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At what rate does science fiction becomes 'real'?
There are many technological marvels we have today that were once in science fiction. Is trend measurable in decades or centuries?
I think the rate was slow many years ago, and is speeding up now. There was a relatively large time gap between Jules Verne and actual fact, but now it is measurable in decades. Example: Dick Tracy's wrist phone! And Tom Clancy and his plane impacting the Capitol, was definitely made fact with the Twin Towers! Maybe not exactly S.F., but creativity that tragically also became fact.
It would be an interesting bit of research for someone with the time to do. There is a vast body of SF literature spanning 100 years or so - so maybe you'd need a big team and some powerful software, too!
I might suggest a rephrasing of the question. How often does science fiction predict the science fact of the future?
There is certainly a subgenre of SF that is more speculative science than pure fiction and the writers of such SF are usualy science-trained and knowledgeable in the areas they cover.
If anyone comes up with the figures, I'd love to know!
You know...I can't figure out how I'd put an actual numerical rate to this, nor what units I would assign it (inventions per second, month, year?) but this is a really interesting question. I laughed when I saw it and though "Jules Verne" and all the things he wrote about that became a reality.
You pose a very good question---actually, I was going to say the exact same thing that joanveronica did---Verne's a great example of things which we thought couldn't happened and have....
Veronica, you took the words right out of my mouth, or should I say mind and fingers?....
Take care all
I think it is shortening.
Jules Verne to the moonshot about a hundred years.
Arthur C Clarke described something like today's smartphones in the 60s and they arrived maybe 50 years later.
Right now extrapolations from today are, if it is a good idea, likely to arrive in 20 years ( three do printers creating Burger and Fries) .
Something radically new, if it is possible, will take maybe 100 years.
So the short answer is it depends: on how easy it is to develop the required technologies and how long before there is a demand.
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