Betting odds or polling? Which to rely on? Take a peek.

  1. tsmog profile image87
    tsmogposted 10 days ago

    Betting odds swing toward Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. Here's why, what it means by delaware online (Oct 17, 2024)

    "Place your bets!

    The gambling lines for the 2024 presidential election are swinging toward former President Donald Trump. Offshore bettors continue to drive up that probability because they predict Trump has a better chance of winning battleground states."

    https://www.delawareonline.com/story/ne … 714125007/

    Let's get to the nitty-gritty first. Are betting odds a good predictor?

    How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?

    "The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization – in 2016 when then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump throughout the campaign, only to lose and in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat 8-to-1 odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey."

    And . . .

    "As of Thursday (10/17) at 7 a.m. ET, Trump's probability of winning topped 61% on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, for the first time since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Betfair Exchange, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform, predicted on its temperature gauge Thursday morning that Trump would likely win. Presidential election betting can't be done legally in the U.S.

    At the article see map of battleground states favoring which candidate based on the Polymarket. What is the Polymarket?

    "Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcome of world events. Participants can deposit USDC cryptocurrency through the Polygon network and trade shares that represent the likelihood of specific outcomes occurring in the future."

    See more at Wikipedia . . .
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket

    Thoughts, criticisms, accolades, and/or commentary?

    replyreport
 
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