state has there own rules. So, it can seem confusing and I'll try to keep it simple as best as I can.

                    The official day for voting in the US is November 5th. All voting ends per polling place hours. Mail-in ballots are by the postmark of Nov 5th.

                    However, states do have early voting, absentee ballots, mail-in ballots, and some states have 'all mail-in balloting. That means they are sent to everyone. States have different rules for absentee ballots in the sense of what 'excuses' are acceptable. Some states simply have the option to select to vote by mail rather than at a polling place.

                    California is one such state that is all mail-in voting. So, we no longer have absentee ballots or mail-in ballots in the sense of being requested as an option. But, you can choose to vote at a polling place.

                    What is the difference between absentee ballot and mail-in ballot. Note, again, it varies by state.

                    "Absentee ballot is often specifically used to refer to a ballot that is mailed when a person can’t vote in person (For instance physically unable), while the term mail-in ballot is used in the context of voting policies that enable all people to vote by mail." Also, military personnel use absentee ballots when stationed abroad.

                    Confusing? Voting is contentious between the two main parties Republican/right wing/conservative and the Democrats/left wing/liberal-progressive. One is election security/integrity a Republican go to topic. There biggest contention is mail-in voting fraud.

                    Some links that may help are:

                    2024 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DATES AND CANDIDATE FILING DEADLINES FOR BALLOT ACCESS That is a PDF file.
                    https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-conte … pdates.pdf

                    State Poll Opening and Closing Times (2023) by Ballotpediea
                    https://ballotpedia.org/State_Poll_Open … mes_(2023)

                    Then comes the electoral college for the presidency. Most states have a winner take all concept. Two don't. In other words, the electors follow the majority vote of the state. To win the electoral college the candidate has to meet the threshold of the majority or 270 electoral votes.

                    A 1:47 video about how the electoral college works
                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0Sq-PvDYjM

                    Backing up a step or two. Nov 5th is the day of voting

                    ** Nov 17the the electors vote in the states
                    ** Dec 25th the official electoral votes are received by President of the Senate. They are recorded by the archivist.
                    ** Jan 3rd the archivist transfers the certified votes to Congress
                    ** Jan 6th Congress counts the electoral votes. At that time objections can be raised and debated before a states electors are counted.

                    Once completed, again, a majority of 270 is needed to be elected president. If not, then the House of Representatives choose the president by a vote. Each state gets one vote. So, it takes 26 votes to win. So, when a third party candidate is running with sufficient electoral college votes then one sees the possibility of not getting the majority of electoral college votes.

                    ** Jan 20th the president is sworn in to office. It is known as Inauguration Day.

                    This year there is an outside possibility of that happening. Long story for another time.

    2. tsmog profile image85
      tsmogposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

      Thanks Arthur. Interesting.

      At this time I noted two things. The YouGov poll is not a base of 100 whereas the Ipsos poll is. Second, the YouGov poll per the full question asked for the top three issues only. That affects the percentages as I see it. However, both polls indicate what the priorities are themselves for the UK and US with their political parties.

      What is notable with the three different polls by Ipsos is how far skewed the #1 issue becomes with the addition of their unique new additions. With Poll B is Democracy (Threat) and with Poll C is Political, i.e. Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

      What is interesting for 'me' is actually reading the methodology sharing the actual questions asked with results. Also, the controlled variable = poll A compared to the other two with the addition of the two independent variables.

      What is seen is with Poll C is the relationship of immigration and the economy remains the same as with Poll A that being immigration and then the economy. However, with Poll C immigration drops below the economy. There are others, yet those two are today in the top three consistently per polls.

      What I don't know is if the same options were available for all three polls other than the addition of their independent variables. Perhaps, the 'other' and 'I don't know' designations and their percentage encompasses those oddities.

      1. Nathanville profile image92
        Nathanvilleposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

        Yeah, it’s not a fully ‘like for like’ comparison between the IPSOS Polls and the YouGov Tracker.  The YouGov link isn’t an ‘as at’ ‘opinion poll’, it’s a tracker e.g. public opinion re-sampled every couple of weeks; giving all political parties valuable information on trends over time of public opinion – which helps political parties gauge how public opinion reacts (almost in real time) to their political policies.  So in that respect the YouGov Tracker is a useful tool for political parties in the UK.

 
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