X Factor 6 (2009) Betting Odds with 7 Remaining
Olly Murs Takes Lead as Favorite
Last week, Lucie Jones became the latest victim of the John and Edward "train run amok" on the 6th season of X Factor and was eliminated from the competition. That leaves Stacey Solomon as the last remaining girl in the competition, and her betting odds are now sitting at about 4.5 or 5 to 1. This leaves Stacey as the fourth favorite right now. She is trailing Olly Murs, Danyl Johnson, and Joe McElderry in odds among the bettors, and the remaining guys are trailing by wide margins.
I have talked a lot about diversity in a contestant, and Olly has shown enough versatility to now catapult him into the favorite spot to win this season of X Factor. Among bettors, he is sitting at about 2 to 1 to win. In the last two weeks, Olly has established himself as the clear "most improved" contestant. I don't think contestants actually improve, though. It's just that certain contestants find better ways to show the talent they already possessed but hadn't yet found the right groove or mix to display it on a reality TV show like X Factor.
As the last female contestant left, it remains to be seen whether Stacey will benefit from the "gotta vote for the last girl" crowd. I personally don't think this is a strong factor, but certainly some fans of these shows can often be heard saying "I want a girl to win this time" and other such silly things that have nothing to do with the actual contestants. However, it is far from certain that that ever has an effect on the voting.
It appears that Danyl has weathered the storm of media attacks on his character, whether they be true or false. After supposedly (was it the real order last time?) finishing in the Bottom 2, he escaped the Bottom 2 this week, and the judges seem to have changed their tune and are back on his side. It seems this whole thing is scripted, but so be it.
Personally, though, I think Danyl, while a good singer, seems to have almost reached his peak from a versatility standpoint. His method of singing seems to be the almighty "glory note." Just go out there, sing fairly straightforward for most of the song, and throw in a glory note or two. This is a very unoriginal, tired way of singing, and he needs to show more musical creativity than this. I originally came out and declared Danyl the favorite, but it seems he has let Olly come from way behind and establish himself as the new favorite.
Joe McElderry certainly has a strong contingent of followers, as well. However, in my personal opinion, Joe seems to have reached his vocal peak in much the same way Danyl has. These two singers are very repetitive in their styles, which certainly could be enough to win. But it would be nice to see more than the standard pop style Joe drags out on a weekly basis. This may or may not be the reason Joe has dropped in the betting odds. He was the favorite two weeks ago and has dropped to third on average, trailing very closely behind Danyl.
Lloyd Daniels has suffered from confidence and is now even behind John and Edward in the betting odds. The numbers vary widely, but Lloyd is about 50 to 1 to win. Lloyd was the token "young teenage boy" on the show. He could have been replaced with thousands of other unpolished singers, and his lack of experience and frankly vocal quality have been exposed over the last three weeks. It's just a matter of time before Lloyd gets the boot.
Jamie Archer, still my personal favorite but now relegated to a longshot, is now about 12 to 1, and twins Jedward (John and Edward) keep surviving at about 13 to 1. John and Edward have been consistently criticized for their talent or lack thereof, and they finally landed in the Bottom 2 this week. Although I am personally rooting for Jamie to catch fire, I think these two acts just haven't built the kind of fanbase needed to launch them to victory.
It should be noted that betting odds change on a weekly and sometimes daily basis, but the guys at the top with only 6 or 7 groups left are usually the real favorites. I do believe that at least 3 of the top 4 now (Olly, Danyl, Joe, and Stacey) will be in the Final 4. There may be one surprise in the Top 4, but that is the group to look to if you are trying to pick a winner.
Here are my previous articles on X Factor odds: